25th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference
Rethinking the Policy Toolkit in a Turbulent Global Economy
November 14-15, 2024
The IMF will hold the 25th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference on November 14-15, 2024, in Washington D.C., USA.
With inflation rates gradually aligning with targets, the immediate challenge for the global economy lies in achieving a 'soft landing'—finely balancing the reduction of policy rates without jeopardizing economic stability or inciting future inflationary pressures. This task is made intricate by differentiated inflationary dynamics and the necessity for distinct policy approaches across economies. In addition, many countries need strategies for fiscal consolidation to address elevated debt levels with limited fiscal space, emphasizing the urgency of credible, medium-term adjustments.
In this context, the 2024 IMF Annual Research Conference will delve into the nuanced priorities for central banks and fiscal authorities across the world. Special emphasis will be placed on strategies to complete the inflation realignment process, lowering debt burdens, while catalyzing a durable uplift in living standards. Particular attention will be devoted to the importance of maintaining fiscal discipline while safeguarding investments in priority areas and supporting vulnerable populations. Financial regulation will be examined in terms of its effects on the domestic economy as well as its influence on cross-border capital flows. Further, the conference will address the imperative of multilateral cooperation in fortifying the global economy against fragmentation, while fostering international trade. The conference will bring together academics and policy makers, promote innovative research and provide a platform for a fruitful exchange of views.
The conference is open to the public and registration is required (registration will include all conference sessions, the Mundell-Fleming Lecture, and the Policy Panel). Please note that registration for this event is now closed. Registered attendees will be required to present photo identification on entering the IMF at 1900 Pennsylvania Avenue, N.W., Washington D.C. For questions regarding the conference, please email ARC@imf.org.
Agenda
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Thursday, November 14, 2024 |
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9:25–9:45 am |
Opening Remarks Kristalina Georgieva (Managing Director, IMF) and Gita Gopinath (First Deputy Managing Director, IMF) |
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Session I: Post-COVID Inflation Dynamics |
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9:45–12:00 pm |
Francesco Bianchi (Johns Hopkins University), Qingyuan Fang (Johns Hopkins University), and Leonardo Melosi (University of Warwick) Discussant: Tim Willems (Bank of England) |
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The Causal Effects of Global Supply Chain Disruptions on Macroeconomic Outcomes: Evidence and Theory Xiwen Bai (Tsinghua University, China), Jesús Fernández-Villaverde (University of Pennsylvania), Yiliang Li (University of International Business and Economics, China), and Francesco Zanetti (University of Oxford) Discussant: George Alessandria (University of Rochester) |
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Boragan Aruoba (University of Maryland), Andres Fernandez (IMF), Daniel Guzman (University of British Columbia), Ernesto Pasten (Central Bank of Chile), and Felipe Saffie (University of Virginia, Darden School of Business) |
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12:00–1:30 pm |
Lunch break |
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Policy Panel: Reassessing Policy Tools for Current and Future Challenges Moderator: Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (Economic Counsellor and Director, Research Department, IMF) |
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1:30–3:00 pm |
Panelists: |
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3:00–3:15 pm |
Coffee break |
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Session II: Capital Flows and Market Volatility |
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3:15–4:45 pm |
Sudden Stops Under the Microscope Cecilia Dassatti (Central Bank of Uruguay), Rodrigo Lluberas (ORT University Uruguay), Pablo Ottonello (University of Maryland and NBER), and Diego J. Perez (New York University and NBER) Discussant: Julian di Giovanni (Federal Reserve Bank of New York) |
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Macro-Financial Implications of the Surging Global Demand (and Supply) of International Reserves Enrique G. Mendoza (University of Pennsylvania and NBER) and Vincenzo Quadrini (University of Southern California, CEPR and NBER) Discussant: Charles Engel (University of Wisconsin) |
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Friday, November 15, 2024 |
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Session III: Fiscal Policy and Debt Sustainability Chair: Vítor Gaspar, Director, Fiscal Affairs Department, IMF |
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9:00–10:30 am |
From Fiscal Deadlock to Financial Repression: Anatomy of a Fall Discussant: Martin Uribe (Columbia University) |
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Predicting Debt Distress in Low-Income Countries Discussant: Leonardo Martinez (IMF) |
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10:30–10:45 am |
Coffee break |
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Session IV: Political Economy and Macroeconomic Policies |
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10:45–12:15 pm |
The Politics of Debt in the Era of Rising Rates Marina Azzimonti (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond) and Nirvana Mitra (CAFRAL) Discussant: Francisco Roch (Universidad Torcuato Di Tella) |
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Estimating the Effects of Political Pressure on the Fed: A Narrative Approach with New Data Thomas Drechsel (University of Maryland, NBER & CEPR) Discussant: Juan Rubio-Ramirez (Emory University) |
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12:15–1:30 pm |
Lunch break |
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Mundell-Fleming Lecture: Do Cash Transfers Stimulate the Macroeconomy? * |
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1:30 pm - 3:00 pm |
Valerie Ramey (Senior Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford) Introduction by Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas (Economic Counsellor and Director of the Research Department, IMF) |
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3:00–3:15 pm |
Coffee break |
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Session V: Monetary Policy Transmission and Challenges Chair: Tobias Adrian, Financial Counsellor and Director, Monetary and Capital Markets Department, IMF |
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3:15–5:30 pm |
Cyclical Inflation Inequality and Monetary Policy Sophia Chen (IMF) and Ting Lan (IMF) Discussant: Andres Drenik (The University of Texas at Austin) |
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Strike while the Iron is Hot – Optimal Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve Peter Karadi (European Central Bank and CEPR), Anton Nakov (European Central Bank and CEPR), Galo Nuno (Bank for International Settlements, Bank of Spain, and CEPR), Ernesto Pasten (Central Bank of Chile), and Dominik Thaler (European Central Bank and CEPR) Discussant: Alberto Martin (Center for Research in International Economics, University Pompeu Fabra, BSE and CEPR) |
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Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: Proverbial Concerns, Novel Evidence Ariadne Checo (IMF), Francesco Grigoli (IMF) and Damiano Sandri (BIS and CEPR) Discussant: Gaston Navarro (Federal Reserve Board) |
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5:30 pm |
Closing Remarks |
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Conference Organizing Committee: Giovanni Melina (IMF), Emine Boz (IMF, Co-Editor of the IMF Economic Review), Andrei Levchenko (Editor-in-Chief of the IMF Economic Review and the University of Michigan), Mariarosaria Comunale (IMF), and Prachi Misha (former IMF, former Co-Editor of the IMF Economic Review)
Conference Coordinators: Tracey Lookadoo and Nicole Jales
Disclaimer: This web page contains links to papers that will be presented at the 25th Jacques Polak Annual Research Conference (ARC). The views expressed in these papers are those of the authors only, and the presence of them, or of links to them, on the IMF website does not imply that the IMF, its Executive Board, or its management endorses or shares the views expressed in the papers.