Country Reports
2019
May 9, 2019
Republic of Poland: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Stress Testing and Systemic Risk Analysis
Description: This Technical Note on Stress Testing and Systemic Risk Analysis for the Republic of Poland discusses that Poland’s financial system is dominated by the banking sector, with significant state participation and foreign ownership. The banking system shows resiliency to adverse shocks in the aggregate, however, some other systemically important institutions (OSIIs) show weakness. While the adverse retail event had a limited impact, the wholesale event affected some large banks in the system. Interbank analyses showed that any destabilization to affiliating banks could cause severe distress to the affiliated cooperative banks. This finding strengthens the reasons for the authorities to address identified weaknesses in the affiliating banks. Moreover, banks large holdings of sovereign bonds and the substantial presence of state-controlled banks cause a significant sovereign-bank nexus in Poland. In order to avoid incentives for banks to hold sovereign debt, the Financial Sector Assessment Program team recommends that the Financial Institution Asset Tax is redesigned on grounds of both financial stability and efficiency.
May 8, 2019
The Gambia: Request for a Staff-Monitored Program; Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This paper discusses The Gambia’s request for a Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). The Gambia is enjoying a strong economic recovery, with good prospects of sustained growth over the medium term. In order to consolidate gains and establish a track record for a possible arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, the authorities are requesting a new SMP covering 2019. The SMP will help build an adequate track record of performance for a potential Fund-supported program. Enhanced domestic revenue mobilization and expenditure control will help create room for much needed public investment and poverty-reducing social spending. The program’s strategy includes fiscal policy to focus on domestic revenue mobilization, improved treasury management and spending prioritization. A prudent borrowing strategy and strengthened oversight of state-owned enterprises, with the focus on containing contingent liabilities, is expected to contribute to anchoring debt sustainability. Monetary policy will remain active to curb inflation pressures and banking supervision vigilant to foster financial stability.
May 7, 2019
Uganda: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper tries to answer the question of how to promote employment in Uganda. It also discusses key stylized facts including labor market challenges, an overview of the labor market, and employment characteristics. Although issues relating to the determinants of employment are gaining momentum in Uganda, the literature is largely based on economic reports and qualitative studies. Uganda has implemented some social programs aimed at creating employment specifically for youth and women, though coverage is limited. These programs aim at providing an enabling environment for the private sector to create jobs and build the skills and requisite knowledge to make youth and women more employable. The existing social programs are good initiatives to address some of the labor market issues, though their coverage remains limited with funding constraints identified as one of the main challenges. Creating quality jobs will require comprehensive policies to promote headline growth and ensure inclusive growth, including measures to improve education and address challenges in gender and youth.
May 7, 2019
Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Democratic Republic of Timor-Leste
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that Timor-Leste remains a fragile post-conflict nation with weak human and institutional capacity and large infrastructure gaps. The main challenge facing Timor-Leste is to effectively manage its petroleum wealth to reduce public-sector dependence, diversify the non-oil economy, generate jobs for a young and rapidly-growing population, and raise living standards. Political uncertainty constrained public spending in 2017–18, resulting in a sharp contraction of non-oil GDP in 2017 and flat growth in 2018. The report discusses that risks to the outlook are closely tied to the success of fiscal and structural reforms to maintain macroeconomic stability, ensure long-run fiscal sustainability, and facilitate economic diversification. The consultation recommends that a fiscal strategy should be pursued to improve expenditure control and efficiency, mobilize domestic revenue, and commit to protecting the wealth of the Petroleum Fund. Ongoing efforts to strengthen public financial management and promote good governance are crucial to ensure public investment efficiency and enhance the quality of public services.
May 7, 2019
Uganda: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uganda
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that Uganda has made impressive development gains and achieved the Millennium Development Goal on halving poverty ahead of schedule. However, going forward, Uganda must create over 600,000 jobs per year to keep up with its growing population, while making further progress on poverty reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals. The authorities’ development strategy centers on infrastructure and a nascent oil sector. If investments proceed as planned, growth could range between 6 and 7 percent over the next five years. It is important to adopt an effective fiscal anchor and strengthen the budget process to become more binding for fiscal outcomes. It is also recommended to support human capital development and make growth more inclusive by improving the efficiency of public services and providing adequate budget allocations for social sectors. The consultation also suggests strengthening implementation and institutions of the governance and anti-corruption framework. Ensure that the Anti-Money Laundering/Countering the Financing of Terrorism regime is brought in line with international standards.
May 6, 2019
People’s Republic of China—Macao Special Administrative Region: 2019 Article IV Consultation Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Macao SAR
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that while more moderate than in the past, gaming and tourism revenue in Macao Special Administrative Region picked up as the economy returned to expansion since mid-2016. Progress with diversification towards mass-gaming and nongaming tourism, together with the continued China gaming monopoly, are expected to deliver growth of around 4 percent in the medium term. Risks are tilted to the downside, mainly emanating from Mainland China. Prudent macroeconomic policies and high reserves provide strong buffers against shocks. In addition to supporting diversification, fulfilling social needs, and maintaining macroeconomic stability, the policies priorities explained in the report will reduce external imbalances. The report also discusses that the current housing macroprudential stance and related fiscal measures appear broadly appropriate. A broader set of policies are advised to support housing affordability, where continued efforts to boost housing supply will be key.
May 3, 2019
Republic of Lithuania: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
Description: This Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE) paper on the Republic of Lithuania estimated Lithuania’s public sector financial position to take a more comprehensive view of public finances in Lithuania. While Lithuania’s overall assessment is comparable to or better than other EU Member States that have undergone an FTE, there is room for further improvement. While the Lithuanian authorities publish a large volume of fiscal reports, they are somewhat fragmented and not easily comparable. The paper also highlights that fiscal risk analysis and management also meets good or advanced practice in many areas but are slightly weaker than the other pillars of the evaluation. It is recommended to consolidate the present array of fiscal reports into a smaller number of user-friendly reports that improve the consistency and comparability of information, as well as its transparency. The report also provides a more detailed evaluation of Lithuania’s fiscal transparency practices and recommended reform priorities.
May 1, 2019
Republic of Uzbekistan: Strengthening Fiscal Transparency
Description: This paper on the Republic of Uzbekistan focuses on the fiscal transparency in the country. This report provides further guidance to support implementation of the fiscal transparency evaluation recommendations and the government’s plans to strengthen transparency. The IMF team worked with the authorities to further strengthen the application of the Government Finance Statistics Manual standards, improve the budget classification, presentation and reporting; strengthen fiscal risk disclosure and address other fiscal transparency-related issues. Steps have been taken to improve the coverage of Government Finance Statistics reports; however, further work is required. Wide-ranging reforms to improve the coverage, reliability, quality and accessibility of fiscal reports are being developed. A Presidential Decree, approved in August 2018, sets out measures to enhance budget openness and transparency, increase the engagement of citizens in the budget process, and strengthen parliamentary and public scrutiny of the budget.
May 1, 2019
Republic of Uzbekistan: Technical Assistance Report-Fiscal Transparency Evaluation Update
Description: This Fiscal Transparency Evaluation report on the Republic of Uzbekistan provides a summary of progress made since that evaluation was conducted and is based on practices in place at the time of a Fiscal Affairs Department visit. Uzbekistan has improved its fiscal transparency practices against eight of the Code’s standards since the June evaluation. Most improvements have been accomplished in the areas of fiscal forecasts and budgeting, and fiscal risk disclosure. A road map has also been developed to expand the coverage and quality of fiscal reports and better align these with international standards, further enhance fiscal risk disclosure, and ensure greater parliamentary scrutiny of the budget. Work has also commenced to identify all off-budget fiscal activities, and, the government has committed to including these in future budget and government finance statistics (GFS) reports. Efforts are also underway to expand the coverage of GFS reports, so that they reflect all general government fiscal transactions, including those of nonmarket state-owned enterprises.
May 1, 2019
Guinea: Technical Assistance Report-Report on Technical Assistance Mission on External Sector Statistics
Description: This Technical Assistance report on Guinea addressed issues like: improvement of the surveys on migrant remittances and informal trade; perform detailed technical work to improve external sector statistics (ESS); and participation in the coordinated direct investment survey and the quarterly external debt statistics database. The mission observed that the recommendations from the previous technical assistance mission had been satisfactorily implemented. The report also describes that the timeliness of ESS, based on international standards, should be improved, mainly for the international investment position and the quarterly balance of payments statistics. In order to contribute to progress in the areas discussed in the report, the mission made a one-year detailed action plan, with priority given to the recommendations of importance in improving ESS. The recommendation on reporting reinvested earnings of direct investment enterprises, net increases in insurance company liabilities, and income on reserve assets has partially been implemented.