Benin: Selected Issues

July 2, 2019

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Benin: Selected Issues, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2019) accessed November 23, 2024

Also available in: français

Summary

This Selected Issues paper discusses a growth-at-risk (GaR) model which is used to compute a distribution of expected GDP growth for Benin. The model predicts growth rates of ~6.7 percent for 2019 and a range of 6.4–6.8 percent in the medium-term (depending on the specification). Risks to future growth are assessed to be tilted to the downside. 2019 GDP growth is estimated around 6.7 percent, on average, across several specifications. The model considers external factors (world trade, global financial conditions, trade policy uncertainty, and US consumer sentiment), country-specific exposures to external factors (commodity terms of trade and trade-partner growth), and domestic factors (domestic financial conditions, fiscal policy, and the exchange rate). The analysis reveals that growth projections estimated both for the median and mode are slightly higher conditioned on 2018 data, yet when expectations about 2019 are considered using World Economic Outlook projections they fall. Overall, risks seem to be tilted to the downside. Medium term growth is estimated at between 6.4 and 6.8 percent. Risks to growth remain tilted to the downside, yet less skewed than in the short term.

Subject: Banking, Expenditure, National accounts, Personal income, Private investment, Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP), Revenue administration, Tax administration core functions

Keywords: Administration, Asset declaration regime, Auditing government activity, Authority, Average return on assets, Benin, CR, DEA efficiency score, GaR growth projection, GDP growth distribution, Global, Governance weakness, Interest income, ISCR, Personal income, Private investment, Public investment and public-private partnerships (PPP), Sub-Saharan Africa, Tax administration core functions

Publication Details

Pages:

54
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Country Report No. 2019/204
Stock No:

1BENEA2019002
ISBN:

9781498323864
ISSN:

1934-7685

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