Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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January 1, 0001
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1998
September 1, 1998
Optimal Fiscal Policy and the Environment
Description: The paper studies the setting of optimal fiscal policy in a second-best world with environmental externalities. The optimal second-best pollution tax is shown to lie below the first-best Pigovian tax, particularly if substitution between labor and polluting intermediate inputs is easy, the labor supply curve is more elastic, and preexisting taxes are large. The optimal level of public abatement is derived from the modified Samuelson rule and is larger if society cares more for the environment, public funds are inexpensive, and public abatement is relatively productive. The analysis also shows that the Samuelson rule should be revised if allowance is made for nonseparabilities in preferences.
September 1, 1998
Crises, Contagion, and the Closed: End Country Fund Puzzle
Description: This paper analyzes the behavior of closed-end country fund discounts, including evidence from the Mexican and East Asian crises. We find that the ratio of fund prices to their fundamental value increases dramatically during a crisis, an anomaly that we denote the “closed-end country fund puzzle.” Our results show that the puzzle relates directly to the fact that international investors are less (more) sensitive to changes in local (global) market conditions than domestic investors. This asymmetry implies that foreign participation in local markets can both help dampen a crisis in the originating country, and amplify the contagion to noncrisis countries.
September 1, 1998
Recovery and Growth in Transition Economies 1990–97: A Stylized Regression Analysis
Description: This paper analyzes the determinants of growth in 25 transition economies during 1990–97. The paper’s main finding is that macroeconomic stabilization, structural reform, and reduction of government expenditures are key to achieving sustainable growth. Although the initial effect of reforms on output may be negative, over time the best growth performances are in those countries with the greatest progress in implementing reforms. The analysis also confirms that although adverse initial conditions hurt growth, their effect is small compared to the other factors.
September 1, 1998
From Autarky to Integration: Imitation, Foreign Borrowing, and Growth
Description: The effects on growth of the integration of an autarkic country into the world economy are analyzed, focusing on the differing roles of imitation and innovation in human capital accumulation. The country initially concentrates on imitation of foreign knowledge; subsequently, as it approaches the knowledge frontier, innovation plays a greater role. Late developers catch up with the rest of the world more rapidly than early developers, reflecting the relatively large imitation opportunity available to them. Restrictions on foreign borrowing reduce the speed of adjustment to the steady state and lower growth and welfare for the country that imposes them.
September 1, 1998
The Uzbek Growth Puzzle
Description: After the break-up of the Soviet Union, Uzbekistan’s output fell less than in any other former Soviet Republic, and growth turned positive in 1996/97. Given the country’s hesitant and idiosyncratic approach to reforms, this record has suprised many observers. This paper first shows that a standard panel model of growth in transition systematically underpredicts Uzbek growth from 1992-1996, confirming the view that Uzbekistan’s performance consitutes a puzzle. It then attempts to resolve the puzzle by appropriately extending the model. The main result is that Uzbekistan’s output performance was driven by a combination of low initial industrialization, its cotton production, and its self-sufficiency in energy.
September 1, 1998
Can Short-Term Capital Controls Promote Capital Inflows?
Description: In an economy à la Diamond and Dybvig (1983), we present an example in which foreign lenders find it profitable to invest in an emerging market if, and only if, the emerging market government imposes taxes on short-term capital inflows. This implies that capital controls that are effective in reducing the vulnerability of emerging markets to financial crises may increase the volume of capital inflows.
September 1, 1998
Perspectiveson the Recent Currency Crisis Literature
Description: In the 1990s, currency crises in Europe, Mexico, and Asia have drawn worldwide attention to speculative attacks on government-controlled exchange rates and have prompted researchers to undertake new theoretical and empirical analysis of these events. This paper provides some perspective on this work and relates it to earlier research. It derives the optimal commitment to a fixed exchange rate and proposes a common framework for analyzing currency crises. This framework stresses the important role of speculators and recognizes that the government’s commitment to a fixed exchange rate is constrained by other policy goals. The final section finds that some crises may be particularly difficult to predict using currently popular methods.