Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects

September 1, 1998

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Jeromin Zettelmeyer, and Günther Taube. Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 1998) accessed December 22, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

What explains Uzbekistan’s unusually mild “transformational recession” and its moderate recovery during 1996-97? We examine potential biases in output measurement, the role of “special factors”—including initial production structure, natural resources, and public investment policies—and sectoral output developments. The main findings are (i) Uzbekistan’s relatively favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone; (ii) public investment has had no significant effects on growth; (iii) the mildness of Uzbekistan’s transitional recession can be accounted for by its favorable initial production structure and its self-sufficiency in energy; (iv) unless reforms are significantly accelerated, medium-term growth prospects are mediocre.

Subject: Agricultural commodities, Agricultural sector, Commodities, Economic sectors, Expenditure, Foreign exchange, Macrostructural analysis, Public investment spending, Structural reforms

Keywords: Agricultural commodities, Agricultural sector, Baltics, Consumer goods, Growth, Output, Output performance, Private sector, Public investment spending, Reform policy, Structural reforms, Sustainability, Transition, Unmeasured Uzbekistan effect, Uzbek authorities, Uzbek experience, Uzbek growth experience, Uzbek growth path, Uzbekistan, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

30
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 1998/132
Stock No:

WPIEA1321998
ISBN:

9781451855357
ISSN:

1018-5941

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