Working Papers
2024
May 10, 2024
Forecasting Tail Risk via Neural Networks with Asymptotic Expansions
Description: We propose a new machine-learning-based approach for forecasting Value-at-Risk (VaR) named CoFiE-NN where a neural network (NN) is combined with Cornish-Fisher expansions (CoFiE). CoFiE-NN can capture non-linear dynamics of high-order statistical moments thanks to the flexibility of a NN while maintaining interpretability of the outputs by using CoFiE which is a well-known statistical formula. First, we explain CoFiE-NN. Second, we compare the forecasting performance of CoFiE-NN with three conventional models using both Monte Carlo simulation and real data. To do so, we employ Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) as our main specification of the NN. We then apply the CoFiE-NN for different asset classes, with a focus on foreign exchange markets. We report that CoFiE-NN outperfoms the conventional EGARCH-t model and the Extreme Value Theory model in several statistical criteria for both the simulated data and the real data. Finally, we introduce a new empirical proxy for tail risk named tail risk ratio under CoFiE-NN. We discover that the only 20 percent of tail risk dynamics across 22 currencies is explained by one common factor. This is contrasting to the fact that 60 percent of volatility dynamics across the same currencies is explained by one common factor.
May 10, 2024
Conflicts and Growth: The R&D Channel
Description: Violent conflicts are typically associated with a long-lasting drag on economic output, yet establishing causality based on macro-data remains as a challenge. This study attempts to build causality in the conflict-growth nexus by exploiting within-country variation across industries’ technological intensity. It identifies a channel through which conflicts can impact growth, i.e., by hindering R&D activities. The analysis is based on industry-level data from two-digit manufacturing industries for a large sample of countries over the last four decades. The results show that conflicts lead to a decline in labor productivity growth, particularly in industries with higher technological intensity. The estimated magnitude of the differential effect of conflicts on labor productivity growth in high-tech industries is large. Moreover, the additional labor productivity loss in those industries in the years of conflicts does not seem to be offset in the post-conflict period neither. The findings offer insight into the observed patterns of durable declines in income in the aftermath of conflicts, considering the role of technological progress and innovation in long-term economic growth.
May 3, 2024
Challenges Facing SSNs in Emerging and Developing Economies:
Description: We show how the standard social welfare framework can be used to assess the performance of social safety nets (SSNs) in terms of targeting efficiency and budget effort. We apply this framework to the World Bank’s ASPIRE database and find that the variation in poverty alleviation achieved by SSNs in emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) is driven mainly by variation in budget effort. Increasing transfer spending is therefore key to strengthening SSNs in EMDEs. However, the inability of many EMDEs to finely target transfers to poor households means the required spending increases are prohibitive over the short term, especially in low-income countries. This emphasizes the importance of enhancing targeting efficiency and we discuss how the use of proxy-means testing can contribute to this emphasizing the importance of careful design to manage the horizontal inequity inherent in such an approach to targeting.
May 3, 2024
Strengthening Social Protection to Pave the Way for Technological Innovation: Evidence from the U.S.
Description: This paper investigates the impact of automation on the U.S. labor market from 2000 to 2007, specifically examining whether more generous social protection programs can mitigate negative effects. Following Acemoglu and Restrepo (2020), the study finds that areas with higher robot adoption reduced employment and wages, in particular for workers without collegue degree. Notably, the paper exploits differences in social protection generosity across states and finds that areas with more generous unemployment insurance (UI) alleviated the negative effects on wages, especially for less-skilled workers. The results suggest that UI allowed displaced workers to find better matches The findings emphasize the importance of robust social protection policies in addressing the challenges posed by automation, contributing valuable insights for policymakers.
May 3, 2024
The Impact of Reduced Commuting on Labor Supply and Household Welfare: A Post-Pandemic Analysis
Description: This paper examines the impact of changes in commuting time on welfare and labor supply in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic. Utilizing data from the American Time Use Survey, we observe a shift in commuting time and working hours across occupations with varying ability of telework after the pandemic. We develop a household model of labor supply that accounts for commuting time, and we characterize how changes in commuting time impact individuals' and spouses' labor supply. We calibrate the model to the data. Our findings reveal that the observed post-pandemic decline in commuting time yields significant welfare gains: between 1.5 to 4.5 percent of consumption equivalents for households where at least one spouse experiences reduced commuting.
May 3, 2024
Monetary Policy Transmission in Emerging Markets: Proverbial Concerns, Novel Evidence
Description: Doubts persist about the effectiveness of monetary transmission in emerging markets, but the empirical evidence is scarce due to challenges in identifying monetary policy shocks. In this paper, we construct new monetary policy shocks using novel analysts’ forecasts of policy rate decisions. Crucial for identification, analysts can update forecasts up to the policy meeting, allowing them to incorporate any relevant data release. Using these shocks, we show that monetary transmission in emerging markets operates similarly to advanced economies. Monetary tightening leads to a persistent increase in bond yields, a contraction in real activity, and a delayed reduction in inflation. Furthermore, monetary policy impacts leveraged firms more strongly.
April 26, 2024
Dominant Drivers of Current Account Dynamics
Description: We estimate shocks that explain most of the variation in the current account at business cycle frequencies and over the long run. We then explore, using a standard open-economy macro model, which macroeconomic shocks are behind the empirical dominant drivers of the current account at business-cycle frequency. Rather than financial shocks or aggregate shocks to supply or demand, shocks to the relative demand between home and foreign goods are found to play a pivotal role in current account dynamics.
April 26, 2024
The Nexus of Climate and Monetary Policy: Evidence from the Middle East and Central Asia
Description: This paper investigates the effects of climate shocks on inflation and monetary policy in the Middle East and Central Asia (ME&CA) region. We first introduce a theoretical model to understand the impact of climate risks on headline and food inflation. In particular, the model shows how climate shocks could affect the path of policy rates through food prices. We then use local projections to estimate the impact of climate shocks on headline and food inflation. The results show that price stability is more easily achievable under positive climate conditions. Overall, our findings shed new light on the importance of considering climate-related supply shocks when designing monetary policy, particularly in countries where food makes up a significant part of the CPI-basket.
April 26, 2024
Cash Flow Analysis of Fiscal Regimes for Extractive Industries
Description: Mining and petroleum projects share characteristics distinguishing them from other sectors of the economy, which has led to the use of dedicated fiscal regimes for these projects. The IMF’s Fiscal Affairs Department uses fiscal modeling to evaluate extractive industry fiscal regimes for its member countries, and trains country officials on key modeling concepts. This paper outlines important preconditions needed for effective fiscal modeling, key evaluation metrics, and emphasizes the importance of transparent modeling practices. It then examines the modeling of commonly-used fiscal instruments and highligts where their economic impact differs, and how fiscal models can inform fiscal regime design.
April 26, 2024
The Pitfalls of Protectionism: Import Substitution vs. Export-Oriented Industrial Policy
Description: Industrial policies pursued in many developing countries in the 1950s-1970s largely failed while the industrial policies of the Asian Miracles succeeded. We argue that a key factor of success is industrial policy with export orientation in contrast to import substitution. Exporting encouraged competition, economies of scale, innovation, and local integration and provided market signals to policymakers. Even in a large market such as India, import substitution policies in the automotive industry failed because of micromanagement and misaligned incentives. We also analyze the risk tradeoffs involved in various industrial policy strategies and their implications on the 21st century industrial policies. While state interventions may be needed to develop some new capabilities and industries, trade protectionism is neither a necessary nor a sufficient tool and will most likely be counterproductive.