IMF Working Papers

Conflicts and Growth: The R&D Channel

By Can Sever

May 10, 2024

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Format: Chicago

Can Sever. Conflicts and Growth: The R&D Channel, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2024) accessed December 22, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

Violent conflicts are typically associated with a long-lasting drag on economic output, yet establishing causality based on macro-data remains as a challenge. This study attempts to build causality in the conflict-growth nexus by exploiting within-country variation across industries’ technological intensity. It identifies a channel through which conflicts can impact growth, i.e., by hindering R&D activities. The analysis is based on industry-level data from two-digit manufacturing industries for a large sample of countries over the last four decades. The results show that conflicts lead to a decline in labor productivity growth, particularly in industries with higher technological intensity. The estimated magnitude of the differential effect of conflicts on labor productivity growth in high-tech industries is large. Moreover, the additional labor productivity loss in those industries in the years of conflicts does not seem to be offset in the post-conflict period neither. The findings offer insight into the observed patterns of durable declines in income in the aftermath of conflicts, considering the role of technological progress and innovation in long-term economic growth.

Keywords: Conflict, Economic growth and development, High-tech, Innovation, R&D, War

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    42

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 2024/098

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA2024098

  • ISBN:

    9798400276569

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941