Working Papers
2022
March 18, 2022
Digitalization and Tax Compliance Spillovers: Evidence from a VAT e-Invoicing Reform in Peru
Description: Our study uses administrative data on firm-to-firm transactions and quasi- experimental variation in the rollout of electronic invoicing reforms in Peru to study the diffusion of e-invoicing through firm networks and its effect on tax compliance. We find that voluntary e-invoicing adoption is higher amongst firms with partners who are mandated to adopt e-invoicing, implying positive technology adoption spillovers. Spillovers are stronger from downstream partners and from export-oriented firms. Firms are less likely to continue transacting with a partner who has been mandated into e-invoicing, with the effect only partially reversed if both firms adopt e-invoicing, suggesting that network segmentation may occur. Smaller firms who transact with partners mandated into e-invoicing report 11 percent more sales and pay 17 more VAT in the year that their partner is mandated to adopt e-invoicing, suggesting positive spillovers in tax compliance behavior for this subset of firms.
March 18, 2022
Estimating the Employment and GDP Multiplier of Emergency Cash Transfers in Brazil
Description: We estimate the subnational employment and GDP multiplier of Brazil's 2020 federal cash transfers to vulnerable households. Using two-stage least squares regressions we estimate a formal employment multiplier and then apply an analytical transformation to recover an implied GDP multiplier in the range of 0.5-1.5. The lower bound of this range lies below most estimates in the literature, which may result from the exceptional constraints imposed by the pandemic on supply chains and consumption. Nevertheless, even using the lower end of our range implies that federal cash transfers played an important role in supporting employment and GDP.
March 18, 2022
Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa Fragile States: Evidence from Panel Estimations
Description: Fragile states in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face challenges to respond to the effects of climate shocks and rising temperatures. Fragility is linked to structural weaknesses, government failure, and lack of institutional basic functions. Against this setup, climate change could add to risks. A panel fixed effects model (1980 to 2019) found that the effect of a 1◦C rise in temperature decreases income per capita growth in fragile states in SSA by 1.8 percentage points. Panel quantile regression models that account for unobserved individual heterogeneity and distributional heterogeneity, corroborate that the effects of higher temperature on income per capita growth are negative while the impact of income per capita growth on carbon emissions growth is heterogeneous, indicating that higher income per capita growth could help reduce carbon emissions growth for high-emitter countries. These findings tend to support the hypothesis behind the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the energy consumption growth literature, which postulates that as income increases, emissions increase pari passu until a threshold level of income where emissions start to decline.
March 18, 2022
The Availability, Methodological Soundness, and Scope of Consumer Price Statistics in 2020
Description: This paper analyzes the availability, methodological soundness, and scope of Consumer Price statistics in IMF member and non-member countries in 2020. Consumer price statistics are instrumental in the development of monetary policy and in monitoring economic developments. They also often have administrative uses such as in determine wage increase or seting pension payments. This analysis examines the appropriateness of the current set of global consumer price statistics for current policy development and highlights regions where further development may be required. The analysis is based on the results of a new annual survey of CPI compilation practices in 207 economies as of the end of 2020. The survey was completed by statistical authorities between March 2021 and June 2021. In cases of non-response, IMF staff estimates were used. IMF Staff estimates were based on information taken from the IMF’s Dissemination Standards Bulletin Board (DSBB) and country websites to provide the status of consumer price index compilation practices. These data summarize the following key aspects; i) Production, publication and scope of the Consumer Price Index Program, ii) Data sources, iii) CPI compilation methods and iv) Concepts and classifications.
March 11, 2022
Nowcasting GDP - A Scalable Approach Using DFM, Machine Learning and Novel Data, Applied to European Economies
Description: This paper describes recent work to strengthen nowcasting capacity at the IMF’s European department. It motivates and compiles datasets of standard and nontraditional variables, such as Google search and air quality. It applies standard dynamic factor models (DFMs) and several machine learning (ML) algorithms to nowcast GDP growth across a heterogenous group of European economies during normal and crisis times. Most of our methods significantly outperform the AR(1) benchmark model. Our DFMs tend to perform better during normal times while many of the ML methods we used performed strongly at identifying turning points. Our approach is easily applicable to other countries, subject to data availability.
March 4, 2022
South Africa: The Financial Sector-Sovereign Nexus
Description: Globally, financial institutions have increased their holdings of domestic sovereign debt, tightening the linkage between the health of the financial system and the level of sovereign debt, or the “financial sector-sovereign nexus,” during the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. In South Africa, the nexus is still relatively moderate, albeit rising, and the increased focus of the Prudential Authority on the associated risks provide reassurance. Options to mitigate such risks through the use of regulatory measures can be explored. However, absent the necessary fiscal consolidation and structural reforms, risks from the nexus to both the financial system and the sovereign will increase.
March 4, 2022
The Nexus Between Public Enterprise Governance, Financial Performance, and Macroeconomic Vulnerabilities: An Application to Moldova
Description: Strong governance frameworks for public enterprises have long been an anchor of stability and efficiency underpinning their financial operations and performance. Cross-country experiences with the adoption of robust legal, regulatory and institutional arrangements—in line with international best practices— proved critical in reducing well-known risks and vulnerabilities from such companies, clarifying the role of the state, improving the management of state assets, and ensuring a level playing field for the private sector to prosper. Moldova’s large public enterprise sector of over 900 companies faces elevated risks that amplify fiscal and macroeconomic vulnerabilities and undermine market competition, productivity, and private investment. Moldova stands to greatly benefit from strengthening its public corporate governance regime to put its public enterprises on a stronger footing, address vulnerabilities, and improve market structure.
March 4, 2022
Strengthening the WAEMU Regional Fiscal Framework
Description: This paper assesses the adequacy and effectiveness of the WAEMU fiscal framework along three pillars that have proven to effectively support fiscal discipline in monetary unions—common fiscal rules (including adequacy of numerical ceilings as well as elements of design and enforcement), shared public financial management systems, and coordination mechanisms for decentralized fiscal policies. We undertake a calibration of regional debt and fiscal deficit ceilings taking into account different macroeconomic tradeoffs and risks and conclude that numerical ceilings that prevailed before the suspension of the fiscal rules remain adequate and strike the right balance between growth and fiscal sustainability. The paper also proposes reform options to strengthen the WAEMU regional fiscal surveillance framework, with a view to more effectively supporting fiscal discipline.
March 4, 2022
Patterns and Drivers of Health Spending Efficiency
Description: Demands for ramping up health expenditures are at an all-time high. Countries’ needs for additional health resources include responding to the COVID-19 pandemic, closing gaps in achieving the Sustainable Development Goal in health in most emerging and developing countries, and serving an ageing population in advanced economies. Facing limited fiscal space for raising health spending focuses policymakers’ attention on ensuring that resources are used efficiently. How sizable are the potential gains—in terms of freeing up resources and delivering better health outcomes—from improving health spending efficiency? How has efficiency evolved over the past decade? What can policymakers do to boost it? This paper estimates health spending efficiency across countries using bias-corrected data envelopment analysis and finds sizable differences in efficiency across countries, in particular among emerging and developing countries compared to advanced economies. The examination of the evolution of efficiency reveals that important efficiency gains have been made in the majority of countries. The paper also explores some of the key drivers of efficiency and finds that lower income inequality, less corruption, and health interventions oriented at expanding population access to basic health services are associated with greater efficiency.
March 4, 2022
Financial Concerns and the Marginal Propensity to Consume in COVID Times: Evidence from UK Survey Data
Description: We study how household concerns about their future financial situation may affect the marginal propensity to consume (MPC) during the COVID-19 pandemic. We use a representative survey of UK households to compute the MPC from a hypothetical transfer of £500. We find that household expectations play a key role in determining differences in MPCs across households: households concerned about not being able to make ends meet have a 20% higher MPC than other households. Our findings suggest that policies targeted to vulnerable and financially distressed households may prove more effective in stimulating demand than providing stimulus payments to all households.