Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa Fragile States: Evidence from Panel Estimations

March 18, 2022

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Rodolfo Maino, and Drilona Emrullahu. Climate Change in Sub-Saharan Africa Fragile States: Evidence from Panel Estimations, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2022) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: IMF Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to encourage debate. The views expressed in IMF Working Papers are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF, its Executive Board, or IMF management.

Summary

Fragile states in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) face challenges to respond to the effects of climate shocks and rising temperatures. Fragility is linked to structural weaknesses, government failure, and lack of institutional basic functions. Against this setup, climate change could add to risks. A panel fixed effects model (1980 to 2019) found that the effect of a 1◦C rise in temperature decreases income per capita growth in fragile states in SSA by 1.8 percentage points. Panel quantile regression models that account for unobserved individual heterogeneity and distributional heterogeneity, corroborate that the effects of higher temperature on income per capita growth are negative while the impact of income per capita growth on carbon emissions growth is heterogeneous, indicating that higher income per capita growth could help reduce carbon emissions growth for high-emitter countries. These findings tend to support the hypothesis behind the Environmental Kuznets Curve and the energy consumption growth literature, which postulates that as income increases, emissions increase pari passu until a threshold level of income where emissions start to decline.

Subject: Carbon tax, Climate change, Environment, Greenhouse gas emissions, Income, National accounts, Natural disasters, Taxes

Keywords: Africa, Carbon tax, Climate change, Climate change, Climate risk, Energy consumption growth literature, Fragile states, Global, Greenhouse gas emissions, Income, Natural disasters, Panel quantile regression, Panel regression estimate, Panel regressions Robustness test, Quantile panel regression, Sub-Saharan Africa

Publication Details

Pages:

31
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2022/054
Stock No:

WPIEA2022054
ISBN:

9798400204869
ISSN:

1018-5941

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