Country Reports
2022
February 24, 2022
Montenegro: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Montenegro
Description: COVID-19 hit the economy hard, but a strong recovery is underway. Public debt, already elevated before the pandemic, has increased further. The government has embarked on a reform program ‘Europe Now’, which aims to arrest outward migration through a sharp minimum wage increase, labor tax wedge reduction, and the introduction of a progressive tax code. The financial sector appears to have withstood the COVID-19 shock well.
February 23, 2022
United Kingdom: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the United Kingdom
Description: The UK’s rapid vaccination campaign enabled it to start to reopen the economy in the Spring of 2021. With highly accommodative policies, the recovery has been faster than expected. However, capacity constraints and rising price pressures have emerged while new Covid-19 variants have raised new uncertainties. The government has allowed all initial pandemic support programs to sunset but has loosened near-term fiscal policy while specifying a back-loaded medium-term consolidation plan. With continued above-target inflation readings, the BoE made a first move to raise the policy rate in December. Macroprudential policies are returning to more standard risk settings. The near-term growth outlook remains strong, but so too are price pressures, while the financial cycle remains ahead of the economic cycle. The pandemic and Brexit have magnified structural challenges. Real GDP would remain below its pre-pandemic trend by about 2–2¼ percent in the medium term. Risks are considerable in the period ahead, centering on new Covid-19 waves and spillovers from tensions in Eastern Europe.
February 23, 2022
United Kingdom: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: The U.K. financial sector is globally systemic, open, and complex. It has weathered the COVID-19 pandemic fittingly, thanks to the post-GFC reforms, a proactive macroprudential stance, and an effective multipronged response to maintain financial stability. Brexit uncertainties are being handled appropriately as the U.K. and EU authorities and the financial industry collaborate to prevent undesirable financial stability outcomes. The endpoint of the pandemic remains unclear, as does the actual impact on the financial system once support measures wane. At this juncture, therefore, financial stability conditions in the United Kingdom are being shaped by three key considerations: (i) the evolving U.K.-EU relationship on financial services; (ii) securing a sustainable and robust post-pandemic economic recovery; and (iii) successfully managing ongoing structural transitions.
February 22, 2022
Papua New Guinea: Request for a Staff-Monitored Program; and Staff Report
Description: Papua New Guinea (PNG) is a fragile state, vulnerable to recurrent shocks. A third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is straining the healthcare system. Widespread vaccine hesitancy has contributed to very low uptake of the vaccines with about only 2 percent of the population fully vaccinated. Real GDP is estimated to rebound modestly to grow by 1.7 percent in 2021 after the downturn in 2020. Elections are due to take place in June 2022, and the formal campaign period will commence by end-April.
February 18, 2022
Colombia: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Soundness Indicators Mission
Description: The Statistics Department (STA) of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided technical assistance (TA) on financial soundness indicators (FSI) to Superintendencia Financiera de Colombia (SFC) during August 30-September 3, 2021. The TA mission took place at the request of and with the support of the IMF’s Western Hemisphere Department (WHD). Due to travel restrictions because of the COVID-19 pandemic, the mission was conducted remotely via video conferences. The mission assisted the SFC officials to (i) review the characteristics of financial institutions and ensure proper classification of financial institutions as deposit-takers (DTs) or other financial corporations (OFCs) for the compilation of FSIs as set out in the IMF’s 2019 Financial Soundness Indicators Compilation Guide (2019 FSIs Guide); and (ii) develop a work program and timeline to revise the reported FSIs because of the mission’s work.
February 18, 2022
Republic of Tajikistan: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by Executive Director for the Republic of Tajikistan
Description: With a strong recovery in train, the authorities are gradually withdrawing the policy stimulus released during the pandemic. Although debt is sustainable, there is a high risk of debt distress. At the same time, financing the Roghun dam project while implementing tax reform remains a key challenge. The financial sector has stabilized, but intermediation remains low. Risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside due to uncertainty on the pandemic and regional spillovers.
February 17, 2022
United Arab Emirates: 2021 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: A swift policy response helped mitigate the economic impact of the twin COVID-19 and oil price shocks and contain the initial spread of the virus. A gradual recovery driven by the non-oil sector is underway, following a deep recession in 2020. Fiscal and external balances have improved with recent oil price increases. The UAE is among the world leaders in delivering vaccinations, with nearly 85 percent of the population fully vaccinated as of October 2021.
February 17, 2022
Republic of Congo: Request for a Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Congo
Description: A new wave of the COVID-19 pandemic is creating headwinds for the nascent economic recovery from the deep recession spurred by the pandemic’s onset and related oil price shocks. Over the medium term, reforms supporting improved governance, economic diversification, and resilience will help confront challenges from climate change, and the global transition to low-carbon economies—gradually resulting in improved incomes, job creation, inequality, and exit from fragility. In the near term, fiscal space to address these challenges is limited. Although debt sustainability was recently restored, large liquidity risks and vulnerabilities remain. Due to arrears and on-going negotiations with an external commercial creditor, debt is classified as “in distress”. The recent AIV consultation concluded on September 24, 2021.