Country Reports
2022
June 21, 2022
Barbados: Seventh Review Under the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Despite significant economic shocks associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, twin natural disasters, and the war in Ukraine, Barbados has made good progress in implementing its Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan to restore fiscal and debt sustainability, rebuild reserves, and increase growth. International reserves increased to US$1.5 billion at end-2021 supported by IFI loans. This, and a successful 2018-19 public debt restructuring, helped rebuild confidence in the country’s macroeconomic framework. Economic growth is projected at 11 percent for 2022 premised on a robust recovery of tourism, which is expected to return to pre-pandemic levels by 2024. The outlook nonetheless remains highly uncertain, and risks are elevated, including from higher global commodity prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine that are feeding into inflation. Since Barbados imports the bulk of its food and energy needs, the government has adopted temporary VAT caps on oil products to contain retail price increases (fiscal cost of 0.3 percent of GDP). While fiscal accommodation was needed to respond to the pandemic and natural disasters over the past two years, the authorities are committed to running primary surpluses from FY2022/23 onwards which need to reach 5-6 percent of GDP in three years, consistent with meeting the 60 percent of GDP debt target by FY2035/36.
June 21, 2022
Qatar: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Swift and decisive policy response to the Covid-19 pandemic has helped to mitigate the health and economic impact of the crisis. Fast vaccination rollout has also strengthened the economy’s resilience to new pandemic waves, paving the way for a speedy recovery. As the economy rebounds, a gradual exit from pandemic support measures is underway.
June 21, 2022
Georgia: Request for a Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Georgia
Description: The authorities’ policy response aided a robust recovery from the COVID-19 shock in 2021 with output growth above expectations reflecting pent-up demand and strong export performance. However, spillovers from the war in Ukraine are expected to dampen growth, raise inflation, and widen the current account deficit this year. The recovery in 2021 and scaling back of pandemic measures led to a decline in the fiscal deficit and government debt. Inflation is expected to remain higher for longer, reflecting elevated global food and commodity prices. The NBG has increased its policy rate by 3 percentage points since March 2021.
June 20, 2022
Switzerland: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Switzerland
Description: Recovery was strong in 2021, but there are headwinds from the war in Ukraine. 2021 output was 1 percent higher than in 2019, but 2 percent below pre-Covid trends; unemployment is back to pre-crisis levels. Inflation has picked up (2.5 percent in April), but below other advanced economies. Strong exports/merchanting led to a higher current account surplus. Although the energy mix (nuclear, hydro) has limited exposure to Russia, exposures of commodity traders and indirect channels could be important. Growth is likely to slow to 2¼ percent in 2022 (¾ ppt. drag from the war). Risks are to the downside (war escalation, Covid developments, real estate). Covid outlays are lower in 2022, but still large (1.2 percent of GDP). Outlays related to Ukraine are likely to be accommodated as extraordinary. The Swiss National Bank is closely monitoring inflation, seeing it returning to the 0–2 percent range this year. The authorities reactivated the sectoral CCyB for residential real estate. They are pursuing pension and labor reforms, climate initiatives, energy security, and renewed EU engagement.
June 20, 2022
Principality of Andorra: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: The Andorran economy is recovering strongly from the pandemic, supported by a rebound in tourism, retail trade, construction, and professional services. Real GDP is expected to reach pre-crisis levels in the second half of 2022. While the unemployment rate is amongst the lowest in Europe and continues to decline, pockets of vulnerability remain. Notwithstanding significant policy buffers, there are still substantial downside risks, notably the impact in Europe of the war in Ukraine, higher than expected inflation, and a resurgence of infection rates.
June 17, 2022
South Africa: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Financial Safety Net and Crisis Management
Description: This Technical Note sets out the findings and recommendations of the Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) for South Africa on financial safety net and crisis-management arrangements. It primarily focuses on the arrangements for early intervention, recovery, resolution, and financial safety nets for banks in South Africa. To a lesser extent, the note also addresses issues relating to recovery and resolution applicable to insurers and Financial Market Infrastructure (FMI).
June 17, 2022
South Africa: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Systemic Liquidity Management
Description: The South African financial markets are the most developed and liquid in Africa and well developed by global standards, as well, reflecting credible and independent policy making, a diverse economy and strong financial institutions. Foreign exchange market turnover is consistently among the top 20 in the world according to the Bank for International Settlement (BIS) triennial survey. The government bond and interest rate swap yield curves go out to 20 years. The size of the domestic bond market is around 85 percent of GDP, and stock market capitalization is about 300 percent of the GDP. Supporting financial market infrastructure is broadly adequate for the size and turnover of the markets. The central bank (SARB) operates independently and at a high capacity, providing a sound footing for market functioning.