Country Reports
2022
June 27, 2022
Iceland: 2022 Article IV Consultation - Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This 2022 Article IV Consultation discusses that Iceland has weathered recent shocks to the economy relatively well. Well-designed policy measures and a solid health system eased the impact of the pandemic, allowing real gross domestic product and employment to recover strongly. Robust domestic demand and favorable terms of trade boosted output growth to 4.3 percent in 2021, despite slower recovery in tourism. Growth is expected to remain moderate in 2022 and the medium term. Careful policy coordination is required to entrench the recovery, stem risks and rebuild buffers to pre-pandemic levels. Policies should mitigate the flaring-up in inflation, external imbalances, and house prices. Structural reforms should facilitate economic diversification and make the economy more resilient to shocks. Diversification efforts should focus on easing regulatory burdens on start-ups and spurring innovation by leveraging Iceland’s human capital and advanced digital infrastructure. The new collective wage agreement can also foster diversification and resilience through better alignment of wage and productivity growth.
June 27, 2022
Iceland: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper on Iceland analyzes housing market risks and housing affordability. House prices in Iceland have increased markedly since the onset of the coronavirus disease-pandemic, with signs that the valuations have exceeded macro fundamentals and long-term trends. Overvaluation has important implications for macroeconomic and financial stability, and housing affordability. House price cycles seem to be closely linked with the business cycle, indicating an amplification risk in the event of price correction. Thus, well calibrated and coordinated policies are crucial to navigate the house price cycle, minimize adverse feedbacks, and reduce affordability risk. IMF’s quantitative analysis examines the interplay between house prices and related factors. The ongoing monetary policy tightening cycle should help address Iceland’s house price pressures. Further macroprudential tightening through binding and effective borrower-based measures could help contain systemic risks and create further buffers in the financial sector. In the medium term, focusing on structural measures that reduce construction costs and increase supply by eliminating red-tape and reducing the period for obtaining building permits is likely to have the highest pay-off.
June 27, 2022
Senegal: Fifth Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument, Second Reviews Under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Standby Credit Facility, and Requests for Augmentation of Access, Waiver of the Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Modification of a Performance Criterion and Quantitative Targets-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Senegal
Description: This paper presents Senegal’s Fifth Review under the Policy Coordination Instrument, Second Reviews under the Stand-By Arrangement and the Arrangement under the Standby Credit Facility, and Requests for Augmentation of Access, Waiver of the Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Modification of a Performance Criterion and Quantitative Targets. The war in Ukraine and trade sanctions against Mali are having significant spillovers on Senegal. The authorities are taking temporary and targeted measures to support the most vulnerable and to stabilize food prices, while preserving debt sustainability. Rebuilding buffers is critical through an accelerated implementation of the domestic revenue mobilization strategy, prudent debt management, and enhanced spending efficiency, notably by gradually phasing out subsidies and reducing recourse to single source procurement. Program performance was broadly satisfactory. All but one end-December 2021 performance criteria and one of three indicative targets were met. Four out of eight structural benchmarks were implemented on time. Progress is ongoing to finalize the remaining ones.
June 24, 2022
Bulgaria: 2022 Article IV Consultation - Press Release; and Staff Report for Bulgaria
Description: The economy showed resilience through the pandemic, but the war in Ukraine has clouded the outlook, heightened uncertainty, and increased downside risks. With policy support, growth rebounded in 2021 despite the lingering COVID-19 crisis and protracted political uncertainty that hampered investment. Inflation accelerated significantly, pushed by global factors and strong domestic consumption. GDP growth is projected to slow below 3 percent and average inflation to exceed 12 percent in 2022. In this context, policies must navigate difficult trade-offs as they need to support activity, meet needs from the war, and contain inflation, while raising living standards, reducing inequalities, and supporting the green transition.
June 24, 2022
Argentina: First Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Argentina
Description: First Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review
June 22, 2022
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Uzbekistan
Description: Uzbekistan embarked on an ambitious reform path in 2017, starting to liberalize its economy after years of state control. Incomes are still relatively low compared to other emerging economies and the role of the state is still large. Uzbekistan weathered the pandemic relatively well. Strong fundamentals, ample policy buffers, and high gold prices allowed the authorities to take strong actions to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and growth accelerated to 7.4 percent in 2021.
June 21, 2022
Paraguay: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: After two consecutive years of GDP decline driven by external shocks, Paraguay’s economy rebounded in 2021. In 2019, drought and flooding reduced economic growth to -0.4 percent. In 2020, the impact of the pandemic on the secondary and tertiary sectors was partly compensated by a rebound of agriculture and an extensive emergency package, and GDP fell by only 0.8 percent. Growth rebounded to 4.2 percent in 2021, but heatwaves and a severe drought decelerated the recovery and have limited 2022 growth prospects, though a recovery is projected for 2023 and the medium-term. While the loss of agricultural export revenue is affecting Paraguay’s balance of payments in 2022, the external position in 2021 was stronger than the level implied by fundamentals and desirable policies.
June 21, 2022
Greece: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece
Description: Greece has weathered the pandemic well, with a considerably stronger-than-expected recovery. Reforms progressed in several areas, including digitalization, privatization, improving the fiscal policy mix, and bank balance sheet repair. Greece finalized its early repayment to the IMF on April 4 and is expected to graduate from the quarterly European Institutions’ Enhanced Surveillance framework on schedule by August 2022. Despite the adverse impact of the war in Ukraine, growth is projected to remain robust at 3.5 percent this year. High energy prices are expected to push up average inflation to 6.1 percent. Public debt is on a downward trajectory and rollover risks appear manageable. The external position last year was moderately weaker than that consistent with fundamentals and desirable policies.