Country Reports
2022
September 1, 2022
Pakistan: Seventh, and Eighth Reviews of the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and for Extension, Augmentation, and Rephasing of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Pakistan
Description: Economic activity remained robust in FY22, fueled by loose fiscal policy and a delayed monetary response to inflationary pressures. These combined with the international food and fuel price shocks led to a marked deterioration of the external position with an unsustainable current account deficit, a significant decline in reserves, and a marked depreciation of the rupee. At the same time, inflation has increased considerably, putting pressure particularly on the more vulnerable.
September 1, 2022
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Sector Stability Review
Description: In response to a request from the Central Bank of the Congo (BCC), the Monetary and Capital Markets Department of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) conducted a Financial Sector Stability Review (FSSR) mission virtually, during January 5–28, 2022. The FSSR performed a diagnostic of the financial system, reviewed progress in implementing previous IMF technical assistance (TA) recommendations, and developed a draft Technical Assistance Roadmap to help strengthen the BCC’s capacity in the areas covered by the FSSR. The FSSR also for the first-time covered gender inclusion in financial supervision. It identified five macrofinancial vulnerabilities pertaining to: (i) the quality of the banking system’s capital base; (ii) the difficulty in evaluating nonperforming loans following the COVID 19 financial support measures; (iii) risks related to financial dollarization; (iv) the impact on correspondent banking relationships of “de-risking”; and (v) intragroup exposures, as bank subsidiaries in the DRC place surplus funds with parent companies abroad. The BCC’s adoption of COVID-19 exit measures in December 2021, including specific reporting requirements, should provide momentum for additional TA in the near term to help the BCC analyze banks’ asset quality going forward.
August 29, 2022
Chile: Request for an Arrangement Under the Flexible Credit Line and Cancellation of the Arrangement Under the Short-term Liquidity Line-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement and Statement by the Executive Director for Chile
Description: After an impressive recovery from the fallout of the Covid-19 pandemic, the Chilean economy is confronting an acute deterioration of the external environment. Downside risks have materialized, including a tightening of global financial conditions, a slowdown in global growth, and a substantial drop in Chile’s terms of trade. Domestic economic policies are appropriately being recalibrated to mitigate risks and preserve macroeconomic stability, while supporting vulnerable groups. The authorities will continue leveraging on Chile’s very strong fundamentals and policy frameworks to implement an ambitious reform agenda in a challenging external environment.
August 26, 2022
Tonga: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tonga
Description: Tonga’s nascent economic recovery following Tropical Cyclone Harold and border closures in early 2020 has been severely disrupted by a double blow from the Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai volcanic eruption and the first local outbreak of COVID-19 at the start of 2022. The authorities are augmenting reconstruction and restoration efforts, with support from the international community. Real GDP is projected to contract by 1.9 percent in FY2022 (July 2021–June 2022), before rebounding by 3.2 percent in FY2023 with a gradual reopening of international borders.
August 25, 2022
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Stress Tests, Credit Concentration, and Interest Rate Risks
Description: This technical note presents the stress tests on credit, interest rate, and concentration risk conducted by the WAEMU FSAP.1 Stress tests on contagion and liquidity risks are addressed separately.2 Stress tests are an important tool for detecting financial sector vulnerabilities, setting up targeted banking sector monitoring, imposing preventive measures, and informing public decision-makers of macrofinancial risks and costs.
August 25, 2022
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Financial Safety Net and Crisis Preparedness
Description: The institutional and legal frameworks for financial stability in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) have seen significant progress since the previous Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) in 2008. 1 The institutional reform of the WAEMU and the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO) in 2010 clarified the respective mandates and responsibilities of the latter and the WAEMU Banking Commission (CBU), and it strengthened the CBU’s legal autonomy and enforcement powers. A new banking law adopted in 2010 established an overall framework for the operation and supervision of banking activities, which has been rendered more proactive and risk based with the gradual implementation of the Basel II/III mechanism initiated in 2016. A bank resolution regime was introduced in 2015 and the mandate of the deposit guarantee fund, created in 2014, was expanded to bank resolution funding in 2018. A macroprudential policy framework, including for monitoring systemic financial sector risks, was developed around the BCEAO and the Financial Stability Committee (CSF-UMOA) in 2010. This series of reforms has greatly enhanced the robustness of the financial safety net via its four components: the early intervention mechanism, the bank resolution regime, the deposit insurance system, and the emergency liquidity assistance (ELA) mechanism.
August 25, 2022
West African Economic and Monetary Union: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Analysis of Systemic Liquidity
Description: The limited development of markets in the region represents a key risk factor for financial stability. 1 Since the previous Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) in 2008, the bank deposit base has increased from 18 percent to 30 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) and the buoyancy of the government securities market has benefited from the interruption of public deficit financing by the Central Bank of West African States (BCEAO). Nevertheless, a significant portion of bank funding cannot be considered stable, due to the concentration of deposits held by large corporations. Apart from reserves held with the BCEAO, banks have little in the way of liquid assets, although the secondary market for government securities is beginning to grow for some issuers. Insufficient secondary market liquidity and the prevalence of unsecured intragroup transactions (60 percent of the total) in the interbank market exacerbate the risk and extent of potential losses for banks in the event of liquidity distress.
August 23, 2022
Republic of Latvia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: The economy fared relatively well during the pandemic, but the war in Ukraine is another major shock. The key vulnerabilities are Latvia’s significant reliance on imported gas from Russia until recently, the impact of high international energy prices on inflation and economic activity, and refugee inflows. Thus far, almost 33,000 refugees have entered Latvia. Parliamentary elections later this year may put pressure on the government budget.
August 22, 2022
Panama: Second Review Under the Arrangement Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Panama
Description: Despite continuing challenges from the COVID-19 pandemic and new risks emanating from global uncertainties, a combination of sound policy measures and a resolute vaccination program have supported a gradual return to normality and underpin a rebound in economic activities. External imbalances remain contained, and fiscal consolidation is underway as the authorities are adhering to the fiscal rule, which ensures a declining path for the public debt to GDP ratio. While the outlook is favorable, it remains subject to elevated risks, including global uncertainties arising from the war in Ukraine, faster-than-expected US monetary tightening, tighter global financial conditions, higher crude oil prices, and new variants of the COVID-19 virus that may derail the recovery. Domestic risks include significant delays in implementing the FATF action plan to exit the grey list.