Country Reports
2022
December 14, 2022
Republic of Armenia: Request for a Stand-By Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Alternate Executive Director
Description: The economy has maintained a strong momentum, driven by robust consumption and a surge in inflows of income, capital, business, and labor. Inflation has increased markedly due to the sharp rise in food and energy prices and the booming economy, but proactive monetary policy tightening and GDP growth deceleration are projected to bring inflation down in 2023. While robust growth should continue over the medium-term, uncertainty is elevated and downside risks are significant due to the ongoing war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia, global financial tightening, slowdown in major trading partners, and high food and energy prices. Structural challenges also remain, including high unemployment, weak business environment, and low productivity growth.
December 9, 2022
Albania: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Albania
Description: Past efforts to build policy buffers and a broadly appropriate macroeconomic policy mix during 2020–21 have helped Albania withstand the impact of consecutive shocks since 2019. Growth is expected to remain solid in 2022 before decelerating in 2023, and inflation is projected to return to the central bank’s target only in 2024. There is considerable uncertainty. Risks to growth are tilted to the downside and risks to inflation are to the upside.
December 8, 2022
Mexico: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Climate Risk Analysis
Description: Mexico is exposed to both transition and physical risks from climate change. Mexico’s total energy supply is dominated by fossil fuels and non-renewable energy sources. The country is the second largest emitter of greenhouse gases (GHG) in Latin America. Emissions are highly concentrated in a few economic sectors that play an important role in the Mexican economy. The Mexican financial sector has sizable exposures to these emission intensive sectors. As such, the transition to a low carbon economy raises challenges for the economy and financial sector that need to be considered. Meanwhile, Mexico is exposed to a range of physical risks, including acute risks associated with floods and tropical cyclones, by virtue of the exposure to both the North Atlantic and Eastern Pacific hurricane basins, droughts, and heatwaves, and chronic risks.
December 8, 2022
Mexico: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Systemic Risk Analysis and Stress Testing
Description: Mexico has a resilient financial system but a low level of financial inclusion. The financial system is smaller than in peer countries and is dominated by commercial banks that have had large capital and liquidity buffers for years. Despite these buffers and the high profitability in the banking sector, credit growth has been low due to both supply and demand factors, with banks targeting mainly the prime segments of the economy. The COVID-19 pandemic has had a limited impact on the financial system, reflecting a mix of resumption in mobility and support from global and domestic policies.
December 8, 2022
Canada: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Canada has come through the pandemic relatively well and, as a commodity exporter, has been hit less hard than many other countries have been by Russia’s war on Ukraine. Nonetheless, inflation is well above target, housing affordability is a major concern following a long boom that may now have peaked, and the pandemic remains a source of risk.
December 6, 2022
Eswatini: Technical Assistance Report on Government Finance Statistics Mission (July 6-12, 2022)
Description: This technical assistance (TA) mission on Government Finance Statistics (GFS) was conducted during July 6-12, 2022. The main purpose of the mission was to review the progress made by the authorities in implementing previous TA recommendations and provide further support to strengthen the compilation and dissemination of GFS in line with international standards set out in the Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014).
December 2, 2022
Paraguay: Request for a Two-Year Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Paraguay
Description: Paraguay continues to recover from the COVID-19 pandemic amidst simultaneous shocks that would lead to flat GDP growth and inflation above the IT range this year. Those conditions are reflected in rising social demands within a politicized environment before the 2023 general elections. The outlook remains favorable, and the authorities are pursuing policies to follow a stronger, more resilient, and inclusive development path. On the back of very positive experiences with Fund-supported programs, the authorities are requesting approval of a two-year program supported by the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) to underpin the implementation of needed structural reforms.
December 2, 2022
Mozambique: First Review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, and Request for Modification of the Monetary Policy Consultation Clause, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Mozambique
Description: The economic recovery is strengthening, as a successful vaccination campaign and recovery from COVID-related restrictions dominate headwinds from the worsening international economic environment. Growth is projected at 3.8 percent this year, rising to 5 percent in 2023 as the first liquefied natural gas (LNG) project enters production. Food and fuel prices have pushed inflation to double digits. Monetary policy has been proactive, including a further 200bps increase in the policy rate in September 2022. Credit conditions remain tight, while financial sector buffers built before the pandemic have underpinned banking sector resilience. Fiscal outcomes have been in line with expectations. The current account deficit is lower than forecast (though it still widens due to LNG infrastructure imports), as exports have been stronger than anticipated. International reserves have declined faster than anticipated due to higher imported fuel prices.