Country Reports
2022
December 21, 2022
Ukraine: Program Monitoring with Board Involvement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ukraine
Description: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine continues to have a devastating social and economic impact on the country. Civilian casualties are mounting, over a third of the population has been displaced, and access to basic needs such as electricity, water, and heating are at risk while winter is coming. Macroeconomic management has been exceedingly difficult. The fiscal deficit has ballooned to accommodate a large expansion of defense spending, financed by a combination of external support and monetization, with multiple supplementary budgets since the start of the war. The inflation targeting regime was replaced by a hard peg to the US dollar, supported by FX controls and a sizeable increase in policy interest rates. The exchange rate has come under episodic pressure (and was devalued by 25 percent in July), despite sizable external financing. Notwithstanding all these strains, the authorities have largely managed to maintain macroeconomic and financial stability, and they are committed to take necessary measures to preserve stability.
December 20, 2022
Republic of Serbia: Third Review Under the Policy Coordination Instrument, Request for a Stand-By Arrangement, and Cancellation of the Policy Coordination Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Serbia
Description: In the wake of the Covid pandemic, Serbia embarked on a well-paced consolidation path to rebuild buffers, supported by a program under the Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI). Given higher energy prices and domestic electricity production problems, high global inflation, weaker trading partner growth, and spillovers from Russia’s war in Ukraine, the authorities have requested financial support under a two-year Stand-by Arrangement (SBA) of SDR 1,898.92 million (290 percent of quota, about EUR 2.4 billion). The SBA supports economic and financial policies to address external and fiscal financing needs, maintain macroeconomic and financial stability, and continue to strengthen the economy’s performance and resilience through structural reforms. The PCI was cancelled upon approval of the SBA.
December 20, 2022
Benin: First Reviews under the Extended Fund Facility and the Extended Credit Facility Arrangements-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Benin
Description: On July 8, 2022, the IMF Executive Board approved 42-month Extended Fund Facility (EFF) and Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangements under High Combined Credit Exposure (HCCE) (391 percent of quota, about US$650 million) to help Benin meet pressing financing needs and support the country’s National Development Plan centered on achieving SDGs. The program is off to a strong start notwithstanding elevated uncertainty. While there is broad consensus that sound macroeconomic management in recent years is generating tangible dividends for the economy as a whole, the public is frustrated over the fact that this is taking time to translate into improved socioeconomic conditions for all. This sentiment has been compounded by temporary import price pressures since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Legislative elections will be held in early January 2023, with related risks to the program expected to be limited.
December 20, 2022
Kenya: Fourth Reviews Under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility and under the Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, and Requests for Augmentation of Access under the Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, and Modifications of Quantitative Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kenya
Description: Kenya is navigating a turbulent global backdrop marked by volatile commodity prices, slowing growth in key trading partners, and constrained frontier market access to international capital markets. At home, a smooth transition following the August elections demonstrated Kenya’s increasing institutional strengths, while the multi-season drought has worsened food insecurity for vulnerable populations in arid and semi-arid regions and kept food prices elevated. Strong tax overperformance in FY2021/22 helped cushion some of these shocks, and the administration of President Ruto eliminated petrol subsidies in their first week in office. Inflation has breached the central bank (CBK) target band, and monetary policy has been tightened by 175 basis points this year. Foreign reserves are adequate, but lower than previously projected given shortfalls in FY2021/22 external public commercial and project financing, spending cuts in FY2022/23 also extending to externally-financed projects, and the prospects for continued challenging market conditions for frontier economies into 2023.
December 19, 2022
Rwanda: Request for a new 36-Month Policy Coordination Instrument and Request for an Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Rwanda
Description: Supported by a large policy package, Rwanda’s economy rebounded in 2021 after contracting in the preceding year due to the COVID-19 shock. However, the country now faces multi-faceted challenges—pandemic scars, headwinds from the war in Ukraine, and climate-related shocks, meanwhile inflationary pressures have increased markedly. Downside risks are significant from the war spillovers, through further pressures on energy, food, and fertilizer prices, global financial tightening, and slowdown in major trading partners, in addition to climate-related shocks. Against this backdrop, the authorities have requested a new Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) and an arrangement under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) to support their efforts in maintaining macroeconomic stability, advancing their reform agenda, including on climate to enhance Rwanda’s resilience to climate-related shocks, and insuring against downside risks. They will cancel the current PCI (expiring in June 2023) upon approval of the new PCI.
December 19, 2022
Morocco: Central Bank Transparency Code Review
Description: The Bank Al-Maghrib (BAM) has implemented expanded and comprehensive transparency practices in a number of areas, notably related to the primary mandate of price stability and the shared mandate of financial stability. This reflects the BAM’s public commitment to transparency anchored in the new 2019 BAM Law and articulated as a strategic orientation under the quinquennial plan for 2019-2023. This level of transparency enabled the BAM to gain the noteworthy trust of the stakeholders met by the mission and to safeguard its autonomy.
December 19, 2022
Zimbabwe: Technical Assistance Report—Financial Sector Stability Review Consolidated Supervision
Description: At the request of the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ), the Monetary and Capital Markets (MCM) Department conducted a virtual mission from May 3 to June 10, 2022 to assist the RBZ on strengthening consolidated supervision framework. The main focus was to support the RBZ in updating the RBZ consolidated supervision framework, enhancing prudential reporting on a consolidated basis, strengthening the assessment of banking group’s risks, and intensifying cross-border and interagency cooperation.
December 18, 2022
Cambodia: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Cambodia
Description: After suffering a recession during the pandemic, the Cambodian economy was on a steady recovery path, but is facing new pressures in 2022 that have buffeted external demand and increased inflation rates. The authorities have largely continued with crisis policy responses and have pressed on with policy reforms. The recovery is projected to continue, notwithstanding external stresses. Risks of public debt distress remain low. However, the level of private debt raises concerns about potential debt overhang.
December 16, 2022
Seychelles: Third Review Under the Extended Fund Facility Arrangement and Request for Modification of Indicative Targets-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Tourism is driving a strong economic recovery in Seychelles. Real GDP growth is expected to accelerate to 10.6 percent in 2022, up from 7.9 percent in 2021. However, the recovery is uneven across sectors of the economy. The authorities have already begun to rebuild policy buffers and have taken measures to protect the poorest as the country transitions from the COVID-19 outbreak. The primary fiscal deficit in 2022 is expected to narrow to 1.1 percent of GDP, reflecting an extraordinary consolidation of 13.6 percentage points over the last two years. Risks to debt sustainability have been significantly reduced with the public debt-to-GDP ratio projected at around 68 percent at end-2022, thereby registering a 21-percentage-point reduction in two years.