Country Reports
2023
January 30, 2023
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Technical Assistance Report on Public Investment Management Assessment - PIMA and Climate PIMA
Description: This technical report discusses the results of the Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA) of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) undertaken in March 2022. Despite some recovery in the 2000s, the levels of public investment in the DRC remain well below the average for comparator countries, and access and quality of infrastructure are very poor, with major risks of deterioration. While the government aims to meet part of these needs by creating fiscal space, successful infrastructure development will hinge on improvements in investment efficiency, which can be achieved by strengthening public investment management practices. Public investment management in the DRC suffers from weaknesses across the whole project cycle, both on paper (legal and regulatory framework) and in practice. Efficient project management is hampered by administrative and legal fragmentation, which leads to dilution of capacity, and by budget credibility issues. This report proposes seven high-priority recommendations that could greatly improve public investment management in the short to medium term. The report also includes the results of the climate module of the PIMA evaluation, which reflect that the DRC’s commitments in the fight against climate change are beginning to feed into public investment management practices.
January 27, 2023
Nicaragua: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Nicaragua
Description: Substantial pre-crisis buffers (primarily government deposits), prudent policies, and official external financial assistance helped Nicaragua recover well from a protracted downturn during 2018-2020 caused by the socio-political crisis of 2018, two major hurricanes in 2020, and the pandemic. Real gross domestic product (GDP) grew by 10.3 percent in 2021 and is projected to grow by 4 percent in 2022, despite hurricane Julia that affected the country in October. Inflation on an annual basis reached 11.4 percent in November 2022, mostly due to increases in import prices. The authorities introduced fiscal measures to mitigate the impact of the increases in oil and wheat prices, and also increased the reference interest rate. Bank deposits are growing strongly and reached the pre-crisis level (in Córdobas). Gross international reserves have doubled since end-2018 (to over US$4 billion; about 6 months of imports, excluding maquila).
January 27, 2023
Republic of Kosovo: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Kosovo
Description: The increase in energy and food prices after Russia’s war in Ukraine is weighing on private demand, activity, and inflation. Real GDP growth has decelerated to 2–3 percent in 2022, after recovering by 10.7 percent in 2021, and inflation increased to more than 11 percent. Growth is projected to moderately pick up to 3.5 percent in 2023, and inflation to decline to 5 percent, though these forecasts crucially depend on the assumption that international commodity prices will ease. Uncertainty remains high, with risks to the downside for growth and to the upside for inflation.
January 26, 2023
Jordan: Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan
Description: Growth, at 2.7 percent, in 2022–23 is somewhat stronger than expected, on account of a broad-based post-COVID recovery and positive spillovers from the region. However, the medium-term outlook is weighed down by elevated commodity prices, tightening financial conditions, and a slowing global economy. Inflation, projected at 4.4 percent for 2022, has increased but remains moderate and should ease in the period ahead. The 2022 current account deficit has widened somewhat, due to a larger import bill; but international reserves have been buoyed by the rebound in travel receipts and remittances. Financial challenges in the electricity sector are exacerbating fiscal pressures, particularly as food subsidies have increased considerably on the back of high international prices. With elevated unemployment and commodity prices, social conditions remain challenging.
January 25, 2023
Haiti: First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Haiti is faced with many difficulties, which have been worsened by higher food and fuel prices stemming from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Because of this global shock and a deterioration of the domestic security situation, the economy has become even more fragile, and the macroeconomic situation and outlook are more challenging than in June 2022, when the Staff Monitored Program was approved by IMF Management. In line with global trends, growth has been weaker than expected and inflation higher. Despite the more difficult macroeconomic situation and downside risks, recent data and progress on structural reforms suggest that the authorities are making meaningful efforts to ease the country’s multiple challenges.
January 24, 2023
Morocco: 2022 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: Despite the authorities’ very strong policy response, another drought and the economic spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have taken a toll on Morocco’s economy and ignited inflationary pressures. Assuming a return to normal agricultural seasons, stabilization of external economic conditions, and continued progress on the authorities’ rich structural reform agenda, economic activity should rebound in 2023 and stabilize around 3½ percent over the medium term. Inflation is projected to have peaked in 2022 and to start falling in 2023 as the commodity price shock dissipates and the central bank reduces monetary policy accommodation. The negative terms-of-trade shock widened the trade deficit in 2022, but Morocco’s external position is projected to improve from 2023 onwards, also thanks to strong remittances and tourism inflows.
January 24, 2023
Cabo Verde: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: The IMF Board approved a 36-month ECF arrangement for Cabo Verde in June 2022. The program aims to: strengthen public finances and put debt on a downward path; reduce fiscal risks from public enterprises and improve their financial management; modernize the monetary policy framework and improve resilience of the financial system; and raise the growth potential. Cabo Verde was hit hard by the COVID-19 pandemic. The recovery is now underway, and the economy has recorded five consecutive quarters of growth, supported by a rebound in tourism. The fiscal position has improved, the debt-to- GDP ratio is on a downward path, reserves are within the target range, and the financial sector remains resilient. However, spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have led to double-digit increases in energy and food prices.
January 24, 2023
Guinea: 2022 Article IV Consultation and Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea
Description: Following a coup d’état in September 2021 and a year of socio-political tension, the situation has stabilized after the authorities agreed with ECOWAS on a revised, shorter (24-month) transition calendar. While the non-mining sector remains weakened by the subsequent shocks—the pandemic, political uncertainty, the global food and fuel price shock and ensuing food insecurity—overall growth remains buoyant, driven by strong mining production. Inflation hovered around 12 percent for most of 2021 and 2022, despite significant international prices pressures. Food insecurity became increasingly acute during 2022 stemming from the price shock and could be exacerbated next year.