Country Reports
2023
May 24, 2023
Guatemala: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guatemala
Description: Guatemala has weathered many crises well. Its ’s economy has proved resilient, building on a solid track-record of prudent policies—low fiscal deficits and debt-to-GDP ratio, and high international reserves—and strong remittance inflows. After a strong rebound in 2021, Guatemala’s economy has been slowing down—with GDP growth halving to a solid 4.1 percent in 2022. Inflation increased in 2022 but peaked in February 2023 (9.9 percent, year-on-year) to drop to 8.71 percent in March 2023. At the same time, public investment tends to be under-executed, poverty remains high, and tax revenue is weak, while substantial institutional, investment, and social gaps and governance weaknesses hinder progress. Addressing these requires higher broad-based and inclusive growth and further progress in the reform agenda. The authorities’ goal to attain investment grade and attract foreign investment could unlock opportunities. General elections are due June 25, 2023 (the second round on August 20, if needed).
May 23, 2023
Republic of Lithuania: Technical Assistance Report-Improvement of High Wealth Individuals Control Function– Project Report
Description: The purpose of this report is to provide an assessment of the development of the STI HWI Compliance Strategy and progress in executing the implementation plan tasks, as well as FAD recommendations for the future success of the HWI compliance program. The report will first focus in section II on key components of fully developed HWI compliance strategies currently in place in a number of tax administrations. The report includes in section III FAD’s findings, and early recommendations to the STI for consideration in the implementation of their strategy. It identifies the achievements and progress made by the STI in implementing their HWI Compliance Strategy including the tasks in their implementation plan. Section IV sets out additional FAD recommendations to assist the STI in reaching a fully developed level in the management of their HWI segment.
May 23, 2023
Uruguay: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Uruguay
Description: Uruguay showed strong resilience during the Covid-19 pandemic, owing to its high institutional quality, strong governance, and the authorities’ policy responses. Scarring effects in real activity and the labor market were mitigated somewhat by the authorities’ well-targeted responses. The authorities’ strong track record of implementing sound macroeconomic policies in a challenging environment has improved the country’s resilience to shocks. Since September 2022, the country is undergoing the most severe drought in forty years.
May 22, 2023
Lao People's Democratic Republic: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lao PDR
Description: Marked exchange rate depreciation following the global terms of trade shocks at the start of 2022 year brought high inflation and deteriorating living standards and caused substantial increases in the domestic currency values of public debt and bank liabilities. Nonetheless, growth continued, and the prospect is for a return to steady growth in 2023. But public debt is assessed to be unsustainable, and servicing government debt presents substantial risks to this outlook.
May 19, 2023
Peru: Review Under the Flexible Credit Line Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Peru
Description: Peru’s long track record of very strong economic fundamentals and institutional policy frameworks allowed the country to deploy a robust policy response to mitigate the impact of the pandemic and a subsequent successful withdrawal, while preserving macroeconomic stability and sustaining ample access to international capital markets. GDP growth slowed in 2022, falling below potential as the policy stimulus was withdrawn, the external backdrop turned more challenging, and political instability weighed on private investment. Growth is expected to remain subdued in 2023 and to converge gradually to potential over the medium term. Inflation rose in line with international trends but is expected to fall towards the upper end of the target range by year-end. The macroeconomic policy mix is broadly appropriate.
May 19, 2023
Kingdom of the Netherlands-Aruba: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Stability Diagnostic and Scoping Mission
Description: Aruba has a sizeable financial sector, dominated by commercial banks that are generally well capitalized and hold ample liquidity buffers. Within the context of a conservative business model, capital adequacy and liquid assets to total assets ratios have been around double the regulatory minima. Banks are profitable and before the pandemic the NPL ratio was at a moderate level. Due to the Covid-19 pandemic, the NPL risks increased, but have remained within acceptable ranges.
May 18, 2023
Albania: Technical Assistance Report—Investment Funds and Interconnectedness Risks
Description: This report relies on the information submitted by the AFSA and discussions with AFSA and BoA. Detailed data on the fund sector had been shared by AFSA and discussions with Authorities covered issues around (i) data reporting, (ii) risk analysis, (iii) regulatory framework and (iv) interlinkages. The fund sector has been expanding and remains highly concentrated. Since end-2019 the net asset value of Albanian funds has increased by 15 percent and accounts for around four percent of financial sector assets. The sector remains highly concentrated: (i) on the asset side, as domestic sovereign bonds account for most of exposures; and (ii) on the entity side, as the top fund represents 62 percent of the asset of the sector and the top 3 funds (all from the same manager) around 95 percent.
May 17, 2023
Belgium: Technical Assistance Report-Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program–The Value Added Tax
Description: This report presents the results of applying the RA-GAP VAT gap estimation methodology to Belgium for the period 2011-2021. The Revenue Administration Gap Analysis Program (RAGAP) methodology employs a top-down approach for estimating the potential Value-Added Tax (VAT) base, using statistical data on value-added generated in each sector. There are two main components to this methodology for estimating the VAT gap: 1) estimate the potential VAT collections for a given period; and 2) determine the accrued VAT collections for that period. The difference between the two values is the VAT gap.
May 17, 2023
Ghana: Request for an Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ghana
Description: This paper highlights Ghana’s Request for an Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF). The authorities’ economic program, supported by the ECF-arrangement, builds on the government’s post-coronavirus disease 2019 Program for Economic Growth, which aims to restore macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability and includes wide-ranging reforms to build resilience and lay the foundation for stronger and more inclusive growth. Securing timely debt restructuring agreements with external creditors will be essential for the successful implementation of the new ECF arrangement. Key policies under the authorities’ program include large and frontloaded fiscal consolidation to bring public finances back on a sustainable path, complemented by efforts to protect the vulnerable. The adjustment effort will be supported by ambitious structural reforms in the areas of tax policy, revenue administration, and public financial management, as well as steps to address weaknesses in the energy and cocoa sectors. An ambitious structural reform agenda is being put in place to reinvigorate private sector-led growth by improving the business environment, governance, and productivity.