Country Reports
2023
July 5, 2023
Democratic Republic of the Congo: Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Modification of Quantitative Performance Criterion, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Democratic Republic of the Congo
Description: Growth has remained strong and resilient, fueled by expanding mining activity. However, the escalation of the armed conflict in Eastern DRC is having major negative humanitarian effects and weighed on public finances; upcoming elections, scheduled at the end of 2023, are also adding to uncertainty. Since the last review, the government’s revenue shortfalls and rapid spending contributed to a deterioration of the external balance, excess domestic currency liquidity, exchange rate depreciation, and persistent inflation.
July 5, 2023
Central African Economic and Monetary Community: Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director
Description: CEMAC benefited from favorable hydrocarbon prices in 2022. Economic recovery firmed up and the external position strengthened, with external reserves building up faster in recent months, although still below adequate levels. Monetary policy was tightened to stem rising inflation, and fiscal positions improved owing to higher oil revenues. However, underlying non-oil fiscal positions deteriorated, highlighting the necessity of accelerating reforms and tackling recent fiscal slippages, to help save part of the oil windfalls and bring polices back in line with Fund-supported program objectives and staff advice. This will help cope more effectively with downside risks, including hydrocarbon prices volatility, food insecurity, financial stability risks, higher inflation, funding squeeze, and debt vulnerabilities.
July 5, 2023
Republic of Serbia: 2023 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Stand-By Arrangement, and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Serbia
Description: Serbia has made impressive economic gains over much of the past decade: living standards improved, inflation fell, public finances were strengthened, and reserves increased, helped by ample foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows. But spillovers from the war in Ukraine—especially the sharp increase in international energy prices—and deep-rooted problems in Serbia’s energy sector that came to a head last year, led to large external and fiscal financing needs, prompting the authorities to request a Fund-supported Stand-By Arrangement (SBA). Fiscal and external outturns for 2022 were both better than expected, and unemployment remains low. Record FDI inflows continue to drive reserves higher. But inflation remains a pressing challenge. Led by high food and energy prices, headline inflation is now well above the National Bank of Serbia’s (NBS’s) target band and core inflation has also increased sharply. Fiscal policy is expected to remain relatively tight in 2023, despite additional mid-year spending measures. Deep structural problems persist in the energy sector and are a key focus of the SBA. Long-standing geopolitical challenges remain.
July 5, 2023
Barbados: First Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, Requests for Modification of Performance Criteria and Reform Measures, and Rephasing of Access Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Barbados
Description: After successfully weathering a series of shocks in recent years, the Barbadian economy is recovering strongly driven by a rebound in tourism and related activities. Public debt was brought back onto a downward trajectory and international reserves have risen to over 7 months of imports. The authorities are making good progress in implementing their updated Economic Recovery and Transformation (BERT) plan and their ambitious climate policy agenda. Following the completion of the 2018-22 Extended Fund Facility (EFF), a successor 36-month EFF arrangement along with a Resilience and Sustainability Facility (RSF) were approved in December 2022. The authorities are strongly committed to strengthen fiscal sustainability, advance structural reforms, and increase resilience to climate change and natural disasters.
June 30, 2023
United Kingdom-Anguilla-British Overseas Territory: Technical Assistance Report-Modernization of the Customs Legislative Framework
Description: The authorities in Anguilla sought technical assistance from CARTAC to conduct a comprehensive review if its customs legislation. It is recognized that the existing legal framework for customs is outdated and does not have the requisite foundation to support the modernization of Customs. The customs and Ministry of Finance have requested that the primary legislation be replaced by a completely new customs act based on the CARICOM model legislation for customs and, where appropriate to the context of Anguilla, also incorporates the provisions of the WTO TFA and WCO SAFE Framework.
June 30, 2023
Jordan: Sixth Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility and Request for Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Despite a challenging global environment, Jordan’s economy continues to grow, albeit at a moderate pace, and the outlook is generally positive. Inflation is slowing in response to the tightening of monetary policy and lower commodity prices, and is expected to end 2023 at 2.7 percent, from its peak of 5.4 percent in September 2022. The current account deficit is projected to narrow this year, although less than projected earlier, and international reserves to remain at a comfortable level. Notwithstanding these positive trends, job creation remains a challenge, and unemployment remains very high.
June 29, 2023
Republic of Madagascar: Fourth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria and Modification of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Madagascar
Description: Real GDP exceeded its pre-pandemic level in 2022. However, lower demand from trading partners, recent weather events, and possible rising political tensions in the runup to the November 2023 presidential elections will continue to weigh on the outlook in 2023. While the fiscal deficit has recently widened, the settlement of crossliabilities with oil distributors is expected to improve the fiscal balance in 2023 and reduce fiscal risks going forward.
June 29, 2023
Republic of Croatia: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Staff Statement
Description: On January 1, 2023, Croatia became the 20th member of the eurozone. The country posted another strong growth year in 2022, among the highest in the eurozone. But the momentum started to slow in H2, while inflation rose to a multi-decade high, reflecting indirect impacts from Russia’s war in Ukraine. Staff expects growth to moderate to 2.4 percent in 2023 and recover to its potential over the medium term. Inflation is projected to average 7½ percent in 2023 and gradually fall towards the 2 percent target. The outlook is subject to considerable uncertainty. Risks to growth are broadly balanced and risks to inflation are tilted to the upside.
June 29, 2023
Lebanon: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Lebanon
Description: Lebanon’s severe and multifaceted crisis, triggered by sizable deposit outflows and followed by the country’s first ever external public debt default, has been raging for more than three years. It was aggravated by the COVID-19 crisis and the Beirut port explosion in August 2020, but also allowed to persist and deepen by a failure to take much needed policy action, hampered by a lasting political crisis and resistance from vested interests to reforms. The economic and social impact of the crisis has been staggering: output contracted by an estimated 40 percent over 2019–22, the lira lost about 98 percent of its value in the parallel market, triple digit inflation has decimated real incomes, and unemployment and poverty have increased sharply. After three years, the public sector is failing, the provision of public services is almost nonexistent, and the banking sector has collapsed. Informality and the shadow economy have increased sharply.