Country Reports
2023
July 26, 2023
Italy: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Italy
Description: Output grew robustly in 2022 despite surging energy prices on the post-pandemic recovery and fiscal stimulus. Inflation jumped and the current account fell into deficit. Employment reached new highs. Fiscal support and higher borrowing costs kept deficits large and public debt very high. Bank credit has begun to decline although loan quality continues to hold up. Italy’s National Recovery and Resilience Plan (NRRP), supported by EU financial resources, aims to boost productivity and labor force participation, which would help offset the drag on growth from the declining working age population.
July 25, 2023
Burundi: Request for a 38-Month Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Burundi
Description: Burundi is a fragile state with a history of political tensions and weak institutions. The country fell into a political and security crisis following late President Nkurunziza’s decision to run for a third term in 2015. The economic recovery that was underway in 2019 was slowed by the COVID-19 pandemic. More recently, the country’s economy has been weakened by spillovers of the war in Ukraine, with a double-digit inflation, and domestic shocks, including delayed rainfall and outbreaks of livestock fevers. Burundi has benefited from debt relief under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (SDR 17.96 million), a disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (SDR 53.9 million, 35 percent of quota), and the 2021 SDR allocation (SDR 147.6 million). The 2022 Article IV Consultation was completed in July 2022, the first Article IV since 2014.
July 24, 2023
Republic of Congo: Republic of Congo: Third Review under the Three-year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility, Requests for Modification and Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Congo
Description: As declining oil prices and rising funding costs challenge Congo’s economic recovery, public debt remains high, and additional fiscal consolidation needs to compensate past fiscal slippages. Newly recognized domestic arrears and the temporary accumulation of new external arrears impede progresses made in debt repayment, implying that debt remains sustainable but “in distress”. Economic recovery will depend on regaining fiscal space, reducing debt levels, and continuing reforms promoting improvements in revenue generation, debt management, governance, and transparency. The second review of the three-year Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement (SDR 324 million, 200 percent of quota) that was concluded by the IMF Executive Board on February 6, 2023, provided support for this process.
July 21, 2023
Tuvalu: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tuvalu
Description: The 2023 Article IV Consultation discusses that a successful vaccination strategy allowed Tuvalu to lift coronavirus disease (COVID) containment measures at the end of 2022, but the economic cost of the pandemic has been significant. Real gross domestic product growth was -4.3 percent in 2020, with at-the-border containment measures leading to delays in much-needed infrastructure projects. Growth is expected to accelerate as the lifting of COVID restrictions leads to the resumption of construction activity, shipping bottlenecks ease and the trade and hospitality sectors recover. Tuvalu is among the countries most vulnerable to the effects of climate change; its remote economy is dominated by the public sector; and its revenue base is narrow, with reliance on donor commitments further complicating fiscal planning. The economic setback due to the pandemic makes addressing these significant structural challenges more difficult. The report recommends promoting fiscal sustainability and building buffers by mobilizing revenues and rationalizing current expenditures.
July 20, 2023
Kingdom of Lesotho: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: The government-driven growth model remains a challenge for sustainable and inclusive growth in Lesotho, displacing resources from the private sector. Growth and inflation are subject to the impact of the war in Ukraine, sluggish regional performance, climate shocks, and longstanding structural issues including governance and corruption vulnerabilities, limited financial access, and fragile public financial management. The recently-elected government is prioritizing fiscal consolidation on the back of windfall transfers from the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) that have helped alleviate pressures on both financing and reserves.
July 19, 2023
Grenada: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Grenada is simultaneously navigating the recovery from the pandemic and a rise in energy and food prices. Growth is estimated to have reached 6.4 percent in 2022, driven by a tourism rebound and private and public construction projects. Inflation rose from 1.9 percent at end-2021 to 2.9 percent by end-2022. The authorities’ policy response—facilitated by the build-up of fiscal buffers over the past decade—dampened the pass through from rising global food and fuel prices. Public debt is now back on a downward trend. The financial sector is well-capitalized and liquid although non-performing loans of credit unions have risen.
July 19, 2023
Euro Area Policies: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Euro Area; IMF Country Report No. 23/264
Description: The euro area economy has shown resilience in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the largest terms of trade loss in several decades, reflecting strong policy efforts to secure gas supplies and cushion disposable incomes. Nonetheless, activity has weakened, with the economy slipping into a mild technical recession in early 2023, and inflation is far above target. While headline inflation has started to decline with the easing of supply bottlenecks and energy prices, core inflation is proving more persistent. Euro area banks are well capitalized and liquid overall, but the rapid tightening of monetary policy after a prolonged period of accommodation can expose pockets of weakness in the financial system, including in the nonbank sector.
July 19, 2023
Kenya: Fifth Reviews Under the Extended Fund Facility and Extended Credit Facility Arrangements and Request for a 20-Month Arrangement Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility, Requests for Extension, Rephasing, and Augmentation of Access, Modification of a Performance Criterion, Waiver of Applicability for Performance Criteria and Waiver of Nonobservance for a Performance Criterion, and Monetary Policy Consultation Clause-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kenya
Description: The Kenyan economy faces multiple near-term challenges—including limited fiscal and external buffers, elevated cost of living, exchange rate pressures, tight financial conditions—while global headwinds are weighing on activity. Tackling these challenges and ensuring a steady reduction of Kenya’s debt and debt vulnerabilities will require addressing difficult policy trade-offs with mutually reinforcing policies and carefully prioritizing the authorities’ “bottom-up” reform agenda. Downside risks to the program baseline are significant in the near term from elevated uncertainty in major economies’ outlook and in the event of insufficient policy actions to sustainably address the FX market dislocation, elevated inflation, and emerging slowdown in tax revenues.