Country Reports
2023
September 7, 2023
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bosnia and Herzegovina
Description: After a strong post-pandemic rebound in 2021, growth moderated to 3.9 percent in 2022 (from 7.4 percent in 2021), with Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) beset by negative food and fuel price shocks, the economic slowdown in Europe, and ongoing domestic political tensions. Inflation has been declining from an all-time high of 17.4 percent in October, but it remains high. Most structural reforms remain on hold, and EU candidacy status, granted in December 2022, has yet to create momentum.
September 6, 2023
Saudi Arabia: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Informational Annex
Description: Saudi Arabia’s economy is booming, unemployment is at a record low, the output gap is closed, inflation is contained, and fiscal and external buffers have been rebuilt. The continuation of Vision 2030 reforms has helped advance the country’s economic diversification agenda, including through reduced reliance on oil.
September 5, 2023
Jamaica: First Reviews Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line and Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangements-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jamaica
Description: Jamaica’s commitment to macroeconomic stability and strong policy frameworks continue to allow the country to navigate the difficult global environment. Strong growth continued over the last fiscal year, and sound macroeconomic policies are focused on prioritizing sustainability, supporting growth, and facilitating the convergence of inflation to the midpoint of the central bank’s target band. There are significant risks ahead—from tighter than expected global financial conditions, commodity price volatility, and natural disasters—but the economic outlook remains a positive one.
September 5, 2023
Republic of Lithuania: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Lithuania
Description: The strong post-pandemic recovery led to demand driven inflationary pressures. Supply side bottlenecks and large increases in commodity prices after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine compounded these pressures and resulted in high and persistent inflation. The negative impact on disposable income, higher interest rates and weaker external demand have led to a deterioration of economic activity. If high inflation becomes entrenched, it will erode competitiveness and slow the successful convergence process. The financial system has ample liquidity and capital buffers to address the weakening economic cycle. Higher interest rates have boosted banks’ profitability, but they also bring significant risks.
September 4, 2023
Nordic-Baltic Regional Report: Technical Assistance Report-Nordic-Baltic Technical Assistance Project Financial Flows Analysis, AML/CFT Supervision, and Financial Stability
Description: Recent money laundering cases have exposed financial integrity risks from cross-border payments and potential impact on financial stability to the integrated Nordic-Baltic financial sector, attracted international scrutiny of anti-money laundering and combating the financing of terrorism (AML/CFT) supervision throughout the region, and so accelerated the momentum for reform. The purpose of the project is to conduct an analysis of cross-border money laundering (ML) threats and vulnerabilities in the Nordic-Baltic region – encompassing Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Iceland, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, and Sweden (the Nordic-Baltic Constituency or NBC) – and issue a final report containing recommendations for mitigating the potential risks.
August 31, 2023
Botswana: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Botswana
Description: The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that following a strong recovery of almost 12 percent growth in 2021, Botswana’s economy grew by 5.8 percent in 2022, significantly above the long-run average of 4 percent. The authorities plan a fiscal expansion in FY2023 followed by two years of substantial fiscal adjustment to reach a small fiscal surplus by FY2025. Growth is expected to slow in 2023 due to a projected decline in diamond production, with the weaker global environment likely to depress other exports. Inflation has fallen since August 2022, returning to the central bank’s objective range. The authorities plan a fiscal expansion in FY2023 followed by two years of substantial fiscal adjustment to reach a small fiscal surplus by FY2025, but implementation risks are elevated. Structural transformation of the economy aims at diversifying production, increasing the relative size of the private sector, and enhancing resilience to external shocks.
August 31, 2023
Botswana: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper discusses reforming the state-owned enterprises (SOE) sector in Botswana. The authorities are committed to diversifying the economy and growing the relative size of the private sector but, until now, progress has been limited. Compared to other emerging markets, SOEs operate in similar industries but government ownership is considerably higher in Botswana. The authorities are taking steps to liberalize some sectors, as part of efforts to enhance productivity and improve market functioning. Two entities are involved in the oversight and monitoring of SOEs, potentially creating risks of overlap and duplication. A review of past country experiences with SOE reforms highlights several key ingredients for success. A favorable political environment combined with strengthened state oversight and monitoring functions. Several countries now subject SOEs to competition law, compensating them for public service obligations, requiring them to separate the accounts of commercial and noncommercial activities, setting guidelines for financing decisions, or establishing financial performance targets.
August 31, 2023
Lao People’s Democratic Republic: Technical Assistance Report-Regulation and Supervision of Crypto Assets
Description: This technical assistance report describes the regulation and supervision of crypto assets in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (LAO P.D.R.). Crypto uptake in Lao P.D.R. seems to be limited so far, and so consumer protection risks appear contained. The authorities are in the process of considering an appropriate regulatory and supervisory framework for mining and trading activities. The current regulatory framework for crypto trading platforms is a positive step to managing risks but would benefit from key prudential and conduct additions. Authorities should continue their efforts to coordinate domestically and cooperate with foreign peer regulators. Due to the novelty of the industry and the limited size of the Lao PDR market, the most prominent risks arising from crypto trading in the short term are likely to be generated by complex interconnections within crypto markets and broader financial markets. The mission commends the authorities in their coordinated approach to this new regime, and would like to encourage them to continue deepening that coordination.
August 30, 2023
Haiti: Staff-Monitored Program-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This paper presents Haiti’s Staff-Monitored Program (SMP). Building on progress achieved under the previous SMP, which was satisfactorily concluded in May 2023, the new 9-month SMP should contribute to macroeconomic stability by helping Haiti sustain recent policy reforms designed to enhance economic resilience and governance. Haiti faces a challenging macroeconomic outlook amid a dire humanitarian crisis. The country has been hit hard by economic spillovers from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, including food price inflation that has triggered a hunger crisis. This global shock has been compounded by a highly volatile security situation in Haiti, which has heightened the economy’s fragility. The authorities have also recently made a formal request for an IMF Governance Diagnostic, which is a very welcome development and will help Haiti solidify the early improvements achieved during the recently concluded SMP. The diagnostics are designed to help inform governance and anti-corruption strategies, including sequencing of reforms.
August 29, 2023
Singapore: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Singapore
Description: The 2023 Article IV Consultation highlights that Singapore’s post-pandemic recovery is nearly complete. Strong economic fundamentals and the authorities’ decisive policy responses, including an unprecedented policy stimulus, supported a rapid recovery from the coronavirus disease 2019 shock. Macro policies are appropriately tight to moderate price pressures in 2023. The Monetary Authority of Singapore tightened monetary policy under its unique framework five consecutive times since October 2021, and has paused so far in 2023, given negative imported inflation and projected below-trend growth this year. Should downside risks materialize, Singapore can continue to deploy its ample fiscal buffers to cushion the economic impact, with targeted fiscal support continuing to be the first line of defense. In a downside scenario where high inflation is combined with severe strains in financial markets, the pace of tightening would need to be adjusted to avoid a broadening of financial stability concerns.