Country Reports
2024
January 26, 2024
Republic of North Macedonia: 2023 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Precautionary and Liquidity Line-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of North Macedonia
Description: Recent Developments, Outlook and Risks. Staff project GDP growth of 2.3 percent in 2023, lower than at the time of PLL arrangement approval, driven by lower external demand and a slowdown in investment. Staff expect an investment recovery to be a key driver of the recovery in 2024, with projected GDP growth of 3.0 percent. Inflation is coming down, driven by monetary tightening and lower global commodity prices, and is projected to be at 4.5 percent average in 2024. The current account is benefitting from lower international energy prices, and international reserves are at an adequate level and projected to remain so. Risks are mainly related to geopolitical tensions, commodity price volatility, and unfunded promises ahead of the elections planned for the spring.
January 25, 2024
Ghana: 2023 Article IV Consultation, First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility, Request for Modification of Performance Criteria, and Financing Assurances Review-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ghana
Description: Large external shocks in recent years exacerbated pre-existing fiscal and debt vulnerabilities, resulting in an acute crisis in 2022. In response, the authorities have adjusted macroeconomic policies, made significant progress on a comprehensive debt restructuring, and launched wide-ranging reforms. These efforts are bearing fruit, and signs of economic stabilization are emerging. Growth in 2023 has proven resilient, inflation has declined, and the fiscal and external positions have improved. Nonetheless, fully and durably restoring macroeconomic stability and debt sustainability and fostering a sustainable increase in economic growth and poverty reduction will require steadfast policy and reform implementation.
January 24, 2024
Greece: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece
Description: Greece’s economic outlook has improved notably, but significant challenges remain. The economy has resumed income convergence, ending a decade of stagnation with high unemployment and low investment amid large deleveraging. Real GDP has expanded beyond the pre-pandemic trend level, driven by the cyclical recovery of tourism demand and the resumption of structural reforms and investment in the context of Next Generation EU. Strong growth and high inflation have brought the public debt-to-GDP ratio down below its pre-pandemic level with limited financing risks in the medium term due to the favorable debt structure. However, despite regaining sovereign investment grade status and improving bank balance sheets, the economy is facing macro-financial challenges amid significant monetary policy tightening, persistent core inflation, and rising real estate prices. Structural imbalances arising from low household savings and still low level of investment as well as increasing risks from climate change are weighing on medium-term growth prospects.
January 23, 2024
Antigua and Barbuda: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: Antigua and Barbuda’s economy continues its solid expansion with growth projected at 5.7 percent for 2023. Tourism and construction activity have both been strong, with real activity expected to return to its pre-pandemic level during 2023. After reaching 9.2 percent at end-2022, inflation fell to 6.6 percent by August of this year, with core inflation steadily declining. The current account deficit widened to an estimated 16.2 percent of GDP in 2022 with higher tourism receipts more-than-offset by an increase in goods imports and a worsening in the terms of trade. The current account deficit is expected to fall to around 12 percent of GDP this year. The rebound in nominal GDP lowered public debt to 87 percent of GDP at end-2022, from 95 percent of GDP at end-2021. Nonetheless, gross financing needs are high, and there has been limited progress in resolving arrears to creditors and domestic suppliers. Financial sector balance sheets are healthy. However, credit union lending has continued to grow rapidly, albeit from a low base, raising concerns about future credit quality.
January 19, 2024
Maldives: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Bank Stress Testing and Climate Risk Analysis
Description: A systemic vulnerability analysis and stress tests were conducted as part of the Maldives FSAP. The vulnerability analysis and stress tests were based on quarterly aggregate balance sheet supervisory data for the eight banks in Maldives as of December 2022. Identified vulnerabilities were subjected to hypothetical extreme but plausible scenarios that were informed by the Risk Assessment Matrix. Risks analyzed were credit risk, liquidity risk and market risk. Credit risks materialized as non-performing loans and pressure on pre-provision income, liquidity risks as deposit outflows, and market risks as changes in interest and exchange rates.
January 19, 2024
Maldives: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Financial Safety Net and Crisis Management Arrangements
Description: Maldives legislation includes important elements of a financial safety net and crisis management framework but there are areas for streamlining and improvement. Shortcomings in the early intervention and bank resolution frameworks need to be addressed, including internal arrangements on the escalation process from the exercise of the MMA’s power to take enforcement actions through to the initiation of resolution. The overall design of the resolution tools is complex -the MBA includes different mechanisms for the same resolution tools- and requires streamlining. MMA should develop an effective emergency liquidity assistance framework. Deposit insurance system should be enhanced.
January 19, 2024
Maldives: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note on Macroprudential Policy
Description: The Maldives Monetary Authority (MMA) is the entity responsible for maintaining financial stability. The Board of the monetary authority has decision-making powers over MMA’s three mandates (in order of priority): maintain price stability, maintain financial stability, provide assistance to the government in attaining economic development and stability. To maintain financial stability, MMA regulates and supervises the financial institutions and oversees the payments and settlements system. It also houses a Credit Information Bureau (CIB), a key element for both micro and macroprudential supervision. The securities market, outside of the scope of MMA, is regulated by the Capital Market Development Authority (CMDA).