Country Reports
2019
February 22, 2019
Uruguay: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Republic of Uruguay
Description: This Article IV Consultation highlights that Uruguay has preserved macroeconomic stability in the wake of the turbulence in the region due to prudent policies and the accumulation of buffers over the years. With the worsening outlook and less friendly external environment, in the near term, policies should focus on maintaining resilience. In this context, additional efforts are needed to put debt on a firm downward trajectory and reduce inflation to within the target band. The IMF staff assesses that the external position is broadly consistent with fundamentals and desirable policy settings. The authorities and IMF staff have remained in broad agreement on the macroeconomic policy objectives, including maintaining public debt on a sustainable trajectory, keeping inflation low, and allowing exchange rate to adjust in line with fundamentals. Fiscal adjustment, however, has not proceeded as quickly as had been originally expected, and inflation has proven difficult to contain within the authorities’ target range.
February 22, 2019
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: Selected Issues Paper
Description: This Selected Issues paper presents a quantification of the long-term benefits of ex-ante resilient investment and insurance needs against natural disasters (ND) in Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU). Cost-benefit analysis of resilient investment based on a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model tailored to small states and calibrated to all ECCU economies is also discussed in the paper. The model’s aggregate production function illustrates the interaction among the participating sectors and their contribution to output, ultimately informing the role of resilient investment. The study also quantifies government insurance coverage needs and costs using an empirical stochastic model that simulates NDs fiscal costs. The insurance needs are framed within the World Bank insurance layering framework. The results in this paper underscore the importance of a shift from ex-post recovery to a focus on ex-ante resilience building. Ex-ante resilient investment and insurance are key to the welfare and financial sustainability of the ECCU, given high intensity and recurrence of NDs.
February 22, 2019
Eastern Caribbean Currency Union: 2018 Discussion on Common Policies of Member Countries-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union
Description: This 2018 discussion on common policies of the Eastern Caribbean Currency Union (ECCU) highlights that the member countries are gradually recovering following the catastrophic impact of Hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. Conditions remain favorable to growth, however, risks are increasing. The fiscal balance for the region as a whole worsened in 2017, reflecting lower inflows from citizenship-by-investment programs and higher reconstruction and current spending. The IMF team made several policy recommendations including shifting focus from the current emphasis on recovery from natural disasters to building ex-ante resilience. The report also recommends intensifying decisive and timely actions to resolve weaknesses in the financial sector, including longstanding problems in the banking sector and emerging risks in the non-banking sector. The authorities expressed commitment to the acceleration of key reforms to upgrade and strengthen the financial sector regional oversight framework. In addition to fiscal consolidation, injecting new vigor into the structural policy agenda will help enhance competitiveness and make growth more inclusive.
February 22, 2019
Uruguay: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes the sectoral trends and the impact of the real effective exchange rate (REER) changes on sectoral exports using the detailed product data from the United Nations’ Commodity Trade Statistics Database (Comtrade). This paper focuses on Uruguay’s product- and sector-specific global export market shares. It also estimates the sensitivity of these market shares to real effective exchange rate by using the product data from the Comtrade database and building on the work presented in IMF (2017). The paper estimates the elasticities of product market shares with respect to real exchange rates for Uruguay only. Rather than using time dummies to isolate the potential impact of the time trend, the lagged value of the change in shares as an additional independent variable has been added. The paper concludes that Uruguay’s manufacturing exports are sensitive to the changes in REER, and, accordingly, that productivity-enhancing measures to promote competitiveness would be beneficial.
February 21, 2019
Australia: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Supervision, Oversight and Resolution Planning of Financial Market Infrastructures
Description: This paper analyzes systemic risks related to Financial Market Infrastructures (FMI) in Australia, in particular central counterparties (CCP). Supervision and oversight of FMIs is well-established with supervisory expectations importantly strengthened over the past few years. It is recommended that the Reserve Bank of Australia considers reviewing its approach to payment systems oversight, in particular by providing greater clarity as regards requirements for systemically and less systemically important payment systems. The IMF team suggests that Australian authorities could benefit from the experiences of and lessons learned by other jurisdictions through their regular and more specialized coordination and communication efforts with other supervisors and resolution authorities. The authorities should also review, and could benefit from, the experiences of and lessons learned in the formulation and codification of Australia’s bank and insurer resolution regime. Enforcement powers for the supervision of CCPs and Securities Settlement Systems should however be strengthened in accordance with the Principles for Financial Market Infrastructures.
February 21, 2019
Australia: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Australia
Description: This Article IV Consultation highlights that Australia experienced only a minor downturn after the end of the mining investment and commodity price boom but, as elsewhere, the adjustment and rebalancing has been slow, with below-target inflation and low wage growth amid economic slack. Macro-financial vulnerabilities relating to high household debt and low housing affordability have become major concerns after a recent housing boom. The baseline forecasts entail a soft landing in the housing market, but a stronger market correction remains a risk. Overall, near-term risks to growth are to the downside, mirroring the global risk picture, with the impact of shocks potentially being amplified by high household debt. The IMF staff welcomes the authorities’ continued commitment to working actively with international partners to promote the global multilateral trading system. Macroeconomic policy support should remain in place until full employment and inflation in the target range are firmly within reach. The structural policy agenda appropriately targets innovation, infrastructure gaps, tax reform, and energy policy, although progress has been limited in some areas.
February 21, 2019
Australia: Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: This paper presents Financial System Stability Assessment of Australian financial systems. The report highlights that financial supervision and systemic risk oversight have been enhanced. And the authorities have taken successful policy action to calm rapid growth in riskier segments of the mortgage market. Restrictions on the growth of investor loans and the share of interest-only mortgages, as well as the introduction of stronger lending standards, appear to have led to a slowdown in mortgage credit growth, and the housing market is now cooling. Financial supervision shows generally high conformity to international best practices, although there are opportunities to close identified gaps and strengthen arrangements. Steps are recommended to bolster the independence and resourcing of the regulatory agencies, by removing constraints on their policy making powers and providing additional budgetary autonomy and flexibility. The paper explains that greater formalization and transparency of the work of the Council of Financial Regulators would further buttress the financial stability framework.
February 21, 2019
Australia: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Bank Resolution and Crisis Management
Description: This technical note analyzes the existing legal and institutional frameworks in Australia, including coordination arrangements and focuses on crisis preparedness, including recovery and resolution planning as well as the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) lender-of-last resort functions. The analysis highlights that Australia has a well-established framework for financial stability, surveillance and policy formulation and the resolution regime for financial institutions has been significantly enhanced since the financial crisis. Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has made progress in developing recovery planning requirements for the banking industry, extending these from large to medium sized and smaller banks. However, there is a need to better integrate the recovery planning within the risk management framework and operational testing exercises and to significantly enhance APRA’s work on resolution planning, particularly for the largest banks. The paper recommends that the Australian authorities should introduce an ex-ante funded deposit insurance scheme, based on best international practice.
February 21, 2019
Australia: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Insurance Sector: Regulation and Supervision
Description: This technical note provides an update on the Australian insurance sector and an analysis of certain key aspects of the regulatory and supervisory regime. The note analyzes the practice in relation to selected Insurance Core Principles (ICPs) in the context of a wider discussion of key issues in regulation and supervision. Despite the negative impact of the low interest rate environment, the life insurance industry retains sufficient loss absorption capacity. The Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) has undertaken a comprehensive reform of prudential regulation while improving the consistency of the framework between life and general insurers. This focused review confirms that prudential regulation and supervision by APRA is reasonably conservative. The risk-based capital framework is reasonably conservative, which facilitates supervisory risk assessments. APRA has high technical capacity to conduct effective supervision. While there are some gaps in the regulatory regime, APRA seeks to address these through its supervisory process. The report recommends that APRA should expand and deepen its scrutiny of group activities, especially those entailing risky investments and material intragroup transactions.
February 21, 2019
Australia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper evaluates Australia’s experience with its principles-based fiscal framework. A key contribution of the paper is an evaluation of whether the medium-term budget balance anchor remains suitable in the post-Global Financial Crisis (GFC) economic environment. This paper analyzes the medium-term fiscal strategy (MTFS) in the context of the principles underlying the fiscal framework and offers suggestions for reinforcement. Comparing the alternative and current fiscal policy toolkits under a downside scenario demonstrates possible improvements to fiscal outcomes. The evaluation outlines that the operational principles of the MTFS have been consistent with the broad principles for sound fiscal policy laid out in the Charter, although implementation has involved difficult trade-offs. Options to deal with the treatment of debt, its accountability framework and its fiscal policy toolkit should help strengthen the statement and implementation of Australia’s fiscal strategy and reinforce its fiscal framework in the current and prospective economic environment.