Country Reports
2019
March 14, 2019
Zambia: Technical Assistance Report-Government Finance Statistics Mission
Description: This Technical Assistance (TA) report focuses on four key work areas which may lead to improvement of Government Finance Statistics (GFS) for fiscal analysis, support policy making decisions in Zambia, and improve African Department surveillance. The mission found out that the Coordinating Committee, recommended in the previous TA mission, was not yet established. The mission reviewed progress on the legal and institutional arrangements supporting the compilation of GFS as a follow up from recommendations of the previous GFS TA mission and found that the legislation reforms were on track, especially regarding the Public Finance Act. The report also found that Central Statistical Office (CSO) is working on the revision of the Statistics Act to follow the new strategy for National Development of Statistics. For sustainability and consistency purposes, the mission recommended that the CSO staff produce a GFS manual for compilation and dissemination of GFS data.
March 12, 2019
Greece: First Post-Program Monitoring Discussions-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Greece
Description: This paper discusses Greece’s First Post-Program Monitoring discussions. The economic recovery in Greece is accelerating and broadening. Growth and job creation in Greece are expected to accelerate further in 2019. However, vulnerabilities remain significant and downside risks are rising. Policies to promote stronger growth and strengthen the economy’s resilience were the focus of the discussions. The discussion report emphasises on the importance of enhancing labor market flexibility and boosting productivity and competitiveness. Greece should reconsider recent changes in collective bargaining policies and press ahead with its unfinished reform agenda. This would also help mitigate any negative effects on competitiveness and employment from rising wage pressures. Speeding up efforts to clean up bank balance sheets, restore lending, and improve Greece’s weak payment culture is also of prime importance. Medium-term public debt repayment capacity remains robust, but subject to rising risks amid still significant vulnerabilities.
March 11, 2019
Belgium: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Belgium
Description: This Article IV Consultation highlights that Belgium has experienced nine consecutive years of economic growth. Per capita GDP has surpassed pre-crisis levels, and unemployment is at its lowest level in four decades. The financial sector has also undergone structural changes and increased its resiliency to shocks. The authorities have implemented important reforms in recent years that have contributed to job creation, improved competitiveness, and lowered the deficit. However, the reform agenda is unfinished, and the new government should take advantage of the still favorable economic conditions to press ahead with further reforms to strengthen the resilience and growth potential of the economy. The priority should be to rebuild fiscal buffers by gradually moving toward a balanced budget in the medium term, supported by efficiency-oriented spending reforms. It is also imperative to boost productivity growth by supporting entrepreneurship, increasing investment in infrastructure, strengthening competition in services, and fostering innovation.
March 8, 2019
Malaysia: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malaysia
Description: This Article IV Consultation highlights that the Malaysian economy has shown resilience and continues to perform well. Policy priorities are governance reforms and fiscal consolidation while safeguarding growth and financial stability. Structural reforms are needed to boost productivity and help further rebalancing growth towards domestic demand. Domestic demand is expected to remain the main driver of growth over the medium term. Risks to the outlook are to the downside and stem mainly from external sources. The paper also discusses that with growth returning to sustainable levels and no underlying inflation pressures, maintaining the current broadly neutral monetary policy stance is appropriate. Exchange rate flexibility should remain the first line of defence against external shocks. Also, governance reforms should be anchored in legislation to ensure the independence of anti-corruption institutions and appropriate separation of powers. Focus should be on improving the transparency and efficiency of public services.
March 8, 2019
Malaysia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes saving to understand history and identify the drivers in Malaysia. IMF analysis suggests that Malaysia’s current account (CA) surplus is higher than warranted by medium-term fundamentals and desired policies. The changes in the corporate saving rate almost entirely reflect the changes within each group of firms of similar size or age. Leveraging firm-level data for listed firms, the paper focuses on the contribution to the CA surplus of private non-financial corporations. The trend analysis indicates a high dependence of listed firms in Malaysia on internal funds (savings) to finance their investments or, equivalently, a lower dependence on external funds. The results suggest that relaxing firms’ external financing constraints and lifting productivity growth could help encourage investment and reduce excess corporate saving. The regression results show that the transaction cost and precautionary saving motives, as well as their interaction with external financing dependence, could play an important role in explaining corporate net saving.
February 27, 2019
Malta: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper assesses the marginal impact of promoting inclusive growth in Malta. The paper uses a multi-country simulation model, the IMF’s Flexible System of Global Models calibrated for Malta, is used to analyze the macroeconomic impacts of ongoing and potential future reforms. Three different policies are analyzed, namely: increasing childcare and after care benefits; extending working lives; and upskilling the labor force. The model shows that the reduction of absolute poverty has been accompanied by rising inequality. The simulation evaluates the macroeconomic impact of introducing free childcare, which is the actual government policy since 2015. Simulations show that policies that are primarily aimed at improving social inclusion also end up boosting potential output, thereby mitigating the fiscal cost of such policies in the long term. Recent declines in poverty rate can partly be ascribed to the cycle, however, recent structural reforms likely have had a significant impact on growth.
February 27, 2019
Malta: Financial System Stability Assessment
Description: This Financial System Stability Assessment of Malta shows that while Malta has benefited from considerable financial inflows, the associated risks, especially related to money laundering and terrorism financing, need to be closely monitored and addressed. Key metrics suggest that the banking system is in good health, but challenges exist. The banking system remains resilient under a severe scenario, with weaknesses limited to a few small banks. The system is sufficiently capitalized to absorb losses in the event of a severe macroeconomic shock, but risky exposures would lead to potential losses at a few small banks. The analysis suggests that ensuring adequate resources is critical to preserve the effectiveness and operational independence of the Malta Financial Services Authority (MFSA). In order to strengthen bank supervision, the MFSA should take timelier supervisory actions, increase the frequency of onsite inspections, make more use of monetary fines as part of the sanctioning regime, and ensure supervisory action is not delayed through judicial appeal.
February 27, 2019
Malta: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Malta
Description: This Article IV Consultation highlights that Malta has been one of the fastest growing countries in the European Union after the crisis, because of a rapid structural rebalancing towards export-oriented services—mainly remote gaming and tourism. The authorities are now exploring new development areas around the blockchain technology. As per the authorities, domestic demand would continue to be the main driver of growth, and persistent labor market tightness might eventually put some pressure on wages and prices. They consider global protectionism as a key external risk and emphasized ongoing actions to address domestic risks related to money laundering. The report also shows that Malta’s new development areas related to the distributed ledger technology present both opportunities and risks. The IMF team stresses that policies should focus on enhancing the economy’s resilience, ensuring financial stability and integrity and making growth more inclusive. It is important to promote strong and inclusive growth by encouraging further labor market participation of women and elderly workers.
February 26, 2019
Somalia: First Review Under the Staff-Monitored Program-Press Release; and Staff Report
Description: This first review under the Staff-Monitored Program (SMP) of Somalia highlights that supported by a favorable rainy season, economic growth is recovering and inflation easing. However, unemployment is very high, and development and social needs are very large. Policy discussions centered on the 2018 supplementary budget, the 2019 budget, as well as the macroeconomic framework. Discussions also laid the groundwork for the second and final review under SMP III and on near-term policy priorities. All end-June and end-September 2018 indicative targets and all structural benchmarks (SBs) have been met. Of the 10 remaining SBs, due end-December 2018 and end-March 2019, preliminary information suggests that two have already been met, progress has been made towards achieving seven others, but completion of one SB is likely to be delayed. Considering satisfactory performance under the SMP and the authorities’ continued strong commitment to reform implementation, the IMF staff supports the completion of the first review under SMP III. Risks to the program and the outlook remain elevated; however, a continued commitment to reform and donors’ sustained support will help mitigate the risks.
February 25, 2019
St. Vincent and the Grenadines: 2018 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report and Statement by the Executive Director for St. Vincent and the Grenadines
Description: This Article IV Consultation highlights that following the opening of a modern international airport, signs of an economic recovery have emerged, with increased direct flights from major cities in the United States and Canada and renewed interests from foreign investors in tourism projects. The overall fiscal balance has improved over the past few years, and the debt to GDP ratio fell in 2017 for the first time since 2007. However, despite these positive developments, St. Vincent and the Grenadines faces challenges in sustaining the growth momentum over the longer-term. Like other Caribbean economies, its high exposure to natural disasters, limited land, narrow production and exports base, weak business competitiveness, and limited physical and human capital constrain potential growth. The financial system remains broadly stable but has vulnerable spots in the non-bank financial sector. It is important to implement structural reforms to foster private sector activity, by improving the investment environment and strengthening physical and human capital.