Country Reports
2019
March 25, 2019
Morocco: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary and Financial Statistics Mission (July 17 - 28, 2017)
Description: This Technical Assistance Report discusses the finalization of the development of standardized report forms (SRF) for other financial corporations (OFC). The mission held constructive discussions with Bank Al-Maghrib’s (BAM) staff on various other aspects of the compilation of monetary and financial statistics (MFS) aimed at improving the quality of the data. These discussions led to the preparation of a detailed action plan with the following priority recommendations carrying particular weight to make headway in improving MFS. The mission held constructive discussions with the staff of the Banking Supervision Department on the classification in the monetary statistics of the financial products offered by Islamic banks. The mission supported BAM proposal to develop a reporting form for the collection of bank source data on securities valuation. The mission made recommendations to improve the sectoring of the financial statements of finance companies and offshore banks.
March 25, 2019
Republic of San Marino: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of San Marino
Description: This Article IV Consultation highlights that deep-rooted weaknesses in the banking system have undermined economic activity and are now threatening financial stability and fiscal sustainability. Significant deposit outflows have left the banking system with low liquidity, while persistent losses and high non-performing loans (NPLs) resulted in sizable recapitalization needs, particularly in the state-owned bank. Growth is projected to remain subdued in the coming years, reflecting continued banking sector deleveraging and a less favorable external environment, most notably in Italy. Slow progress in repairing the banking sector, and full and upfront recognition of the state’s financial commitments to the banking system are the key risks. Urgent actions are needed to restore banking sector viability and credit supply, safeguard public finances, and promote sustained economic growth. It is recommended to strengthen labor supply by better targeting social benefits and further relaxing the hiring process of non-residents.
March 22, 2019
Bulgaria: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Supplement; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria
Description: This Article IV Consultation highlights that economic performance remains robust but risks to the outlook are tilted to the downside amid slowing external demand. Sound macroeconomic policies notwithstanding, Bulgaria faces a sizable income gap vis-à-vis the EU average and unfavorable demographic prospects. The main policy challenge is to raise growth potential, which calls for broad-based structural reforms to improve public goods provision and institutions. The Article IV discussions focused on medium-term reforms to improve public goods provision and raise potential growth and on near-term policies to enhance financial sector stability. Fiscal policy is broadly appropriate, but the efficiency of spending and revenue administration could be further improved. Stronger public investment management would improve investment efficiency and transparency. Better performance of state-owned enterprises would help raise growth potential and mitigate fiscal risks. Bank profits have risen and non-performing loans (NPLs) have continued to decline, although they are still high among EU countries. The central bank should ensure that banks with high NPLs have adequate capital buffers.
March 22, 2019
Bulgaria: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines corporate productivity growth in Bulgaria using firm-level data. Firms with a higher share of innovative assets and lower financial distress are estimated to have higher productivity growth. Foreign, larger, and younger firms and firms in the tradable sectors also generally had faster productivity growth. The convergence of productivity to frontier firms may have slowed after the global financial crisis for existing firms. The evidence points to technological convergence for both total factor productivity and labor productivity to industry leaders. The result is robust with the coefficient statistically significant at the 1 percent level in all specifications. Policies that support R&D and innovation, improve business environment, and reduce debt service burden could potentially help raise productivity growth. Bulgaria’s R&D spending lags behind other EU countries and there is ample room for improvement. A better business environment supported by stronger institutions could help improve company’s profitability and financial health, raise investment, and attract more foreign direct investment, all conducive to raising productivity growth.
March 21, 2019
Ecuador: 2016 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This Article IV Consultation discusses that declining oil prices, US dollar appreciation, and limited access to international financing have worsened the fiscal, economic, and financial outlook. The focus of discussions was that despite the weak prospects there are still downside risks in the event that oil prices fall again, external financing becomes even more constrained, or confidence in the economy and the banking system begins to weaken. In the financial system, the main concern resides in a short-term risk of liquidity shortfalls, but credit quality concerns dominate over the medium term. The authorities’ policy response to the imbalances has been timely but still insufficient given the size of the shocks, the urgent nature of the vulnerabilities, and reduced foreign currency reserves. Real GDP is expected to contract significantly this year and next. In order to prevent liquidity risks in the financial system, the authorities should limit recourse to domestic financing and, as necessary, assist in a timely way banks that develop liquidity or capital shortfalls, as well as enhance crisis preparedness and contingency planning.
March 21, 2019
Guinea: Technical Report-Public Investment Management Assessment
Description: This Technical Report discusses Guinea’s Public Investment Management Assessment (PIMA). This report presents public investment trends and the public investment efficiency gap, details the results of the assessment, and offers recommendations to improve PIM in Guinea. The institutional PIM framework has more strengths than weaknesses, despite being incomplete, while PIM effectiveness shows more weaknesses than strengths. Guinea recently signed roughly 20 public–private partnership (PPP) contracts through direct negotiation, although the institutional framework for PPPs is not yet finalized; this represents a source of potential financial risk that has not been evaluated. It is important to ensure that PPPs are adequately addressed in the legal and regulatory framework and to promote public access to information to uphold the principles of competition, efficiency, transparency, and, in particular, to open unsolicited proposals to competition. The report highlights that if Guinea is to reap the full benefits of its increasing capital spending, the authorities need to focus on correcting PIM weaknesses and improving the efficiency of PIM.
March 20, 2019
Ecuador: Selected Issues Paper and Analytical Notes
Description: This Selected Issues paper estimates Ecuador’s potential growth in the range of 1 3/4 to 3 percent. The lower estimate corresponds to an extrapolation of recent trends while the higher estimate could be achievable through the implementation of a reform agenda that addresses fiscal and competitiveness challenges of Ecuador. The paper also develops models to nowcast and forecast GDP to improve the accuracy of growth projections. The oil sector remains an important driver of economic activity; however, it is not as important as it once was. A simple growth accounting exercise is used to decompose Ecuador’s growth between production factors accumulation; capital and labor, and total factor productivity. The study shows that low total factor productivity is the reason behind Ecuador’s recent economic decline and has been a negative contributor to long-term growth. The paper also explores different vector autoregression models to identify the best one to forecast real GDP in Ecuador.
March 20, 2019
Ecuador: Staff Report for the 2019 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Ecuador
Description: This paper discusses Ecuador’s 2019 Article IV Consultation and Request for an Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility. The Article IV discussions focused on diagnosing the nature of the imbalances facing Ecuador and the policy changes that will be needed to address them. There was broad agreement that fundamental supply-side efforts will be needed to foster competitiveness, create jobs, rebuild institutions, and make Ecuador a more attractive destination for private investment. Consistent with the findings of the Article IV, the authorities’ policy plan seeks to decisively address the systemic vulnerabilities facing Ecuador. The goals of these policies are to boost competitiveness and job creation, protect the poor and most vulnerable, fortify the institutional foundations for dollarization, and to improve transparency and good governance to public sector operations while strengthening the fight against corruption. The report suggests that improving the social safety net and increasing the effectiveness of public spending, particularly on health and education, will be essential to achieving strong, sustained, and socially equitable growth.
March 14, 2019
Zimbabwe: Technical Assistance Report-Monetary and Financial Statistics Mission
Description: In response to a request from the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ), and with the support of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) African Department (AFR), a monetary and financial statistics (MFS) technical assistance mission visited Harare, Zimbabwe, during October 16–27, 2017. The mission’s main objective was to assist the RBZ in finalizing its work of compiling MFS of the Central Bank (CB) and Other Depository Corporations (ODCs) in accordance with the Monetary and Financial Statistics Manual and Compilation Guide (MFSMCG). Compilation of these data will lead to the regular reporting of improved monetary data for publication in International Financial Statistics (IFS) and provide MFS data for use by the IMF African Department (AFR) and the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe in their research and publications.
March 14, 2019
Montenegro: Technical Assistance Report-Financial Soundness Indicators Mission (November 29 - December 5, 2017)
Description: This Technical Assistance (TA) report focuses the compilation of financial soundness indicators (FSI) for the deposit takers (DTs), which cover 15 commercial banks, using the chart of accounts (COAs) and supervisory series as source data. The regulatory and accounting practices of the DTs are broadly in line with the FSI Guide, which defers to Basel principles and International Accounting Standards. The mission recommended an action plan with the following priority recommendations to support progress in the FSI compilation. The mission highlighted the need to complement the FSI data with the corresponding metadata. Metadata should also contain information on the content and coverage of the FSIs, as well as the accounting conventions and other national guidelines. As the financial performance of commercial banks’ counterpart sectors as well as key markets has direct impact on the soundness of the financial sector, it is recommended to coordinate with regulators of other financial institutions that are not under the Central Bank of Montenegro’s supervision to draw a work program to collect data for compiling FSIs for other financial corporations.