Country Reports
2019
May 1, 2019
Republic of Uzbekistan: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
Description: This Fiscal Transparency Evaluation report highlights that Uzbekistan is embarking on a comprehensive reform program to strengthen public financial management and fiscal transparency. Wide-ranging reforms to improve the coverage, reliability, quality, and accessibility of fiscal reports are being developed and implemented, and some good progress already made. This assessment of fiscal transparency practices has been undertaken to support the government’s efforts to increase transparency by identifying priority areas for reform. An evaluation of practices against the IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code (the Code) finds that tangible gains have been made over 2017 and 2018. In several areas where Uzbekistan’s practices do not currently meet the basic standard required under the Code, quick progress can be made. The report also provides a more detailed evaluation of Uzbekistan’s fiscal transparency practices and recommended reform priorities. Strengthening legislative oversight of the state budget with a view to reducing the extent to which in-year changes can be made to aggregate expenditures without prior parliamentary approval.
April 30, 2019
Paraguay: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Paraguay
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation on Paraguay focused on the policies needed to promote long-term growth, widen the tax base, improve public spending efficiency, and strengthen financial sector supervision. Poverty has fallen sharply, from 58 percent in 2002 to 26 percent currently, although it remains one of the highest in Latin America. Continued convergence is expected to help reduce poverty further and help generate revenues to finance large spending needs. The banking sector is well-capitalized and stable, but the casas de credito and casas comerciales need to be better understood and supervised. The pension system needs reform, both to prevent large pension deficits in the future, and to boost the development of the domestic capital market for long-term instruments. The authorities concurred with IMF staff’s assessment of the main bottlenecks to long-term economic growth. They also agreed structural reforms would help to attract more foreign investments and increase the dynamism of domestic private sector.
April 30, 2019
Paraguay: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper investigates the reasons for the growth pickup in Paraguay and explores the potential for sustainable future growth. It shows that the growth acceleration over the past 15 years is the combined result of a few factors: a bounce back from the crisis in the late 1990s and the subpar growth of the two decades prior; a benevolent external environment, the commodity price boom in particular; and the improved macroeconomic stability. Also in terms of its composition, growth in the past has largely been extensive, mostly coming from capital deepening and increasing labor inputs, rather than productivity increase, though total factor productivity growth has played a bigger role in the most recent years. Despite strong growth in recent years, like most of the Latin America, seen over a longer period, Paraguay has not attained significant economic convergence with advanced economies. Empirical data shows a strong linkage between the GDP per capita of a country and its score in a composite structural indicator such as the World Competitiveness Index, which Paraguay ranked poorly on. Identifying and correcting Paraguay’s structural deficiencies that may be hampering productivity growth and capital accumulation will be crucial for sustainable growth.
April 30, 2019
Kingdom of Lesotho: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Kingdom of Lesotho
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that while international reserves are at adequate levels and banks remain well-capitalized in the Republic of Lesotho, domestic arrears are beginning to impact the broader economy, exacerbating growth challenges posed by structural impediments. The recently passed FY2019/20 budget envisages an ambitious consolidation that could begin to lay the groundwork for a transition to private-sector driven growth. Construction related to the second phase of the Lesotho Highlands Water Project will support medium-term growth, and the diamond and textile industries have positive prospects. Fiscal adjustment is needed to address government arrears, buttress debt sustainability, and safeguard the link to the rand. Generating strong and inclusive growth will require improved public service delivery and the private sector to become the primary engine of job creation. Better targeting of the government’s resources, Public Financial Management reforms, and reorienting both expenditures and the role of government in the economy will be critical to achieve these goals.
April 30, 2019
Republic of Madagascar: Technical Assistance Report—Report on Technical Assistance Mission in External Sector Statistics (July 2-13, 2018)
Description: This Technical Assistance report highlights that the mission visited Madagascar to aid in the external sector statistics (ESS), including the balance of payments and international investment position (IIP). The mission focused on assisting improving the coverage of IIP by better using the administrative sources or by identifying new data sources for private sector. A more sustained effort must be applied to the collection system to ensure the timelier submission of data of adequate quality. The compilation of the quarterly ESS, which is one of the main ESS objectives, requires both an increase in the number of compilers and a change of approach in the collection of source data. The quarterly data are compiled on the basis of the ESRI and should be supplemented by the collection of quarterly data using a simple survey of major public and private enterprises. The mission recommended a detailed one-year action plan with a set of priority recommendations carrying particular weight to make headway in improving the ESS.
April 30, 2019
Bhutan: Technical Assistance Report-Royal Monetary Authority-Steps Towards a Liquidity Forecasting and Management Framework
Description: This Technical Assistance report highlights that setting up a liquidity forecasting framework would go a long way in establishing a key building block allowing the Royal Monetary Authority of Bhutan (RMA) to fulfil its legal mandate to formulate and implement monetary policy in ways better aligned with current central bank practices. The structural liquidity surplus, mainly due to foreign reserves accumulation, has been broadly stable in the absence of RMA intervention. The paper discusses that the volatility of autonomous factors and the fragmentation of the money market justify ambitious steps by the RMA towards setting up a liquidity management framework. The mission identified several constraints and gaps that need to be addressed to support the effectiveness of a liquidity forecasting framework. The mission’s recommendations presented in the report aim at streamlining the processing of the Government’s financial transactions and cash balances. Looking ahead, monetary policy transmission would benefit from developing RMA’s liquidity forecasting and management capacity.
April 29, 2019
Mauritius: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper develops a Financial Conditions Index (FCI) for Mauritius—an instrument to gauge the operational state of the financial sector and predict real economy activity. The evolution of Mauritius’ financial services sector has been supported by a vibrant offshore corporate sector. Given the strong macro-financial linkages, it is imperative to closely monitor domestic financial developments. Financial developments are broader than monetary developments depicting money supply and interest rates. The FCI is a robust predictor of real GDP growth in Mauritius. The FCI can also help inform macroprudential policy decisions. Decisions on setting the countercyclical capital buffer of Basel III could be informed by analyzing developments in the FCI. As historically Mauritius has not experienced drastic swings in financial credit, testing the constructed FCIs for predicting boom-bust episodes is difficult. Nevertheless, the FCI signaled lax financial conditions in 2009 and again in 2012 that likely contributed to accelerated credit growth in 2012–2013 and a subsequent acceleration in nonperforming loans during 2014–2016.
April 29, 2019
Colombia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper examines the impact of the Financing Law on both tax revenues and the economy. This paper assesses the main tax measures introduced by the law and their dynamic impact on tax revenue through macroeconomic transmission channels. Despite various reforms in recent years, non-oil tax revenues in Colombia remain comparatively low. The Financing Law should raise tax revenues in 2019 but will likely create shortfalls thereafter. The model-based simulations point to sizeable increases in private investment. The simulations suggest that the Law could boost medium-term growth by around 0.2 percent of GDP but will reduce tax revenues by over 1/2 percent of GDP in the medium term. The key channel is through a lower corporate burden through lower corporate income tax and allowing input credit for value added tax on capital goods. The analysis finds that the Law may boost medium-term growth by around 0.2 percent of GDP, but it may lead to future tax revenue shortfalls starting in 2020.
April 29, 2019
Mauritius: Staff Report for the 2019 Article IV Consultation
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that Mauritius is pursuing an ambitious strategy to foster inclusive growth and reach the high-income country milestone. Several structural challenges, notably, a shortage of suitably skilled workers, an aging population, and declining productivity and cost competitiveness confront Mauritius in meeting these goals. The discussions focused on preserving fiscal sustainability, regaining external competitiveness, and maintaining financial integrity and stability. Several steps have been undertaken to boost skill development, improve the business climate, and build innovation capacity. On the expenditure side, economic activity is expected to be spurred in the near term by public spending on infrastructure projects and sustained in the medium term as those projects and productivity-enhancing reforms improve private-sector competitiveness. It is recommended to pursue fiscal consolidation from the forthcoming budget FY2019/20 to build fiscal credibility and set public debt firmly on a declining path into the medium term.
April 29, 2019
Colombia: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Colombia
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses Colombia’s economy that is improving drastically and is supported by very strong policy frameworks and well-executed policies. The recovery is gaining momentum and external imbalances have widened. Despite weaker-than-expected external demand, activity is expected to accelerate in 2019. Rebounding investment, continued policy support, and substantial migration from Venezuela are expected to lift growth to 3.6 percent while the current account deficit is expected to remain wide. The authorities expect the recovery to gather momentum in 2019 and inflation to remain close to target. Structural reforms are needed to boost inclusive growth and enhance external competitiveness. Addressing infrastructure gaps, strengthening governance and the rule of law, reducing informality, and enhancing customs and other trade practices are crucial. The draft National Development Plan rightly identifies key priorities and lays out a roadmap for reforms.