Country Reports
2019
May 16, 2019
Republic of Mozambique: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Mozambique
Description: This paper discusses Republic of Mozambique’s Request for Disbursement under the Rapid Credit Facility (RCF). Reflecting the large budgetary and external financing gaps arising from emergency assistance and reconstruction needs, the authorities are seeking financial assistance under the RCF exogenous shock window. The financial assistance is intended to address large budgetary and external financing gaps arising from reconstruction needs after Cyclone Idai, which caused significant loss of life and infrastructure damage. The authorities remain committed to macroeconomic stability, which will also be underpinned by the IMF’s financing. The authorities are reallocating lower priority spending to emergency assistance, however, their room for manoeuvre is limited and the bulk of emergency assistance and reconstruction needs will have to be covered by the international community mostly in the form of grants to ensure debt sustainability. The authorities shared staff’s main policy recommendations, namely increasing the economy’s resilience and preparedness to adverse weather events that are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate change.
May 15, 2019
Jordan: Second Review Under the Extended Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, an Extension of the Arrangement, and Rephasing of Access-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Jordan
Description: This paper discusses Jordan’s Second Review under the Extended Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, Requests for a Waiver of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion, an extension of the arrangement, and rephasing of access. Discussions highlight that the Jordanian authorities have preserved macroeconomic stability, maintain a prudent monetary policy, and ensured a sound financial system. Jordan faces a challenging environment—including low economic growth, high unemployment, and elevated public debt—underscoring the importance of swiftly implementing policies and reforms to bring public debt on a downward path, boost investment and productivity, and enhance inclusive growth. The enactment of long needed growth-enhancing reforms is encouraging, including the secured transactions law, the bankruptcy law, and the business-inspections law. The international community has strongly supported the new government’s commitment to maintain the reform momentum, strengthen growth, and reduce public debt. The London Initiative in February 2019 has helped unlock essential budget grants and concessional financing to support the authorities’ reform program.
May 15, 2019
Republic of Armenia: Fiscal Transparency Evaluation
Description: This paper presents Fiscal Transparency Evaluation (FTE) for Armenia. This report provides 10 recommendations aimed at further enhancing fiscal transparency in the areas prioritized. Fiscal forecasts and budgets have become more forward looking and policy oriented, with the introduction of a medium-term expenditure framework (MTEF), improved fiscal objectives, and a performance budgeting system. The report presents the assessment of fiscal transparency practices against the IMF’s Fiscal Transparency Code (FTC). Armenia’s fiscal transparency practices have strengths and weaknesses in all areas of FTC: fiscal reporting, fiscal forecasting and budgeting, and fiscal risk disclosure and management. The fiscal transparency evaluation also estimates Armenia’s public sector financial position, in order to provide a more comprehensive view of public finances. Expanding the institutional coverage of Armenia’s fiscal reports to the entire public sector would increase the deficit by 1.3 percent of gross domestic product and would have a material impact on revenue and expenditure.
May 13, 2019
Republic of Korea: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Korea
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses Korea’s economy that has strong fundamentals; however, it is facing cyclical and structural headwinds. Potential growth will continue its decline, and polarization and inequality are concerns. Labor and product market duality persist. The government is focusing on supporting income, creating jobs, and promoting innovation. The government has focused on supporting income, creating jobs, and promoting innovation. It has strengthened social safety nets, substantially raised the minimum wage, supported small-and-medium enterprises to boost employment, and expanded public sector jobs. Fiscal policy should remain expansionary in the medium term, focusing on increasing social protection, boosting female labor force participation, and supporting growth enhancing structural reforms. Public sector job creation should be linked to developing services that cannot be provided by the private sector. The minimum wage increase for next year should be set below labor productivity growth. The IMF staff recommend an integrated package of macroeconomic, financial and structural policies to support growth, raise potential output, and reduce excess internal and external imbalances, while preserving financial stability.
May 13, 2019
Republic of Korea: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper analyzes monetary policy and financial cycles; the evolution of macroprudential policies in Korea; the efficacy in prudential policies in taming financial excess and building financial resilience and; the interaction between monetary policy and macroprudential policies. Evidence for Korea suggests that financial stability will not necessarily materialize as a natural by-product of a so-called appropriate monetary policy stance. Although the effects of monetary and macroprudential instruments may overlap, they are not perfect substitutes. Macroprudential policies can also impact the banking system by affecting bank funding costs through the net interest margin. In certain circumstances borrower-based prudential measures and monetary policy can complement one another. Macroprudential policies can impact banks profitability. Policymakers should be mindful that macroprudential policy is not free of costs and that there may be trade-offs between the stability and the efficiency of financial systems.
May 10, 2019
Luxembourg: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Luxembourg
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation discusses that Luxembourg’s growth prospects remain favorable, but downside risks arise from a weaker-than-expected global growth, a disorderly Brexit, changes in international tax rules, and a sharp tightening of global financial conditions. Domestically, rising real estate prices could exacerbate already elevated household indebtedness and increase affordability challenges. Fiscal policy should aim to maintain a strong fiscal position and preserve buffers. The government’s plans, while appropriate, will result in a slightly expansionary budget in 2019. The cost and timeline of the planned measures over the medium term remain to be determined. Given risks ahead, including from potential changes in international taxation, Luxembourg should build on its strong fiscal record and preserve sizeable buffers. Structural policies should focus on addressing key gaps in the economy. Further reforms of the pension system are needed to ensure its sustainability, while considering intergenerational equity and trade-offs of various reform options.
May 10, 2019
Luxembourg: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper studies the fiscal and macroeconomic impact of different reform options. It analyzes the impact of an increase in the contribution rate, a reduction of benefits, and an increase in the retirement age. Although all reform options can lead to the fiscal sustainability of the system, there are important macroeconomic trade-offs among them. Although the Luxembourg’s pension system is sound over the near term, further reforms are needed to ensure its long-term sustainability. This paper explored the fiscal and macroeconomic impact of several reform options: an increase in the contribution rate, a reduction of benefits, and an increase in the retirement age. Although all these reforms would help ensuring fiscal long-term sustainability, there are important macroeconomic trade-offs. Even though an increase in contribution rates can be implemented immediately, it introduces distortions in the labor market which lead to a decline in GDP in addition to a decline in consumption.
May 9, 2019
Republic of Uzbekistan: 2019 Article IV Consultation-Press Release and Staff Report
Description: This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that given its bulging working-age population, creating more and better jobs is the country’s overarching priority. Uzbekistan has already implemented a first wave of important economic reforms, including foreign exchange liberalization, tax reform, and a major upgrade in statistics. Faced with a vast structural reform agenda, the authorities want to prioritize reforms that address the economy’s most damaging distortions first. The main short-term macroeconomic stability challenge is to prevent a credit boom that could generate excessive external deficits and aggravate inflation pressures. A tight monetary stance and moderate fiscal deficits need to be maintained to support macroeconomic stability. Credit growth will need to slow significantly to assure the economy’s external and internal balance. The sustainable development goals are anchoring the country’s inclusive growth agenda, especially on education, health, public infrastructure, and financial inclusion. Moreover, the authorities are redesigning labor policies from scratch to help unskilled and other disadvantaged workers find more and better jobs.
May 9, 2019
Republic of Poland: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Macroprudential Policy Framework
Description: This Technical Note on Macroprudential Policy Framework for the Republic of Poland highlights that the present macroprudential policy framework provides a sound basis for macroprudential oversight of the financial system and was established by law in November 2015. Its relatively recent establishment implies that practical experience with the conduct of macroprudential policy under the framework is still limited. Initial experience is favorable, however, it remains to be seen how the framework will function under more challenging circumstances. The Financial Stability Committee—Macroprudential (FSC-M) has recommended a variety of measures to provide incentives for voluntary restructuring of foreign exchange housing loans extended by Polish banks. It is recommended that the FSC-M further strengthens its communication in order to increase transparency and accountability, considers a more active use of targeted statements as a policy instrument, and increases the involvement of external experts in the preparation of its meetings.
May 9, 2019
Republic of Poland: Financial Sector Assessment Program-Technical Note-Insurance Sector Regulation and Supervision
Description: This Technical Note on Insurance Sector Regulation and Supervision provides an update and an assessment of the development of regulation and supervision of the Polish insurance sector since an assessment concluded in 2012. The note focuses on key issues, with reference to international standards but without presenting a detailed assessment of Poland’s observance. The supervision of intermediaries has also been strengthened in line with a 2012 Financial Sector Assessment Program recommendation. The Solvency II changes appear well-embedded, without significant exemptions or transitional arrangements. With limited long-term guarantee business, life insurers have currently no need for the special measures adopted for such business in many EU countries. However, the recent emergence of the first Polish financial conglomerate, which is headed by an insurer, poses supervisory challenges. In respect to the selected other areas of the insurance framework that were reviewed, the findings highlighted strengths in the approach, with some scope for further development.