Country Reports
2024
June 24, 2024
Luxembourg: Financial Sector Assessment Program—Technical Note on Stress Testing and Systemic Risk Analysis
Description: This paper focuses on a technical note on Stress Testing and Systemic Risk Analysis for the Luxembourg Financial Sector Assessment Program. The Luxembourg financial system is highly interconnected, diverse and complex. It has displayed a high level of resilience in the past but currently faces a backdrop of heightened economic, financial, and geopolitical uncertainty. The banking, insurance and investment fund sector stress tests were integrated in a number of ways, and included key external and domestic risks. Under the adverse scenario, the banking system would experience a significant decline in the system-wide capital ratio but would still be very well capitalized, thanks to healthy initial positions. The majority of banks would be able to sustain bank runs akin to those experienced in the US and Switzerland in March 2023, but some need attention. Despite resilience taken together, the assessment of banking sector vulnerabilities points to several areas where the authorities could prioritize supervisory attention. The increasing share of alternative investment funds and the higher interlinkages both within the investment fund sector and with the rest of the financial sector call for vigilance.
June 24, 2024
Bangladesh: Second Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and the Arrangement Under the Extended Fund Facility, and Requests for Rephasing of Access, a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Modifications of a Performance Criterion, and Second Review Under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bangladesh
Description: This paper presents Bangladesh’s Second Reviews under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and the Arrangement under the Extended Fund Facility, and Requests for Rephasing of Access, A Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion, and Modifications of a Performance Criterion, and Second Review under the Resilience and Sustainability Facility Arrangement. Bangladesh’s economy continues to face multiple challenges. Stubbornly high international commodity prices and continued global financial tightening have amplified macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Near-term policies should focus on rebuilding external resilience and bringing down inflation. The authorities’ recent actions to realign the exchange rate and implement the new exchange rate arrangement are welcome. Ongoing reforms to modernize the monetary policy framework and improve policy transmission will foster macroeconomic stability. Building resilience to climate change and natural disasters is a priority for achieving high, inclusive, and green growth. Strengthening institutions and policy coordination, improving climate spending efficiency, and mobilizing climate financing remain crucial. The launch of the Bangladesh Climate and Development Platform in collaboration with development partners is a welcome development.
June 24, 2024
Luxembourg: Financial Sector Assessment Program—Technical Note on Insurance Regulation and Supervision
Description: This technical note analyzes the key aspects of the regulatory and supervisory regime for insurance companies in Luxembourg. The analysis is part of the 2024 Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP) and based on the regulatory framework in place and the supervisory practices employed as of October 2023. The FSAP reviewed recent developments and the structure of the Luxembourgish insurance sector. The sector is large, well developed, and highly interconnected with other insurance markets through internationally active insurance groups and cross-border business. After having grown substantially in size, it is recommended to further strengthen the Commissariat aux Assurances’s (CAA) independence and its internal governance. The CAA’s staff has roughly doubled since the last FSAP but should be constantly reviewed with further expanding tasks. The authority’s independence could be further strengthened by safeguarding the independence of its Board members and narrowing down in the Insurance Act the reasons on which the CAA’s Directorate could be dismissed. The governance of the CAA would benefit from setting up an internal audit function, and strengthening IT governance as projects are currently conducted largely in-house.
June 24, 2024
Luxembourg: Financial Sector Assessment Program—Technical Note on Selected Issues in Banking Supervision
Description: This paper presents a technical note on Selected Issues in Banking Supervision for the Luxembourg Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). This review examines specific aspects of the banking supervision regime in Luxembourg focusing on the supervision by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) of Less Significant Institutions. No material weaknesses were identified in the CSSF’s supervisory processes in the areas of focus of the review—namely, LSI supervision of liquidity, interest rate risk in the banking book, operational risk, and related-party transactions. The financial sector in Luxembourg has continued to grow since the 2017 FSAP and plays key domestic and global roles. Luxembourg, as a founding Member State of the EU, the wider European Economic Area, and the Euro area, has incorporated European directives to regulate financial services. This includes the implementation of International Financial Reporting Standards for prudential reports in compliance with EU rules. Local Generally Accepted Accounting Principles are used for preparing annual statutory accounts, and the CSSF oversees the audit profession, approving statutory auditors and audit firms.
June 24, 2024
Luxembourg: Financial Sector Assessment Program—Technical Note on Investment Funds: Regulation and Supervision
Description: This paper highlights a technical note on Investment Funds: Regulation and Supervision for the Luxembourg Financial Sector Assessment Program (FSAP). Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier (CSSF) has a robust supervisory framework with substantive improvements since the last FSAP, but some areas could be further strengthened. Given the structural importance of delegation for Luxembourg domiciled funds, initiating an on-site inspection framework for delegates outside Luxembourg assumes importance. CSSF’s enforcement framework could be substantially improved through enhancements on four key fronts. CSSF could improve the domestic regulatory framework on areas such as winding up, valuation, and approach to indirectly regulated Alternative Investment Funds AIFs. Given Luxembourg’s position as the domicile of EU’s largest IF sector, CSSF should actively continue to promote and contribute to EU level reforms on various topics. With respect to liquidity risks, CSSF should continue to actively contribute to the European Securities and Markets Authority’s (ESMA) guidance on the use of Liquidity Management Tools and to engage closely with ESMA and the EU Commission on the proposed revision of the Eligible Assets Directive.
June 24, 2024
Switzerland: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; Informational Annex; and Statement by the Executive Director for Switzerland
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation discusses that growth is recovering gradually after slowing in 2023 in Switzerland. In order to counter risks of inflation moving to and settling at very low rates, the rate cut ahead of other central banks was appropriate. Going forward, monetary policy should remain responsive to incoming data, while taking into account international monetary policy developments. Banks have strong buffers, but vulnerabilities related to real estate persist. Ample capital buffers should be maintained, the macroprudential toolkit expanded, supply-side actions to stem pressure on the residential housing market advanced and data gaps closed. The authorities should continue to promote labor market and pension reforms to incentivize labor force participation of women, older workers, and immigrants and address labor shortages, skills gaps, and potential fiscal imbalances. The revised CO2 Act clarifies the policy framework for 2025–2030 but is less ambitious than initially proposed and might require acquiring more emissions-reduction credits from internationally. Advancing negotiations with the EU and enhancing cooperation with other key partners would mitigate uncertainty and strengthen resilience against geo-economic fragmentation risks.
June 21, 2024
Republic of Estonia: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper explains Estonia’s recent losses of export market shares. Estonia’s export market share has fallen sharply, signalling that exporters have difficulties to keep up with foreign competition. While the immediate cause of this decline can be traced back to an adverse combination of external shocks triggered by the war in Ukraine, signs of faltering export performance surfaced already in the aftermath of the global financial crisis, and thus predate recent shocks. Using a constant share decomposition, this paper shows that, unlike in Latvia and Lithuania, a significant portion of the decline in Estonia’s export share can be attributed to the ‘intensive margin’, i.e., a shrinking share of Estonia’s exports in the main destination markets—a sign of weakening external competitiveness and declining relative productivity. A few high-level policy implications can be drawn. Addressing the erosion of external competitiveness will require structural reforms aimed at enhancing productivity, removing impediment to a structural transformation of the economy toward more technologically intensive and higher value-added products and services, as well as efforts to ensure that real wage growth remains closely aligned with productivity growth. By addressing these underlying challenges, Estonia can restore external competitiveness and ensure continued convergence toward the income levels of EU most advanced economies and Nordic neighbors.
June 21, 2024
Republic of Estonia: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Republic of Estonia
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation with the Republic of Estonia’s highlights that the economy is caught in a prolonged recession. Russia’s war on Ukraine triggered supply side disruptions, shifting up price and cost levels compared to the euro area average and hurting competitiveness. These developments added to longer-standing problems. Led by a rebound of demand in export markets and a broadly supportive policy mix, growth is projected to recover during 2024. Despite the cyclical upswing, however, permanently higher input costs combined with weak productivity growth are expected to leave a scar, weighing adversely on Estonia’s external performance and on potential output. This baseline is uncertain, with risks still skewed to the downside. Greater emphasis should be placed on increasing corporate investment, improving the allocation of labor and capital, enhancing R&D investment and adoption of digital technologies in traditional sectors, while ensuring that real wage growth remains closely aligned with productivity growth. A more ambitious green transition would improve energy security and thereby the long-term sustainability of growth.
June 20, 2024
Bosnia and Herzegovina: Selected Issues
Description: This Selected Issues paper provides an overview of interest rate dynamics in Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) in relation to global and euro area trends following the recent cycle of monetary tightening. It analyzes the impact of interest rate dynamics on capital allocation both domestically and externally, with a focus on capital outflows. It concludes that the wider spread between domestic interest rates and euro area short-term rates has been associated with capital outflows of around KM 1.7 billion since the European Central Bank started tightening monetary policy in July 2022, mostly in the form of money market placements in the euro area. It also shows that the compression of local interest rates and the few alternative investment opportunities in a limited market appear to have resulted in households and firms placing most of their funds in short-term deposits, making bank funding less stable than under a longer maturity structure. It notes that this lack of investment opportunities may lead to crowding into the real estate sector, with possible implications for financial stability in the long term.
June 20, 2024
Bosnia and Herzegovina: 2024 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report
Description: The 2024 Article IV Consultation with Bosnia and Herzegovina discusses that growth has proven resilient despite the continued fallout from the war in Ukraine. Uncertainty around the outlook is high and downside risks outweigh, including an abrupt slowdown in Europe, increased commodity price volatility, and rising domestic political tensions. On the other hand, progress on the European Union accession path could provide a reform boost, with positive spillovers. Financial sector risks should continue to be closely monitored and crisis preparedness enhanced. Bank asset classifications and loan-loss provisions should accurately reflect credit risks and losses. Temporary measures that aim to contain increases in lending rates should be allowed to lapse this year as scheduled. Transitioning to green energy and preparing for the introduction of EU carbon pricing require immediate action. The authorities should introduce carbon pricing as soon as possible. Reforms to improve governance protect financial integrity, fight corruption, and step up digitalization should be accelerated to boost growth. The oversight, transparency, and operations of public enterprises should be improved, weaknesses in public procurement addressed, and public investment management strengthened.