Country Reports
2021
February 1, 2021
Bulgaria: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Bulgaria
Description: The economy contracted sharply amid two waves of COVID-19 infections, with the government providing sizable policy support. The outlook is very uncertain and the main challenge facing policymakers is to keep adjusting to changing circumstances. Over the medium term, structural reforms are needed that support inclusive income convergence toward advanced EU partners against demographic headwinds.
February 1, 2021
Tonga: 2020 Article IV Consultation and Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Tonga
Description: Tonga’s recovery following the devastation of the 2018 Cyclone Gita has been derailed by a double blow from the pandemic and Cyclone Harold. FY2020 GDP growth is estimated to fall to -2½ percent due to domestic containment measures, a sudden stop in tourism, and investment delays. The full brunt of the pandemic will be felt in FY2021 (beginning July) during peak tourism season, when a deeper contraction is expected. A worse outcome was avoided by early actions to close external borders—which has kept Tonga COVID-19-free—and prompt economic support. Beyond FY2021, the recovery is expected to resume in line with the global recovery, but the magnitude and trajectory is uncertain.
February 1, 2021
Guinea-Bissau: Request for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Guinea-Bissau
Description: Guinea Bissau is a fragile state with a long history of political instability. Poverty is high with about 67 percent of the population living below the poverty line of US$1.90 per day. The economy relies heavily on the production and exports of unprocessed cashew nuts, making most households highly vulnerable to cashew nut price shocks and climate change risks.
February 1, 2021
Central African Republic: First and Second Reviews Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criteria-Press Release; Staff Report; Staff Statement; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Central African Republic
Description: The Covid-19 pandemic had a substantial impact on C.A.R.’s economy but appears now somewhat contained. The number of positive cases and related deaths has been very limited over the last few months, even though most containment measures have been progressively loosened. Despite some progress since the February 2019 peace agreement, the security situation remains precarious. Despite some delays in voter registration, the first round of the presidential and general elections is still scheduled on December 27.
January 28, 2021
Myanmar: Requests for Disbursement Under the Rapid Credit Facility and Purchase Under the Rapid Financing Instrument-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Myanmar
Description: With the economy already slowing due to the COVID-19 pandemic in FY2019/20, a more intense second wave has hit Myanmar hard, inflicting large economic and social costs and straining the frail healthcare system. The needed strict lockdown measures have hurt manufacturing and spending further, while weak external demand has weighed on exports and tourism, though the kyat continued to appreciate as remittances remained robust. In FY2020/21, growth will decelerate further to 0.5 percent and open up external and fiscal financing gaps of about US$1 billion. The IMF’s RCF/RFI disbursement of 50 percent of quota (SDR 258.4 million) in June helped support the authorities’ policy response for FY2019/20, particularly for social and health spending, kept monetary financing within target, and catalyzed financing from external partners, including through the Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI).
January 28, 2021
The Bahamas: 2020 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Bahamas
Description: The economic impact of COVID-19 on The Bahamas is unprecedented. The archipelago was just recovering from the devastation of Hurricane Dorian in the fall of 2019, when the pandemic led to a sudden stop in tourism, the main source of income and employment. The authorities mounted a rapid emergency response to support the economy and vulnerable households and put in place strict containment measures. But amid limited testing and health resources, reopening the economy has been challenging.
January 28, 2021
The Gambia: First Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement, Financing Assurances Review, and Request for Augmentation of Access and a Waiver of Nonobservance of a Performance Criterion-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for The Gambia
Description: The IMF Executive Board approved, on March 23, 2020, a 39-month Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement in the amount of SDR 35 million (56.3 percent of quota) for The Gambia. The Gambia benefited from a Rapid Credit Facility (RCF) disbursement of SDR 15.55 million (25 percent of quota) approved on April 15, 2020 and is receiving debt service relief under the Catastrophe Containment and Relief Trust (CCRT) expected to total SDR 7.9 million (SDR 4.2 million of which has already been approved), to help meet heightened balance-of-payments and fiscal financing needs due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. While indicators point to a domestic weakening of the pandemic, the authorities are seeking an ECF augmentation of SDR 20 million (32.15 percent of quota) to meet balance-of-payments needs arising from fiscal measures to stimulate the economic recovery in 2021, strengthen public health preparedness, increase social spending to mitigate the effects of the pandemic. They are also requesting a waiver of nonobservance of a continuous performance criterion (a zero ceiling) on new external payment arrears of the central government.
January 26, 2021
Kenya: Technical Assistance Report—Improving the Quality of Fiscal and Public Debt Data (October 7-16, 2019)
Description: In response to a request from the Government of Kenya, an AFRITAC East (AFE) government finance statistics (GFS) technical assistance (TA) mission was conducted in Nairobi, Kenya, during October 7–16, 2019. The primary objective of the mission was to support staff in improving the quality of fiscal and public debt data for the general government and migration of the fiscal framework to Government Finance Statistics Manual 2014 (GFSM 2014) concepts to facilitate fiscal and debt policy analysis for improved public financial management. This is a continuation of the ongoing efforts in capacity development aimed at supporting member countries to adopt the GFSM 2014 and the Public Sector Debt Statistics Guide (PSDSG 2011).
January 22, 2021
Central African Economic and Monetary Community (CEMAC): Staff Report on the Common Policies of Member Countries, and Common Policies in Support of Member Countries Reform Programs-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for the Central African Economic and Monetary Community
Description: The economic shock associated with the COVID-19 pandemic is set to have long-lasting effects on the economic outlook for CEMAC. The pandemic itself seems to be now broadly under control in the region, and the policy response from national and regional authorities, supported by significant emergency financing by the Fund, helped mitigate the initial economic fallout. With lower medium-term oil prices, the outlook projects that CEMAC’s fiscal and external adjustments will be slower than previously envisaged, entailing large external financing needs (around €6.6 billion for 2021–23). Gross international reserves will now reach the equivalent of 5 months of imports by 2025 vs. 2022 pre-pandemic, while net foreign assets (NFA) will be below previous expectations. Public debt would remain at elevated levels, albeit on a declining trend after the increase in 2020. This outlook is highly uncertain and contingent on the evolution of the pandemic and its impact on oil prices. Other significant risks include: delayed implementation of the ongoing or a second phase of new Fund-supported programs, difficulties in filling large external financing needs, and a deterioration in the security situation.
January 21, 2021
Cabo Verde: Request for an Extension of the Program Under the Policy Coordination Instrument
Description: Cabo Verde’s Policy Coordination Instrument (PCI) is due to expire on January 15, 2021. In the attached letter, the authorities request its extension through March 31, 2021. Cabo Verde’s 18-month PCI was approved by the Executive Board on July 15, 2019. Two reviews have been concluded, with the second delayed by over a month due to additional work generated by the impact of COVID-19 for staff and for the authorities. The requested extension will provide additional time to conclude the third and final review under the PCI.