Working Papers
1991
January 1, 1991
Interest Rates in Mexico: The Role of Exchange Rate Expectations and International Creditworthiness
Description: This paper explores how interest rates on domestic financial assets in Mexico are linked to expectations of exchange rate changes and to perceptions about the default risks contained in Mexico’s external debt. It is shown that the interest rate differentials between peso- and U.S. dollar-denominated domestic assets reflected some concerns about the exchange rate policy during the period under study. In addition, the evidence suggests that the interest rate on a U.S. dollar-denominated Mexican domestic asset is linked (i.e., cointegrated) to the yield implicit in the secondary market price for external debt issued by Mexico.
Notes: Explores how interest rates on domestic financial assets in Mexico are linked to expectations of exchange rate changes and to perceptions about the default risks contained in Mexico's external debt. Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 4, December 1991.
January 1, 1991
Speculative Attacks
Description: A brief survey of the literature on speculative attacks is provided. The nature and causes of balance-of-payments crises, the implications for the behavior of the current account and the real exchange rate are discussed. Also, potential areas for future research on balance-of-payments crises are suggested.
January 1, 1991
Measuring the Role of Subnational Governments
Description: To measure subnational governments, only external money flows are counted, excluding intra-level transactions in measuring a level of government and all intergovernmental transactions in measuring general government. Control, finance, and administration should be distinguished in measuring centralization and each level’s share of general government, administered expenditures being net of grants given to other governments and financed expenditures net of grants received. Disparate decentralization of finance, control, and administration brings vertical imbalance, measured by the portion of a government’s expenditures not covered by its own resources and by the ratio of intergovernmental grants to total government expenditures.
January 1, 1991
On Interpreting the Random Walk Behavior of Nominal and Real Exchange Rates
Description: The random walk property of exchange rates is frequently regarded as carrying strong implications for the kinds of shocks that have driven exchange rates and the models appropriate for analyzing their behavior. This paper conducts stochastic simulations of Dornbusch’s (1976) sticky-price monetary model, calibrated for representative parameter values for the United States. It shows that the model is capable of generating time series for both real and nominal exchange rates that are statistically indistinguishable from random walks when all shocks are nominal.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 4, December 1991.
January 1, 1991
Interest Rates and Government Debt: Are the Linkages Global Rather Than National?
Description: Given the increasing integration of financial markets, a better understanding of the effects of fiscal deficits and debt on real interest rates might be obtained by taking a global, rather than a national, perspective. The paper constructs aggregate flow and stock data (including GDP, fiscal deficits, government debt, and saving rates) and examines the empirical evidence of the global effect of fiscal policies on interest rates. The sensitivity of the results to the choice of deficit (central or general government), public debt (gross or net), and saving (gross or net), as well as the level and method of aggregation, is also examined.
January 1, 1991
Mobilization of Savings in Eastern European Countries: The Role of the State
Description: As the countries of Eastern and Central Europe transform their economies from centrally–planned to market–oriented, the question of the role that the governments should play in mobilizing savings to ensure a high growth rate must be addressed. This paper argues that the issue of a good allocation of savings must precede that of mobilization. Much evidence suggests that major distortions have, in the past, dramatically reduced the productivity of investment. The paper discusses some of the institutional changes that will be necessary to ensure a better allocation of savings.
January 1, 1991
Welfare Costs of Inflation, Seigniorage, and Financial innovation
Description: This paper examines the welfare effects of mitigating the costs of inflation. In a simple model where money reduces transaction costs, a fall in the costs of inflation is equivalent to financial innovation. This can be caused by paying interest on deposits, indexing money, or “dollarizing.” Results indicate that financial innovation raises welfare in low inflation economies while reducing it in high inflation economies, due to the offsetting indirect effect of higher inflation to finance the budget.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 4, December 1991.
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