On Interpreting the Random Walk Behavior of Nominal and Real Exchange Rates

January 1, 1991

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

The random walk property of exchange rates is frequently regarded as carrying strong implications for the kinds of shocks that have driven exchange rates and the models appropriate for analyzing their behavior. This paper conducts stochastic simulations of Dornbusch’s (1976) sticky-price monetary model, calibrated for representative parameter values for the United States. It shows that the model is capable of generating time series for both real and nominal exchange rates that are statistically indistinguishable from random walks when all shocks are nominal.

Subject: Exchange rates, Foreign exchange, Forward exchange rates, Monetary base, Money, Purchasing power parity, Real exchange rates, Spot exchange rates

Keywords: Augmented Dickey-Fuller statistic, Box-Ljung Q, Exchange rates, Forward exchange rates, Monetary base, money supply innovation, nominal exchange rate, price level, random walk finding, random walk property, Real exchange rates, Spot exchange rates, stochastic process, test statistics, unit root, WP

Pages:
22
Volume:
1991
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5089/9781451842340.001
Issue:
007
Series:
Working Paper No. 1991/007
Stock No:
WPIEA0071991
ISBN:
9781451842340
ISSN:
1018-5941

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Notes

Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 38, No. 4, December 1991.

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