Working Papers
1991
October 1, 1991
An Empirical "Dependent Economy" Model for Pakistan
Description: While the “dependent economy” approach has been used extensively in theoretical work on developing countries, there is very little empirical analysis of it available in the literature. This paper specifies a dependent economy model which incorporates several developing-country features, including an explicit role for public investment and legal interest rate ceilings. The model is estimated for Pakistan and is used to analyze the country’s recent high growth-low inflation experience. In particular, the contribution that external inflows, in the form of workers’ remittances and concessional lending, may have made in generating this outcome is assessed.
October 1, 1991
The Effects of Inflationon Economic Growth: Lessons From Latin America
Description: This paper investigates the relationship between inflation and long-run growth. It presents an endogenous growth model that illustrates the channels through which inflation affects growth. The model highlights the effects of inflation on the productivity of capital and the rate of capital accumulation. The reduction in growth is caused by a diversion of resources away from activities that lead to faster rates of growth toward activities associated with reducing the costs of inflation. The negative association between inflation and growth is assessed empirically for a sample group of Latin American countries.
October 1, 1991
The Cost of Export Subsidies: Evidence From Costa Rica
Description: This paper develops a model to estimate the effects of export subsidies on the supply of exports. Using data for Costa Rica over the 1980’s, it is shown that while the export subsidy scheme in operation led to an increase in exports, the direct fiscal costs of the scheme were quite large. Furthermore, the subsidy scheme led to a significant increase of imports. These results suggest that elimination of export subsidies would not have a particularly harmful effect on the trade balance, and would increase the fiscal position and generate economic efficiency besides.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 39, No. 1, March 1992.
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1991
September 1, 1991
Fiscal Impulse
Description: The concept of fiscal impulse is defined, discussed, and differentiated from measures that attempt to summarize the macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy. Two methodologies are briefly discussed and their corresponding measures presented for the G-7 countries over the ten-year period ending in 1989. Controversies about the measure are highlighted and potential improvements are also discussed.
September 1, 1991
Islamic Banking
Description: Islamic banks are prohibited from charging or paying interest, and thus can operate only on the basis of profit-sharing arrangements. This paper provides a brief survey of the theory and practice of Islamic banking. It covers developments in Islamic banking since the mid-1970s, how such banks operate, and the analytical underpinnings of a financial system based on Islamic principles. Finally, the future of Islamic banking is assessed.
September 1, 1991
Credibility and Exchange Rate Management in Developing Countries
Description: The paper examines the role of credibility in the conduct of exchange rate policy in developing countries, The analysis is based on a model in which policymakers are concerned about inflation and external competitiveness. Price setters in the nontraded goods sector of the economy adjust prices in reaction to anticipated fluctuations in the domestic price of tradable goods. This type of model is showm to generate a “devaluation bias” which undermines the credibility of a fixed exchange rate. The effect of reputational factors, signaling considerations, and joining a currency union as possible solutions to this bias is examined.
September 1, 1991
China: Macroeconomic Cycles in the 1980's
Description: This paper explores the links between reforms, macroeconomic management and the occurrence of macroeconomic instability in China during the last decade, drawing upon previous analytical work and also employing the “Granger causality” test. It is concluded that the cycles did not originate with the reforms; rather their characteristics were modified by structural changes in the economy. It is further argued that the incompleteness of reforms (which renders macroeconomic management difficult) had the effect of exacerbating the cycles by increasing their amplitude and frequency. Finally, results from the Granger tests suggest that broad money would be a good intermediate target for monetary policy.