IMF Working Papers

China: Macroeconomic Cycles in the 1980's

By Hoe Ee Khor

September 1, 1991

Preview Citation

Format: Chicago

Hoe Ee Khor. China: Macroeconomic Cycles in the 1980's, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 1991) accessed December 26, 2024
Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper explores the links between reforms, macroeconomic management and the occurrence of macroeconomic instability in China during the last decade, drawing upon previous analytical work and also employing the “Granger causality” test. It is concluded that the cycles did not originate with the reforms; rather their characteristics were modified by structural changes in the economy. It is further argued that the incompleteness of reforms (which renders macroeconomic management difficult) had the effect of exacerbating the cycles by increasing their amplitude and frequency. Finally, results from the Granger tests suggest that broad money would be a good intermediate target for monetary policy.

Subject: Currencies, Imports, Industrial production, Inflation, International trade, Monetary base, Monetary expansion, Money, Prices, Production

Keywords: Broad money, Credit plan, Credit policy, Currencies, Establishment of the People's Bank of China, Further price liberalization, Imports, Industrial production, Inflation, Monetary base, Monetary policy, Monetary policy formulation, PBC credit, People's Bank of China, Price, Price determination, Price distortion, Price reform, Price system, Retail price index, Two-tier price system, WP

Publication Details

  • Pages:

    39

  • Volume:

    ---

  • DOI:

    ---

  • Issue:

    ---

  • Series:

    Working Paper No. 1991/085

  • Stock No:

    WPIEA0851991

  • ISBN:

    9781451954210

  • ISSN:

    1018-5941

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