Working Papers
1997
September 1, 1997
Shock Versus Gradualism in Models of Rational Expectations: The Case of Trade Liberalization
Description: This paper provides a new argument for “shock” versus “gradualism” in the implementation of trade policies. In the simple context of a small open economy with rational expectations, we consider the comparative welfare effects of eliminating an import tariff either immediately as an unanticipated shock, or gradually over a preannounced length of time. The gradualist policy introduces a distortion in consumption-accumulation decisions and generates welfare costs. And if the gradual change is extended over “too long” a period, these costs may exceed the long-run benefits of liberalization.
September 1, 1997
Explaining and Forecasting the Velocity of Money in Transition Economies, with Special Reference to the Baltics, Russia and other Countries of the Former Soviet Union
Description: The paper identifies a number of stylized facts on the behavior of key macroeconomic variables during high inflation and stabilization in countries in transition. To examine the extent to which these stylized facts conform to the predictions of standard open economy monetary theory, the paper develops a simple monetary model of the exchange rate incorporating price stickiness and inflation inertia, and carries out an econometric analysis of the behavior of real money balances during inflation stabilization. The paper concludes by assessing the prospects for velocity developments in countries in transition, including the likely pace of remonetization.
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1997
August 1, 1997
On the Speed of Transition in Central and Eastern Europe: Does On-the-Job Search Matter?
Description: This paper examines how the on-the-job search of workers in the state sector who are seeking jobs in the private sector affects private sector employment, the unemployment level, and the unemployment duration in the transition economies of Central and Eastern Europe. The main finding is that on-the-job searching can account for the coexistence of a quickly growing private sector and a high unemployment level of long duration. The paper also addresses the issue of the optimal (output maximizing) rate of state sector closure and finds that the rate is slower when workers are simultaneously job hunting than when they are not.
August 1, 1997
The Design of EMU
Description: Pursuit of price stability may, but need not, exacerbate output fluctuations. This paper discusses the monetary strategy of the European Central Bank, the intermediate targets that this should entail, and implications for accountability, transparency, and reputation. Country-specific shocks will remain but output correlation may not reflect the old pattern of core and peripheral countries. The Stability Pact will force some countries to switch off their automatic stabilizers; others, with fewer fiscal problems, can retain them. Output correlations in EMU may reflect a fiscal core and fiscal periphery. Additional labor market flexibility remains the best solution.
August 1, 1997
Public Disclosure and Bank Failures
Description: This paper examines how public disclosure of banks’ risk exposure affects banks’ risk-taking incentives and assesses how the presence of informed depositors influences the soundness of the banking system. It finds that, when banks have complete control over the volatility of their loan portfolios, public disclosure reduces the probability of banking crises. However, when banks do not control their risk exposure, the presence of informed depositors may increase the probability of bank failures.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 1, March 1998.
August 1, 1997
The Role of Fiscal Policy in Sustainable Stabilization: Evidence From Latin America
Description: This paper reviews the role of fiscal policy in a number of stabilization programs in Latin America since the early 1980s. The paper highlights the importance of sustainable fiscal adjustment in stabilization efforts, and discusses the main issues that arise in this context. By reviewing the Latin American experience, it is argued that responsibility for failed stabilization attempts can be traced to four main factors: inconsistent policy mixes; excessive reliance on temporary factors of improvement in the fiscal accounts; failure to implement fundamental fiscal reforms; and lack of complementary structural reforms.