Working Papers
1998
March 1, 1998
Virtual Deficits and the Patinkin Effect
Description: The paper develops a model of inflationary finance that defines the fiscal deficit as a function of the virtual deficit—a deficit that would be observed if inflation were zero. It studies the negative relationship between the inflation rate and real government expenditures—the Patinkin effect. The model outperforms others in explaining four-digit inflation rates that never explode into hyperinflation. It also explains how apparently expansionist fiscal policies end in real deficits that are small and compatible with the small amount of seigniorage that can be collected at high inflation rates. Finally, it applies the model to the case of Brazil.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 4, December 1998.
March 1, 1998
Preliminary Considerations of an Inflation Targeting Framework for the Philippines
Description: Monetary policy in the Philippines has had multiple objectives. Moreover, shifts in money demand and the money multiplier have made base money a less reliable anchor for monetary policy. Hence, on present policies, a steady reduction in inflation is not assured, and changes to the monetary policy framework should be considered. This paper reviews the benefits as well as the constraints of an inflation targeting framework and the necessary preconditions--both in terms of the institutional infrastructure and the appropriate inflation target--for its successful implementation, including the ability to forecast inflation reasonably well over policy-relevant time horizons.
March 1, 1998
Should Public Pensions be Funded?
Description: This paper outlines some of the arguments for and against the funding of public pensions, with a view to establishing whether there is an economic basis for judging funding to be superior to pay-as-you-go (PAYG). It is argued that funding does not have a clear advantage, and the case for a shift from PAYG to funding is thus an uneasy one. There is nonetheless growing advocacy of funded public pensions as part of an ideal pension system, which raises more general issues about the role of the public sector in pension provision.
March 1, 1998
Evaluation of Taxes and Revenues From the Energy Sector in the Baltics, Russia, and Other Former Soviet Union Countries
Description: This paper examines the level and structure of fiscal revenues from the Baltics, Russia, and other former Soviet Union countries’ (BRO) energy sector and suggests reforms in energy tax policy. Revenues from the oil and gas sectors are about half the level that might be expected from international comparisons. Low oil revenues result from infrastructure constraints on oil exports, weak tax administration, and inappropriate tax structures. Low gas revenues are due to low statutory tax rates, a tax structure that does not capture monopoly or resource rents, and weak tax administration. Taxation of oil products could be increased.
March 1, 1998
The Security Factor in The Political Economy of Development
Description: A country’s judiciary, police, and security forces are essential to protect the State from external aggression. By virtue of the State’s monopoly of coercion, they maintain a stable legal framework and the safety of persons and property. All these activities enhance a society’s productivity, but they also sustain the particular political regime—and its redistributive ethic—in power. They absorb resources, but they also waste them, since security forces tend to be rent-seekers. This paper analyzes both the productive and the unproductive side of security provision and shows that the balance depends on the nature of the political regime.
March 1, 1998
An Econometric Analysis of Countries' Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund
Description: While the literature on external debt repayment performance by sovereign debtors is extensive, repayment performance vis-à-vis the International Monetary Fund has not been dealt with separately. Given differences between the Fund and other providers of financial resources, this paper considers whether it is possible to distinguish through logit analysis between the countries that make timely repayments to the Fund and those that become overdue. The paper finds that the inclusion of Fund-specific financial variables and a small number of macroeconomic variables yields a highly significant econometric model of the probability of a country incurring Fund arrears.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 4, December 1998.
March 1, 1998
Islamic Banking: Issues in Prudential Regulations and Supervision
Description: This paper analyzes the implications of Islamic precepts on banks’ structure and activities, focusing on banking supervision issues. It points out and discusses these issues in the context of a paradigm version of Islamic banking, as well as in frameworks that fall between the paradigm version and conventional banking. The case of Islamic banks operating in a conventional system is also examined.
March 1, 1998
Dollarization of Financial Intermediation: Causes and Policy Implications
Description: This paper presents a portfolio model of financial intermediation in which currency choice is determined by hedging decisions on both sides of a bank’s balance sheet. Minimum variance portfolio (MVP) allocations are found to provide a natural benchmark to estimate the scope for dollarization of bank deposits and loans as a function of macroeconomic uncertainty. Dollarization hysteresis is shown to occur when the expected volatility of the inflation rate is high in relation to that of the real exchange rate. The evidence shows that MVP dollarization generally approximates actual dollarization closely for a broad sample of countries, and policy implications are explored.
March 1, 1998
Coordination of Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Description: Recently, monetary authorities have increasingly focused on implementing policies to ensure price stability and strengthen central bank independence. Simultaneously, in the fiscal area, market development has allowed public debt managers to focus more on cost minimization. This “divorce” of monetary and debt management functions in no way lessens the need for effective coordination of monetary and fiscal policy if overall economic performance is to be optimized and maintained in the long term. This paper analyzes these issues based on a review of the relevant literature and of country experiences from an institutional and operational perspective.
March 1, 1998
The Statistical Measurement of Financial Derivatives
Description: The System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA) provided new standards for the statistical treatment of financial derivatives. Subsequently, financial derivative markets have evolved, and there have been requests from national statisticians for clarification and amplification of the recommendations in the 1993 SNA and the fifth edition of the IMF’s Balance of Payments Manual (BPM5). Meeting this need is the main purpose of this working paper. Its recommendations have been widely discussed in international meetings and have been approved by bodies that effect changes in the 1993 SNA and BPM5.