An Econometric Analysis of Countries' Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund

March 1, 1998

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Format: Chicago

Lynn Aylward, and Rupert Thorne. An Econometric Analysis of Countries' Repayment Performance to the International Monetary Fund, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 1998) accessed November 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

While the literature on external debt repayment performance by sovereign debtors is extensive, repayment performance vis-à-vis the International Monetary Fund has not been dealt with separately. Given differences between the Fund and other providers of financial resources, this paper considers whether it is possible to distinguish through logit analysis between the countries that make timely repayments to the Fund and those that become overdue. The paper finds that the inclusion of Fund-specific financial variables and a small number of macroeconomic variables yields a highly significant econometric model of the probability of a country incurring Fund arrears.

Subject: Arrears, Debt burden, Debt service, Exports, External debt, International trade

Keywords: Adjustment program, Arrears, Arrears case, Arrears to the fund, Clearing procedure, Debt burden, Debt service, Exports, Fund arrears, Fund quota, Global, Per capita income, Repayment behavior, Repayment history, Repayment performance, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

47
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 1998/032
Stock No:

WPIEA0321998
ISBN:

9781451979893
ISSN:

1018-5941

Notes

Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 45, No. 4, December 1998.

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