Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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1998
March 1, 1998
Regional Trade Agreements Versus Broad Liberalization: Which Path Leads to Faster Growth? Time-Series Evidence
Description: Should a closed economy open its trade to all countries or limit itself to participation in regional trade agreements (RTAs)? Based on time-series evidence for a data set for 1950-92, this paper estimates and compares the growth performance of countries that liberalized broadly and those that joined an RTA. The comparisons show that economies grew faster after broad liberalization, both in the short and long run, but slower after participation in an RTA. Economies also had higher investment shares after broad liberalization, but lower ones after joining an RTA. The policy implications support broad liberalization.
Notes: Also published in Staff Papers, Vol. 46, No. 1, March 1999.
March 1, 1998
Achieving Stabilization in Armenia
Description: This paper examines the evolution, and impact on stabilization, of macroeconomic policies in Armenia during 1994-96. Fiscal and monetary policies have been effective in stabilizing the Armenian economy and facilitating significant growth, although they have not always worked in cohort. Seigniorage and the inflation tax declined dramatically as inflation fell, while dollarization was reversed but reached a plateau after mid-1995, affecting the demand for dram. The paper also presents quantitative indicators, which are suggestive of the trends discussed.
March 1, 1998
The Prudential Regulation and Management of Foreign Exchange Risk
Description: This paper examines issues in the prudential management and regulation of foreign exchange risk. It begins with measurement issues, notably converting foreign currency items into domestic currency terms, and calculating foreign exchange positions. The focus then shifts to managing foreign exchange risks. Although the key to effective management lies in the bank’s reporting and internal control systems, regulators frequently seek to limit such risks directly. This usually involves limiting the overall open position in terms of bank capital or requiring that capital be set aside against such risks.
March 1, 1998
Taxation and the Household Saving Rate: Evidence from OECD Countries
Description: This paper analyzes anew the relationship between taxation and the household saving rate. On the basis of standard savings and tax revenue data from, it provides compelling and robust empirical evidence of a powerful impact of taxes on household savings. In particular, income taxes are shown to affect negatively the household saving rate much more than consumption taxes.
March 1, 1998
Financial Infusion and Exiting from a Money Rule
Description: Money demand often surges after successful macroeconomic stabilization. This paper gives a name—financial infusion—to these surges because their size, unpredictability, and concurrence with other “success shocks” pose unique challenges to policy, especially under a money rule. An examination of 26 stabilization episodes shows that money to GDP can be expected to decline before stabilization and rise sharply thereafter. Analysis of the policy response to financial infusion under a money rule concludes that it amplifies output and price volatility, even if built into the rule. Finally, the main elements of an exit strategy from a money rule to an exchange rate or inflation target are discussed.
March 1, 1998
Parametric Distributional Flexibility and Conditional Variance Models with an Application to Hourly Exchange Rates
Description: This paper builds on the ARCH approach for modeling distributions with time-varying conditional variance by using the generalized Student t distribution. The distribution offers flexibility in modeling both leptokurtosis and asymmetry (characteristics seen in high-frequency financial time series data), nests the standard normal and Student t distributions, and is related to the Gram Charlier and mixture distributions. An empirical ARCH model based on this distribution is formulated and estimated using hourly exchange rate returns for four currencies. The generalized Student t is found to better model the empirical conditional and unconditional distributions than other distributional specifications.
March 1, 1998
Post Stabilization Inflation Dynamics in Slovenia
Description: This paper investigates the inflation process in Slovenia through an examination of some commonly used determinants of inflation in transition economies. Granger causality tests and an analysis of unrestricted VAR models suggest a strong linkage between both growth in broader monetary aggregates and changes in the tolar–deutsche mark exchange rate on retail price inflation. While the growth in wages affects inflation, it appears that both changes in the exchange rate and growth in monetary aggregates provide the initial impulse. A discussion of the present money–exchange rate policy framework and its influence on inflation is also provided.
March 1, 1998
Fiscal Sustainability with Non-Renewable Resources
Description: This paper assesses sustainable fiscal behavior in an economy where wealth is derived predominantly from a non-renewable resource. It explores the issue in a simple dynamic framework that highlights the structural weaknesses in the underlying budgetary position, takes into account the rate of depletion of a country’s natural resource base, and examines the impact of changes in a country’s terms of trade. An alternative indicator of fiscal sustainability is derived, and the principal factors determining sustainability are identified. The results of the analysis are applied to Venezuela and Kuwait.
March 1, 1998
The Nonmonetary Determinants of Inflation: A Panel Data Study
Description: This paper explains inflation performance in a sample of industrial and transition economies by looking at policymakers’ incentives to inflate the economy, and the perceived costs of disinflation. It finds a significant effect of fiscal deficits on inflation, particularly (but not exclusively) in countries where the government securities market is not well developed. Other factors with significant effect on inflation include relative price changes, central bank independence, the exchange rate regime, and the degree of price liberalization; there is only limited evidence that other structural factors, such as those influencing the natural rate of unemployment, have a significant effect on inflation.