Working Papers
1998
September 1, 1998
Explaining the Recent Behavior of Inflation and Unemployment in the United States
Description: Low rates of inflation have been recorded in recent years, despite a decline in the unemployment rate. This phenomenon could be the result of a series of transitory shocks or of a permanent change in the structure of the economy leading to a lower NAIRU. The paper suggests that, while the NAIRU may have fallen slightly, it has not fallen by an amount sufficient to explain the recent behavior of inflation. A leading explanation for recent inflation performance appears to be favorable price shocks; in particular, the cost of imports has fallen sharply as the dollar has appreciated.
September 1, 1998
Contagion: Monsoonal Effects, Spillovers, and Jumps Between Multiple Equilibria
Description: Several concepts of contagion are distinguished. It is argued that only models that admit of multiple equilibria are capable of producing true contagion. A simple balance of payments model is presented to illustrate that phenomenon, and some back-of-the-envelope calculations assess its relevance to the coincidence of emerging market crises in 1994–95 and in 1997.
September 1, 1998
Can the Neoclassical Model Explain the Distribution of Foreign Direct Investment Across Developing Countries?
Description: Since the beginning of the 1990s, foreign direct investment (FDI) in developing countries has increased dramatically. The distribution of FDI flows across these countries, however, is highly uneven; only a small number attract comparatively large amounts of foreign capital. This paper investigates whether the pattern of FDI flows can be explained by the standard neoclassical model or by modified versions of this model that allow for differences in production technologies across countries. The results suggest that the standard neoclassical approach is not particularly useful if we want to understand FDI flows to developing countries.
September 1, 1998
East Asian Growth Before and After the Crisis
Description: This paper surveys the literature on the growth performance of the east Asian economies in recent decades, evaluates the sustainability of that performance, and provides a preliminary assessment of their long-term growth prospects in the aftermath of the current crisis. It highlights three special aspects of east Asian growth: unusually high factor accumulation, a favorable demographic transition, and the impact of rapid growth on financial and other institutions. The paper argues that there are downside risks to the east Asian “developmental state” model, despite its favorable attributes, and that an alternative model may become more attractive as these economies mature.
September 1, 1998
Is the United States CPI Biased Across Income and Age Groups?
Description: The recent Boskin Commission Report (1996) underscores a significant upward bias in CPI measurement in the United States. This may result in excessive cost-of-living adjustment (COLA) of some entitlements in the federal budget because COLA is indexed to CPI. This paper presents some evidence that overall CPI may be biased against lower income elderly households, the primary beneficiaries of COLA. Although a downward adjustment in CPI resulting in an across-the-board cut in COLA of entitlements may yield significant budgetary savings, it may result in a deterioration in income distribution against lower income elderly households.
September 1, 1998
Tax Revenue in Sub-Saharan Africa: Effects of Economic Policies and Corruption
Description: An analysis of data for 39 sub-Saharan African countries during 1985–96 indicates that the variations in tax revenue-GDP ratios within this group are influenced by economic policies and the level of corruption. Namely, these ratios rise with declining inflation, implementation of structural reforms, rising human capital (a proxy for the provision of public services by the government), and declining corruption. The paper confirms that the tax revenue ratio rises with income, and that elements of a country’s tax base (such as the share of agriculture in GDP and the degree of openness) influence tax revenue.
September 1, 1998
The Role of Allocation in a Globalized Corporate Income Tax
Description: The internationalization of business activity has created significant pressures on national corporate tax systems. Rather than abandon the corporate tax field, this paper predicts that governments will develop arrangements to further globalize the corporate income tax. The paper assesses the merits and limitations of allocation methods for attributing income to different jurisdictions according to formulas measuring business activity. Such methods are being used as part of transfer pricing regimes and are likely to be enhanced over time. Whatever international arrangements develop in the future, there is a role for new institutions to improve cooperative discussions among governments.
September 1, 1998
Output Decline and Recovery in Uzbekistan: Past Performance and Future Prospects
Description: What explains Uzbekistan’s unusually mild “transformational recession” and its moderate recovery during 1996-97? We examine potential biases in output measurement, the role of “special factors”—including initial production structure, natural resources, and public investment policies—and sectoral output developments. The main findings are (i) Uzbekistan’s relatively favorable output record is not an artifact of measurement alone; (ii) public investment has had no significant effects on growth; (iii) the mildness of Uzbekistan’s transitional recession can be accounted for by its favorable initial production structure and its self-sufficiency in energy; (iv) unless reforms are significantly accelerated, medium-term growth prospects are mediocre.
September 1, 1998
Increasing Dependency Ratios, Pensions, and Tax Smoothing
Description: The implication of increasing dependency ratios for pay-as-you-go, defined-benefit pension programs are examined. Modifications aimed at smoothing contributions while maintaining benefits intact are analyzed for both open and closed economies.
September 1, 1998
Financial Crisis and Credit Crunch as a Result of Inefficient Financial Intermediation—with Reference to the Asian Financial Crisis
Description: This paper develops a model of private debt financing under inefficient financial intermediation. It suggests a mechanism that can generate the following sequence of events observed in the recent Asian crisis: A period of relatively low capital flow despite a steady improvement in economic fundamentals (capital inflow inertia), followed by a fast buildup of capital inflow, and ended with a large capital outflow and domestic credit crunch. Unlike other models requiring large movements in fundamentals or asset prices to explain a financial crisis, this model can exhibit large credit/capital flow swings with moderate changes in the economic and market environment.