Working Papers
January 1, 0001
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2000
January 1, 2000
Devaluation Expectations and the Stock Market: The Case of Mexico in 1994/95
Description: Using company-level data, this paper examines the relative stock-market performance of firms with different foreign-exchange exposures around the time of the 1994/95 Mexican crisis. Contrary to what one might have expected given the alleged peso overvaluation, exporting firms outperformed the market beginning in late 1993. Although interest rates fail to show a clear confidence loss in the exchange rate regime, the relative performance of net exporters suggests that expectations of devaluation increased continuously. The methodology presented is relevant beyond the Mexican case: sectoral differences in stock market performance may constitute valuable leading indicators of exchange rate changes in emerging markets.
January 1, 2000
Shadow Economies Around the World: Size, Causes, and Consequences
Description: This paper presents estimates of the size of the shadow economy in 76 developing, transition, and OECD countries, which are derived by combining figures from different estimation methods. We describe and discuss the strengths and weaknesses of the different estimation methods. We find that the growth of the shadow economy—which is now remarkably large in the 76 countries—is strongly related to increasing burdens of taxation and social security contributions, as well as to the extent of state regulatory activities. Rising corruption also has a clearly positive impact on the growth of the shadow economy.
January 1, 2000
A Framework for Price Statistics
Description: This paper describes the primary framework associating the four principal price indices in the system of economic statistics—the Producer Price Index (PPI), the Consumer Price Index (CPI), and the Export and Import Price Indices (XPI and MPI)—with the macroeconomic value aggregates they decompose into price and volume components. The paper begins by defining the basic algebra of price indices. It then discusses the definition of the value aggregates comprising the goods and services components of the System of National Accounts 1993 (1993 SNA). The paper concludes by briefly considering purchasing power parities and labor compensation indices.
January 1, 2000
The Unbearable Stability of the German Wage Structure: Evidence and Interpretation
Description: This paper uses micro data from the German Socio-Economic Panel to document that the wage structure in West Germany was remarkably stable during 1984-97, with little variation over time in wage or earnings inequality between and within different skill groups. Empirical evidence suggests that this stability is attributable to institutional factors rather than market forces. The rigidity of relative wages, despite relative shifts in labor demand that favor skilled workers, has resulted in sharp declines in employment rates for unskilled workers. The microeconomic evidence is shown to have important implications for interpreting trends in wage shares, capital-labor ratios, and aggregate unemployment.
January 1, 2000
The Role of Human Capital in Economic Growth: The Case of Spain
Description: This study constructs an index of human capital for the Spanish labor force over the past two decades and projects it over the next decade on the basis of likely demographic developments. The methodology considers both educational attainment resulting from formal schooling and improvements in workers’ productivity resulting from experience, or “learning by doing.” Furthermore, it allows for the fact that people with higher education accumulate human capital through learning by doing at a faster pace than less educated workers or, in other words, that the full returns to formal schooling are realized with a lag of many years. Using this index, a growth accounting exercise is conducted to estimate the impact of human capital accumulation on economic growth over the past two decades. Finally, potential output growth is projected over the next few years, taking into account the impact of human capital accumulation.
January 1, 2000
The Japanese Banking Crisis of the 1990's: Sources and Lessons
Description: For a large part of the past decade, Japan has witnessed a steady deterioration in the health of its banking system. This paper examines what went wrong and why it has taken so long for the system to recover. While the paper traces the roots of the crisis to accelerated deregulation and deepening of capital markets without an appropriate adjustment in the regulatory framework, it identifies weak corporate governance and regulatory forbearance as the two factors behind what might have been an unnecessary prolongation of the distress of the financial system.
January 1, 2000
Does Deposit Insurance Increase Banking System Stability?
Description: This study analyzes panel data for 61 countries during 1980–97 and concludes that explicit deposit insurance tends to be detrimental to bank stability, the more so where bank interest rates are deregulated and the institutional environment is weak. Also, the adverse impact of deposit insurance on bank stability tends to be stronger when the coverage offered to depositors is extensive, when the scheme is funded, and when it is run by the government rather than by the private sector.
January 1, 2000
Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles: Evidence From Hong Kong SAR
Description: This paper examines the determinants of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR during 1980–98. It uses time-series analysis techniques to characterize price developments, establish empirical regularities, and provide measures of the deviations of actual price changes from “trend.” The analysis suggests that at the peak of the boom, in mid-1997, the level of property prices may have been 40–45 percent above levels suggested by developments in “fundamentals.” The analysis highlights the role of demand-side factors, and the data are not inconsistent with the notion that the property market may be subject to speculative bubbles.
January 1, 2000
Improving Governance and Fighting Corruption in the Baltic and CIS Countries: The Role of the IMF
Description: This paper examines the indirect role the IMF plays in combating corruption in the Baltic and CIS countries by promoting structural reforms that help improve economic governance and thus reduce opportunities for rent-seeking behavior. The analysis draws on examples of actual experience with corruption and outlines some of the structural measures under IMF-supported arrangements, which, if successfully implemented, can be expected to help gradually alleviate corruption. It also summarizes IMF-wide initiatives under way to strengthen public sector transparency and accountability, and highlights the key structural areas likely to receive emphasis in the IMF’s future policy advice to countries in the region.