Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles: Evidence From Hong Kong SAR

January 1, 2000

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Format: Chicago

Christoph Duenwald. Property Prices and Speculative Bubbles: Evidence From Hong Kong SAR, (USA: International Monetary Fund, 2000) accessed December 21, 2024

Disclaimer: This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF.The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate

Summary

This paper examines the determinants of residential property prices in Hong Kong SAR during 1980–98. It uses time-series analysis techniques to characterize price developments, establish empirical regularities, and provide measures of the deviations of actual price changes from “trend.” The analysis suggests that at the peak of the boom, in mid-1997, the level of property prices may have been 40–45 percent above levels suggested by developments in “fundamentals.” The analysis highlights the role of demand-side factors, and the data are not inconsistent with the notion that the property market may be subject to speculative bubbles.

Subject: Asset bubbles, Asset prices, Financial crises, Housing, Housing prices, Land prices, National accounts, Prices

Keywords: Asset bubbles, Asset prices, Bubble burster, Construction cost variable, Global, HKSAR government, HKSAR property market, Hong Kong SAR, Housing, Housing prices, Land prices, Price, Price change, Price fluctuation, Property market, Property price, Property price change, Property prices, Real estate, Real property price, Rental price, Sample period, Speculative bubbles, WP

Publication Details

Pages:

29
Volume:

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DOI:

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Issue:

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Series:

Working Paper No. 2000/002
Stock No:

WPIEA0022000
ISBN:

9781451841756
ISSN:

1018-5941

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