Working Papers
2000
December 1, 2000
The U.K. Business Cycle, Monetary Policy, and EMU Entry
Description: In the context of the U.K. government’s EMU entry condition of cyclical convergence, this paper (i) provides further evidence suggesting that historically the U.K.’s business cycle has been more volatile than, and relatively independent of, the cycles in the euro-area countries; and (ii) identifies, using a small VAR model, a relatively significant role for monetary policy in explaining these differences. A simulation exercise suggests that if the U.K. interest rates had been more closely aligned with those in the euro area in the 1990s (as they would be if the United Kingdom were to join EMU), output growth might have been less volatile and more correlated with that in the euro area, but inflationary pressures might have persisted.
December 1, 2000
Financial Development and Economic Growth: An Overview
Description: In recent years there has been substantial theoretical and empirical work on the role that financial markets play in fostering economic growth and development. This paper provides a selective review of the literature, as well as new empirical evidence on the relationship between financial development and economic growth for a large cross-section sample of countries. While the results indicate that the effect of financial development on growth is positive, the size of the effect varies with different indicators of financial development, estimation method, data frequency, and the functional form of the relationship.
December 1, 2000
Will the Emergence of the Euro Affect World Commodity Prices?
Description: This study provides evidence that episodes of internal stability of exchange rates among the 11 Euro countries during 1957-98 were associated with periods of lower real commodity price volatility. These stabilizing effects are statistically significant for fertilizer, metals, petroleum, and cereals. A reasonable inference, therefore, is that the establishment of the Euro on January 1, 1999, should be expected to contribute to reduced volatility of world commodity prices, other things equal, although the impacts are likely to be modest.
December 1, 2000
Day-To-Day Monetary Policy and the Volatility of the Federal Funds Interest Rate
Description: We propose a model of the interbank money market with an explicit role for central bank intervention and periodic reserve requirements, and study the interaction of profit-maximizing banks with a central bank targeting interest rates at high frequency. The model yields predictions on biweekly patterns of the federal funds rate’s volatility and on its response to changes in target rates and in intervention procedures, such as those implemented by the Federal Reserve in 1994. Theoretical results are consistent with empirical patterns of interest rate volatility in the U.S. market for federal funds.
December 1, 2000
Comprehensive Measures of GDP and the Unrecorded Economy
Description: Comprehensive coverage of national accounts estimates is important; however, it is often thwarted by gaps in the recording of economic activity – the so-called “unrecorded economy”. This paper sets out pragmatic statistical approaches for incorporating the unrecorded economy in the national accounts. It describes sources and methods to capture the unrecorded economy and discusses specific issues that arise from the use of indirect sources and techniques. Furthermore, the paper elaborates approaches for collecting data on the unrecorded economy, particularly on economic activities of the household sector.
December 1, 2000
Cooption and Repression in the Soviet Union
Description: The Soviet ruling elite, the nomenklatura, used both cooption and political repression to encourage loyalty to the communist regime. Loyalty was critical both in defusing internal opposition to the rule of the nomenklatura and in either deterring or defeating foreign enemies of the Soviet Union. We assume that the nomenklatura determined the extent of cooption and the intensity of political repression by equating their perceived marginal benefits and marginal costs. We use this assumption to construct an account of the historical evolution of policies of cooption and political repression in the Soviet Union.
December 1, 2000
Dual Currency Boards: A Proposal for Currency Stability
Description: This paper shows that extending the convertibility guarantee of the traditional currency board to a second reserve currency brings about an automatic, market-driven change of the peg when the initial reserve currency appreciates beyond a specified level. The “dual” currency board thus maintains the advantages of a hard peg, but avoids the economic difficulties associated with the link to an overvalued reserve currency. As an added benefit, the system has the potential to promote global currency stability, with the reserves of the dual currency board country acting as a buffer stock to the exchange cross-rate of the chosen reserve currencies.
December 1, 2000
A Panic-Prone Pack? the Behavior of Emerging Market Mutual Funds
Description: This paper explores the behavior of emerging market mutual funds using a novel database covering the holdings of individual funds over the period January 1996 to March 1999. An examination of individual crises shows that, on average, funds withdrew money one month prior to the events. The degree of herding among funds is statistically significant, but moderate. Herding is more widespread among open-ended funds than among closed-end funds, but not more prevalent during crises than during tranquil times. Funds tend to follow momentum strategies, selling past losers and buying past winners, but their overall behavior is more complex than often suggested.
December 1, 2000
External Debt Management in Low-Income Countries
Description: Improving debt management capacity in Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPCs) is a key element of the international community’s strategy for ensuring a robust and sustained exit from unsustainable debt burdens. External debt management is a multi-facetted task involving the formulation of a transparent strategy for managing the level of debt, and establishing an appropriate institutional framework that supports effective implementation. This paper brings together the essential elements of effective debt management practices to guide for those assessing debt management capacity and advising on its improvement in low-income countries.
December 1, 2000
The Inverted Fisher Hypothesis: Inflation Forecastability and Asset Substitution"
Description: This paper examines the implications of inflation persistence for the inverted Fisher hypothesis that nominal interest rates do not adjust to inflation because of a high degree of substitutability between money and bonds. It is emphasized that the substitutability between nominal assets and capital renders the hypothesis inconsistent with the data when inflation persistence is high. Using a switching regression model, the analysis allows the reflection of inflation in interest rates to vary according to the degree of inflation persistence or forecastability. The hypothesis is supported by U.S. data only when inflation forecastability is below a certain threshold.