Working Papers
2002
February 1, 2002
Columbia or High School? Understanding the Roles of Education in Development
Description: No country has achieved sustained economic development without investment in education. Thus, education policy can play a vital role in facilitating development. But which types of schooling-secondary or tertiary-should public policy promote? This paper develops an analytical framework to address this question. It shows how the composition of human capital stock determines a country's development. Hence, promoting the "wrong" type of schooling can have little effect on development. In addition to identifying some characteristics of an optimal education policy, the paper helps in understanding why empirical studies have failed to find a significant relationship between schooling and growth.
February 1, 2002
Purchasing Power Parity and New Trade Theory
Description: This paper theoretically derives and empirically tests the implications of a new trade theory framework for the systematic movements in the real exchange rate. It focuses on the effect of imperfect substitutability of tradables and on the importance of competitiveness, for which we construct an original proxy. Using a panel dynamic OLS estimation of nine bilateral US dollar real exchange rates, we derive long-run coefficients for relative productivity and competitiveness in the tradable and non-tradable sectors, controlling for standard macroeconomic variables. The implications of imperfect substitutability of tradables fit the data better than the standard neoclassical assumption of price equalization. Our new measure of competitiveness is statistically significant in explaining deviations from PPP.
February 1, 2002
A Model of Multiple Equilibria in Geographic Labor Mobility
Description: We develop a model of double matching in the labor market and the social environment in order to explain different migration patterns in response to local economic shocks. This approach explains the different behaviors of workers in different groups, regions, or countries in an endogenous way by showing the existence of multiple equilibria, rather than in an exogenous manner by introducing ex-ante regulations or unemployment benefits. This model can also explain why individuals from some communities form ‘sister’ communities in some cases and not in others.
February 1, 2002
Commodity Currencies and Empirical Exchange Rate Puzzles
Description: This paper re-examines empirical exchange rate puzzles by focusing on three OECD economies (Australia, Canada, and New Zealand) where primary commodities constitute a significant share of their exports. For Australia and New Zealand especially, we find that the U.S. dollar price of their commodity exports (generally exogenous to these small economies) —has a strong and stable influence on their floating real rates, with the quantitative magnitude of the effects consistent with predictions of standard theoretical models. However, after controlling for commodity price shocks, there is still a PPP puzzle in the residual. Nevertheless, the results here are relevant to many developing country commodity exporters, as they liberalize their capital markets and move towards floating exchange rates.
February 1, 2002
The Output Decline in Asian Crisis Countries: Investment Aspects
Description: This paper examines whether capital outflows may have contributed to output declines during the Asian Crisis by reducing the financing available for domestic investment. Panel data regressions suggest a positive, short-term relationship between net capital inflows and investment during the period before 1997 in five Asian countries once real net capital flows are netted out from real flows of private bank credit. In addition, net real private inflows and real private investment appear to have been cointegrated in at least three of these countries, suggesting a long-term relationship as well.
February 1, 2002
Why is Unemployment High in the Philippines?
Description: Unemployment has remained high in the Philippines, at almost twice the level of neighboring countries, despite relatively fast employment growth in the past decade. Employment growth was not sufficient to reduce unemployment because of rapid population growth and increased labor force participation. This paper shows that Philippine employment growth and unemployment declines were positively correlated with real GDP growth and, to a lesser extent, negatively with the real minimum wage. The key policy implications are that higher economic growth and moderation of increases in the real minimum wage are required to reduce unemployment.
February 1, 2002
Budget System Reform in Transitional Economies: The Experience of Russia
Description: This paper stresses the role of budget system reform in economies in transition as an essential basis for the implementation of effective fiscal policies. However, introducing such structural reforms in often unstable economic environments has not proved easy. Using Russia as a case study, the magnitude of the problems faced is documented, and the strategy of reform eventually adopted is critically reviewed. In conclusion, some lessons are drawn for other transitional countries undertaking similar reforms, and the future agenda for completing these reforms in Russia is indicated.
February 1, 2002
The New Russian Budget System: A Critical Assessment and Future Reform Agenda
Description: This paper documents the main elements of the new budget system established in the Russian Federation through its revised budget system law, or the Budget Code, of 2000. It critically examines the budget preparation, budget approval, and budget execution processes, as well as the financial management and planning procedures that underlie the Budget Code. Based on this analysis, recent developments are discussed and a future reform agenda is indicated.
February 1, 2002
A New Rule: The Swiss Debt Brake
Description: The paper provides an international comparison and a comprehensive analysis of a new fiscal expenditure rule for the federal government in Switzerland. The proposed rule has two innovative features: it aims at a structurally balanced budget in the short-run by annually setting a cyclically adjusted expenditure ceiling, and it arrests the accumulation of public debt via corrections of future expenditure targets for past deviations from projected fiscal balances. The paper finds that the new rule is likely to reduce procyclical tendencies in fiscal policy and that its objectives are adequate in meeting long-run fiscal challenges arising from demographic changes.
February 1, 2002
The Role of Affordable Mortgages in Improving Living Standards and Stimulating Growth: A Survey of Selected Mena Countries
Description: This paper argues that making affordable home mortgage loans available to a large cross section of the population will serve both the redistributive and growth-enhancing objectives of poverty reduction policies. The current state of housing and mortgage markets in selected Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries (Algeria, Egypt, Jordan, Morocco, and Tunisia) is examined. The study evaluates Turkey and Mexico as middle-income comparator countries. Historical experience of the United States is also described. Simulations based on U.S. parameters provide some guide to the effects on economic growth of alleviating housing shortages by improving access to mortgage financing.