Working Papers
2002
August 1, 2002
International Financial Integration and Economic Growth
Description: This paper uses new data and new econometric techniques to investigate the impact of international financial integration on economic growth and also to assess whether this relationship depends on the level of economic development, financial development, legal system development, government corruption, and macroeconomic policies. Using a wide array of measures of international financial integration on 57 countries and an assortment of statistical methodologies, we are unable to reject the hypothesis that international financial integration does not accelerate economic growth even when controlling for particular economic, financial, institutional, and policy characteristics.
August 1, 2002
Spreading Currency Crises: The Role of Economic Interdependence
Description: We analyze in this paper how the mutual dependence of private sector expectations in different countries on one another influences the stability of fixed exchange rate regimes. The crisis probabilities of countries trading with one another are interdependent because wage setters react to an imminent loss of international competitiveness stemming from an increase in the crisis probability of a trading partner. If a currency crisis in one country is perceived to be increasingly likely, the probability of devaluation of its trading partners’ currencies to restore their international competitiveness rises as well. Thus, not only actual devaluations but also an increasing crisis probability may trigger currency crises elsewhere. We show that not only fundamental weaknesses but also spontaneous shifts in market sentiment may play a role in precipitating currency crises.
August 1, 2002
Wage Centralization, Union Bargaining, and Macroeconomic Performance
Description: This paper addresses two questions. First, under what circumstances will a centralized wage-bargaining system offer higher output and employment than a decentralized system? Second, what is the relationship between the degree of wage centralization and inflation? The paper argues that centralized wage setting may offer worse outcomes, despite the existence of a negative coordination externality in decentralized wage setting. This is more likely to occur when the legal and institutional environment strengthens the bargaining position of the union in the centralized regime compared with unions operating in a more decentralized regime. Furthermore, as product markets become more competitive, the macroeconomic outcomes in both regimes converge, and the degree of wage centralization becomes irrelevant.
August 1, 2002
Liability Dollarization and the Bank Balance Sheet Channel
Description: Banks in developing economies often face a mismatch in the currency denomination of their liabilities (foreign currency denominated debt) and assets (domestic currency loans to domestic borrowers). We study the effect of this mismatch on business cycles and monetary policy in a sticky-price, dynamic general equilibrium model of a small open economy. We find from the model analysis that a fixed exchange rate rule that stabilizes the balance sheets of banks offers greater stability than an interest rate rule that targets inflation in the sticky-price sector of the economy.
August 1, 2002
Issues in Domestic Petroleum Pricing in Oil-Producing Countries
Description: This paper discusses issues relating to the domestic pricing of petroleum in oil-producing countries. It finds that in most major oil-exporting countries, government policies keep domestic prices below free-market levels, resulting in implicit subsidies that equaled 3.0 percent of GDP, on average, in 1999. Moreover, the paper argues, these petroleum subsidies are inefficient and inequitable-entailing substantial opportunity costs in terms of forgone revenue or productive spending-and also procyclical, complicating macroeconomic management. Nonetheless, the elimination of petroleum subsidies is often politically difficult, although countervailing measures and publicity campaigns can help engender support for reform.
August 1, 2002
Indonesia: Managing Decentralization
Description: The process of decentralization in Indonesia was initiated after a long period of autocratic rule. Despite the political imperatives, there is a need to carefully sequence the fiscal decentralization to ensure that financing follows the assignment of functions. The functions should be commensurate with the capacity to provide public services. The paper argues for the proper sequencing to avoid jeopardizing macroeconomic stability or the effective delivery of public services.
August 1, 2002
Regional Labor Market Disparities in Belgium
Description: Regional labor market discrepancies have been widening in Belgium in the last two decades and are more evident within particular demographic groups. These developments can largely be accounted for by worse matching of people to jobs in the high-unemployment provinces. Using a structural VAR, it is also shown that labor market dynamics in Belgium produce a strong attenuating effect on employment growth, in contrast to the United States where initial labor demand shocks are expanded in the long run. After the short-run adjustment is over, there is less labor migration in Belgium than in the United States or Europe, corroborating the perception that Belgians move "too little."
August 1, 2002
Treasury Reform in Kazakhstan: Lessons for Other Countries
Description: Kazakhstan’s government has established a comprehensive and efficient treasury system for government revenues and expenditures, and introduced a state-of-the-art government financial management information system. Kazakhstan is among the leading BRO (Baltics, Russia, and other Former Soviet Union) countries in modernizing its budget execution system despite remaining challenges in other areas of fiscal management. The successful outcomes are related partly to the high quality of the reform process, and partly to the institutional design of the Kazakh treasury. Some design features are common for most well-functioning treasuries. Other features are related to the specific economic factors, institutional features, and financial management objectives of a transition economy, with a strong emphasis on fiscal control and financial discipline.
August 1, 2002
Intergovernmental Grants Systems and Management: Applications of a General Framework to Indonesia
Description: Intergovernmental equalization grants have been described as “the glue that holds a nation together.” Getting the grants system right is critical to countries as they decentralize. This paper illustrates general principles with an example based on Indonesia in 2000. A general grant should be used to supplement own revenues and to finance local service provision where there are no central mandates. The special needs of backward regions would be better provided for by specific grants. Specific grants need to be taken into account in the general grants scheme.
August 1, 2002
Lithuania: History and Future of the Currency Board Arrangement
Description: The paper examines the evolution of the institutional setup of Lithuania's Currency Board Arrangement (CBA) and competitiveness from 1994 through 2001, with a view to determining the resilience of the Lithuanian CBA to external shocks in 2002-03. First, several indicators of competitiveness are analyzed in the context of productivity gains and flexibility of the labor market and prices are considered. Then, the equilibrium exchange rate and misalignments of the actual rate from it are estimated in a cointegration framework. The paper concludes that, under current policies, the CBA would be able to cope with sizable external shocks during 2002-03 provided supporting policies remain in place.