Working Papers
2007
February 1, 2007
Tax Reform and Debt Sustainability in Germany: An Assessment Using the Global Fiscal Model
Description: In 2005, the German government announced a far-reaching fiscal adjustment program. This paper uses the IMF’s Global Fiscal Model to study its impact and explores options for addressing long-term pressures from population aging. The growth effects of the planned VAT increase are likely modest, largely owing to the stimulating effect of other tax reductions. The reform will improve the long-term debt path but achieving fiscal sustainability requires further adjustment over the medium term. An additional package of expenditure restraint, entitlement reform, and tax-base broadening compares favorably to other adjustment options. Spillover effects to trading partners of these policies are modest.
February 1, 2007
Colonial Origins, Institutions and Economic Performance in the Caribbean: Guyana and Barbados
Description: The countries that were once British colonies in the Caribbean share a common language and a colonial history of slavery, dominance of a plantation-based sugar industry, and broadly similar government and administrative traditions. Following independence in the late-1960s economic strategies and performance across the region diverged. However, by the end of the 1980s, in the face of economic collapse Guyana had abandoned its strategy of "cooperative socialism", and its economic policies converged with those generally supported by the IMF and World Bank. Despite this policy convergence and shared colonial origins, economic performance and social indicators in Guyana and Barbados have continued to diverge. The paper explores some of the origins of this divergence, and, in particular, the deep seated factors that derive from the countries' history, geography, and demographics. In Guyana, while the focus on sound macroeconomic policies and donor support has been important, the most pressing requirement for sustained progress is to strengthen domestic institutions and build consensus on the country's future direction.
February 1, 2007
Give Trust a Chance—A Model of Trust in the Context of an IMF-Supported Program
Description: This paper is an attempt to identify the determinants of trust between country authorities and IMF staff in the context of an IMF-supported program. Using an outcomes-based definition of trust, a game-theoretic model is developed to compute the level of trust between the two parties. The results and the analysis of trust-related issues emerging in a program context suggest that trust between country authorities and IMF staff exerts a positive impact on the likelihood of program success through its ability to improve the quality of the design, the efficiency of negotiation, and the effectiveness of implementation of an IMF-supported program. Some initiatives to secure such benefits and enhance trust in staff are proposed.
February 1, 2007
Inflation in Poland: How Much Can Globalization Explain?
Description: This paper analyses how globalization has affected inflation in the New EU Members States (NMS), and Poland in particular, since 1995. It finds prices have become less sensitive to domestic economic conditions as trade integration rose, possibly because monetary policy incentives increasingly shifted toward meeting price stability objectives. Quantitatively, globalization appears to have lowered Polish prices by ½ to 1 percentage point annually since 1995, substantially more than in advanced economies. However, future inflation-dampening effects in the NMS are likely to be smaller as the pace of increases in trade openness moderates.
February 1, 2007
Strategies for Fiscal Consolidation in Japan
Description: Japan's key fiscal challenge is to put public finances on a more sustainable footing. This paper investigates the macroeconomic implications of alternative fiscal strategies for Japan using the IMF's Global Fiscal Model. The results suggest that: (i) an adjustment package that achieves primary balance through lower social transfers and government spending and a higher VAT is the most viable option and has a smaller negative impact on growth than other fiscal measures; (ii) achieving primary balance is not sufficient to stabilize the net debt ratio; (iii) prefunding future aging costs provides greater long-term benefits compared with less front-loaded strategies; (iv) tax reform involving shifting from corporate taxation to consumption taxation could mitigate the short-term output losses associated with fiscal consolidation; and (v) the spillovers to the rest of the world from consolidation in Japan are positive in the medium term, but modest.
February 1, 2007
Exchange Rate Policy and Liability Dollarization: An Empirical Study
Description: The paper identifies the contemporaneous relationship between exchange rate policy and liability dollarization using three different definitions of dollarization. The presence of endogeneity makes the empirical identification elusive. We use identification through heteroskedasticity to solve the endogeneity problem in the present context (Rigobon, 2003). While we find that countries with high liability dollarization (external, public, or financial) tend to be more actively involved in exchange rate stabilization operations, we do not find evidence that floating, by itself, promotes de-dollarization.
February 1, 2007
Precautionary Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Description: This paper explains why the debt reduction motive for countries that are subject to borrowing constraints and a volatile environment is greater than for those with a more stable environment and relatively better access to the financial markets. In particular, it shows that the possibility of losing the ability to borrow in the future induces precautionary debt reduction. When a government loses its ability to borrow, shocks are more costly to the economy, since they cannot be spread over time. The precautionary motive arises from the need to make these adjustments less painful when the borrowing constraints bind. To avoid large losses in the constrained period, the government prefers to raise taxes and inflation in earlier periods more than would be implied otherwise, leaving less debt to the future periods, and thereby shifting some of the required adjustment to the earlier periods. In other words, the coexistence of large shocks and borrowing constraints forces the government to be more prudent in its management of debt.
February 1, 2007
What Explains Germany’s Rebounding Export Market Share?
Description: Germany's export market share increased since 2000, while most industrial countries experienced declines. This study explores four explanations and evaluates their empirical contributions: (i) improved cost competitiveness, (ii) ties to fast growing trading partners, (iii) increased demand for capital goods, and (iv) regionalized production of goods (e.g. offshoring). An export model is estimated covering the period 1993-2005. The dominant factors explaining the increase in market share are trade relationships with fast growing countries and regionalized production in the export sector. Improved cost competitiveness had a comparatively smaller impact. There is no conclusive evidence of increased demand for capital goods.
February 1, 2007
Safta: Living in a World of Regional Trade Agreements
Description: The paper evaluates the South Asia Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA) within the global structure of overlapping regional trade agreements (RTAs) using a modified gravity equation. First, it examines the effects of the Trade Liberalization Program which started in 2006. SAFTA would have a minor effect on regional trade flows and the impact on custom duties would be a manageable fiscal shock for most members. Second, the paper ranks the trade effects of other potential RTAs for individual South Asian countries and SAFTA: RTAs with North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the European Union (EU) dominate one with the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN).
January 1, 2007
Das (Wasted) Kapital: Firm Ownership and Investment Efficiency in China
Description: Based on a survey that we designed and that covers a stratified random sample of 12,400 firms in 120 cities in China with firm-level accounting information for 2002-2004, this paper examines the presence of systematic distortions in capital allocation that result in uneven marginal returns to capital across firm ownership, regions, and sectors. It provides a systematic comparison of investment efficiency among wholly and partially state-owned, wholly and partially foreignowned, and domestic privately owned firms, conditioning on their sector, location, and size characteristics. It finds that even after a quarter-of-century of reforms, state-owned firms still have significantly lower returns to capital, on average, than domestic private or foreign-owned firms. Similarly, certain regions and sectors have consistently lower returns to capital than other regions and sectors. By our calculation, if China succeeds in allocating its capital more efficiently, it could reduce its investment intensity by 5 percent of GDP without sacrificing its economic growth (and hence deliver a greater improvement to its citizens' living standard).