Working Papers
2011
April 1, 2011
Monetary Policy Transmission Mechanisms in Pacific Island Countries
Description: During the global financial crisis, central banks in Pacific island countries eased monetary policy to stimulate economic activity. Judging by the ensuing movements in commercial bank interest rates and private sector credit, monetary policy transmission appears to be weak. This is confirmed by an empirical examination of interest rate pass-through and credit growth. Weak credit demand and underdeveloped financial markets seem to have limited the effectiveness of monetary policy, but the inflexibility of exchange rates and rising real interest rates have also served to frustrate the central banks’ efforts despite a supporting fiscal policy. While highlighting the importance of developing domestic financial markets in the long run, this experience also points to the need to coordinate macroeconomic policies and to use all macroeconomic tools available in conducting countercyclical policies, including exchange rate flexibility.
April 1, 2011
The Tax Elasticity of Corporate Debt: A Synthesis of Size and Variations
Description: Although the empirical literature has long struggled to identify the impact of taxes on corporate financial structure, a recent boom in studies offers ample support for the debt bias of taxation. Yet, studies differ considerably in effect size and reveal an equally large variety in methodologies and specifications. This paper sheds light on this variation and assesses the systematic impact on the size of the effects. We find that, typically, a one percentage point higher tax rate increases the debt-asset ratio by between 0.17 and 0.28. Responses are increasing over time, which suggests that debt bias distortions have become more important.
April 1, 2011
Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress: A Proposed Set of Indicators
Description: This paper proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011). These indicators provide early warning signals about the manifestation of these risks, giving policymakers the opportunity to adjust policies before extreme fiscal stress events. Two aggregate indices are calculated: an index of fiscal vulnerability and an index of fiscal stress. Results show that both indices are elevated for advanced economies, reflecting unfavorable medium-term debt dynamics and aging-related spending pressures. In emerging economies, solvency risks are lower, but the composition of public debt remains a source of risk and the fiscal position is weaker than before the crisis.
April 1, 2011
France: Lessons from Past Fiscal Consolidation Plans
Description: This paper analyzes past fiscal consolidation plans and their outcomes in France. It covers the early attempts at fiscal consolidation in the 1970s and the 1980s (Plan Barre and Virage de la Rigueur), the first episode of medium-term fiscal consolidation in 1994-97 ahead of joining the European Economic and Monetary Union, and the fiscal consolidation under the corrective arm of the European Stability and Growth Pact in 2003-07. These experiences offer important lessons for the future, suggesting that binding constraints help focus policymakers’ attention and justify their actions; spending restraint needs to be shared and coordinated across all levels of government; and appropriate deficit targets could help in enforcing budgetary discipline in good times.
April 1, 2011
Corporate and Household Debt Distress in Latvia: Strengthening the Incentives for Market-Based Approach to Debt Resolution
Description: This paper reviews Latvia’s efforts to manage the increase in debt distress resulting from the unwinding of the 2000-07 credit boom and spillovers from the global financial crisis. The authorities have designed a strategy that strengthens incentives for marked-based debt resolution by improving the legal framework for credit enforcement, introducing tax incentives for debt write-downs, and strengthening financial sector supervision. These measures have started to yield results, but further steps are needed to speed up bankruptcy procedures and reduce credit enforcement costs. Latvia’s experience with market-based debt resolution may provide insights on managing debt distress in other countries with limited fiscal resources.
April 1, 2011
Next Generation Balance Sheet Stress Testing
Description: This paper presents a "second-generation" solvency stress testing framework extending applied stress testing work centered on Cihák (2007). The framework seeks enriching stress tests in terms of risk-sensitivity, while keeping them flexible, transparent, and user-friendly. The main contributions include (a) increasing the risk-sensitivity of stress testing by capturing changes in risk-weighted assets (RWAs) under stress, including for non-internal ratings based (IRB) banks (through a quasi-IRB approach); (b) providing stress testers with a comprehensive platform to use satellite models, and to define various assumptions and scenarios; (c) allowing stress testers to run multi-year scenarios (up to five years) for hundreds of banks, depending on the availability of data. The framework uses balance sheet data and is Excel-based with detailed guidance and documentation.
April 1, 2011
Evidence on Productivity, Comparative Advantage, and Networks in the Export Performance of Firms
Description: This paper tests the effect of comparative advantage, size, and networking on the firm probability of exporting. The closest theoretical framework is the one of Bernard, Redding, and Schott (2007), with firm heterogeneity across countries and industries. We use a recently assembled multi-country multi-industry firm level dataset, and construct original measures of comparative advantage. The results show that firms are more likely to export if they belong to the comparative advantage industry, if they enjoy a higher productivity, or if they benefit from foreign, domestic, or communication networks.
April 1, 2011
Probabilities of Default and the Market Price of Risk in a Distressed Economy
Description: We propose an original method to estimate the market price of risk under stress, which is needed to correct for risk aversion the CDS-implied probabilities of distress. The method is based, for simplicity, on a one-factor asset pricing model. The market price of risk under stress (the expectation of the market price of risk, conditional on it exceeding a certain threshold) is computed from the price of risk (which is the variance of the market price of risk) and the discount factor (which is the inverse of the expected market price of risk). The threshold is endogenously determined so that the probability of the price of risk exceeding it is also the probability of distress of the asset. The price of risk can be estimated via different methods, for instance derived from the VIX or from the factors in a Fama-MacBeth regression.
April 1, 2011
A network analysis of global banking: 1978–2009
Description: In this paper we explore the properties of the global banking network using cross-border bank lending data for 184 countries over 1978-2009. Specifically, we analyze financial interconnectedness using network metrics of centrality, connectivity, and clustering. We document a relatively unstable global banking network, with structural breaks in network indicators identifying several waves of capital flows. Interconnectedness rankings, especially for borrowers, are relatively volatile over the period. Connectivity tends to fall during and after systemic banking crises and sovereign debt crises. The 2008-09 global financial crisis stands out as an unusually large perturbation to the cross-border banking network.
April 1, 2011
Reconsidering the Role of Food Prices in Inflation
Description: Food prices are generally excluded from measures of inflation most closely watched by policymakers due either to their transitory nature or their higher volatility. However, in lower income countries, food price inflation is not only more volatile but also on average higher than nonfood inflation. Food inflation is also in many cases more persistent than nonfood inflation, and shocks in many countries are propagated strongly into nonfood inflation. Under these conditions, and particularly given high global commodity price inflation in recent years, a policy focus on measures of core inflation that exclude food prices can misspecify inflation, leading to higher inflationary expectations, a downward bias to forecasts of future inflation and lags in policy responses. In constructing measures of core inflation, policymakers should therefore not assume that excluding food price inflation will provide a clearer picture of underlying inflation trends than headline inflation.