Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress: A Proposed Set of Indicators
IMF Working Papers, April 1, 2011
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- Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress: A Proposed Set of Indicators
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Bibliographic details
- Authors: James McHugh, Iva Petrova, Emanuele Baldacci
- Published: April 1, 2011
- Series: IMF Working Papers
Authors and Publication
- By James McHugh, Iva Petrova, Emanuele Baldacci
- April 1, 2011
- IMF Working Papers
- Working Paper No. 2011/094
- Issue: 094
- Volume: 2011
- Pages: 20
- Stock No: WPIEA2011094
- ISBN: 9781455253333
- ISSN: 1018-5941
- Citation example provided: James McHugh, Iva Petrova, and Emanuele Baldacci. "Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress: A Proposed Set of Indicators", IMF Working Papers 2011, 094 (2011), accessed 9/17/2026
Research objective and conceptual framework
- Proposes a set of fiscal indicators to assess rollover risks using the conceptual framework developed by Cottarelli (2011).
- Aim: provide early warning signals about the manifestation of rollover and fiscal risks so policymakers can adjust policies before extreme fiscal stress events.
Indicators and aggregate indices
- Two aggregate indices are calculated:
- An index of fiscal vulnerability
- An index of fiscal stress
- Indicators focus on rollover risks, medium-term debt dynamics, aging-related spending pressures, composition of public debt, and overall fiscal position.
Key findings and comparative results
- Advanced economies:
- Both indices (fiscal vulnerability and fiscal stress) are elevated for advanced economies.
- Elevated indices reflect unfavorable medium-term debt dynamics and aging-related spending pressures.
- Emerging economies:
- Solvency risks are lower compared with advanced economies.
- The composition of public debt remains a source of risk.
- The fiscal position is weaker than before the crisis.
Subjects and keywords
- Subject: Asset and liability management, Debt refinancing, Fiscal risks, Fiscal stance, Public debt
- Keywords: debt, government debt, short-term debt, WP
Accessibility and formats
- Available as an IMF Working Paper; PDF download and other formats indicated on the landing page.
- “Download PDF” and “More Formats on IMF eLibrary” options noted on the page.
Disclaimer noted on the page
- “This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.”
Source: IMF web landing page for "Measuring Fiscal Vulnerability and Fiscal Stress: A Proposed Set of Indicators" (IMF Working Paper No. 2011/094).