Working Papers
2012
March 1, 2012
Narrowing Vertical Fiscal Imbalances in Four European Countries
Description: This paper describes the institutional changes that have induced a decline in the vertical fiscal imbalance (VFI) - defined as the share of sub-national own spending not financed through own revenues - in four European countries: Belgium, Italy, Norway, and Spain. The decline in VFI was achieved through progressive devolution of revenues to sub-national governments in Belgium, Italy, and Spain, while re-centralization of health sector expenditures was the cause of the decline in the VFI in Norway.
March 1, 2012
Revisiting Risk-Weighted Assets
Description: In this paper, we provide an overview of the concerns surrounding the variations in the calculation of risk-weighted assets (RWAs) across banks and jurisdictions and how this might undermine the Basel III capital adequacy framework. We discuss the key drivers behind the differences in these calculations, drawing upon a sample of systemically important banks from Europe, North America, and Asia Pacific. We then discuss a range of policy options that could be explored to fix the actual and perceived problems with RWAs, and improve the use of risk-sensitive capital ratios.
March 1, 2012
Commodity Prices and Inflation Expectations in the United States
Description: U.S. monetary policy can remain extraordinarily accommodative only if longer-term inflation expectations stay well-anchored, including in response to commodity price shocks. We find that oil price shocks have a statistically significant, but economically small impact on longer-term inflation compensation embedded in U.S. Treasury bonds. The estimated effect is larger for the post-crisis period, and robust to controlling for measures of liquidity risk premia. Oil price shocks are also correlated with the variance of longer-term inflation expectations in the University of Michigan Survey of Consumers in the post-crisis period. These results are not attributable to looser monetary policy - oil price increases were associated with expectations of a faster monetary tightening after the crisis. Overall, the findings are consistent with some impact of commodity prices on long-term inflation expectations and/or on inflation rate risk.
March 1, 2012
Spillover Effects of Exchange Rates: A Study of the Renminbi
Description: This paper estimates the impact of China's exchange rate changes on exports of competitor countries in third markets, which we call the "spillover effect". We use recent theory to develop an identification strategy in which competition between China and its developing country competitors in specific products and destinations plays a key role. We exploit the variation - afforded by disaggregated trade data - across exporters, importers, product, and time to estimate this spillover effect. We find robust evidence of a statistically and quantitatively significant spillover effect. Our estimates suggest that a 10 percent appreciation of China's real exchange rate boosts on average a developing country's exports of a typical 4-digit HS product category to third markets by about 1.5-2 percent. The magnitude of the spillover effect varies systematically with product characteristics as implied by theory.
March 1, 2012
Institutional Transformations, Polity and Economic Outcomes: Testing the North-Wallis-Weingast Doorsteps Framework
Description: This paper tests the theoretical framework developed by North, Wallis and Weingast (2009) on the transition from closed to open access societies. They posit that societies need to go through three doorsteps: (i) the establishment of rule of law among elites; (ii) the adoption of perpetually existing organizations; and (iii) the political control of the military. We identify indicators reflecting these doorsteps and graphically test the correlation between them and a set of political and economic variables. Finally, through Identification through Heteroskedasticity we test these relationships econometrically. The paper broadly confirms the logic behind the doorsteps as necessary steps in the transition to open access societies. The doorsteps influence economic and political processes, as well as each other, with varying intensity. We also identify income inequality as a potentially important force leading to social change.
March 1, 2012
The Global Welfare Impact of China: Trade Integration and Technological Change
Description: This paper evaluates the global welfare impact of China's trade integration and technological change in a quantitative Ricardian-Heckscher-Ohlin model implemented on 75 countries. We simulate two alternative productivity growth scenarios: a "balanced" one in which China's productivity grows at the same rate in each sector, and an "unbalanced" one in which China's comparative disadvantage sectors catch up disproportionately faster to the world productivity frontier. Contrary to a well-known conjecture (Samuelson, 2004), the large majority of countries in the sample, including the developed ones, experience an order of magnitude larger welfare gains when China's productivity growth is biased towards its comparative disadvantage sectors. We demonstrate both analytically and quantitatively that this finding is driven by the inherently multilateral nature of world trade. As a separate but related exercise we quantify the worldwide welfare gains from China's trade integration.
March 1, 2012
Macrofinance Model of the Czech Economy: Asset Allocation Perspective
Description: The paper developes a VAR macrofinance model of the Czech economy. It shows that yield misalignments from the yields implied by the macrofinance model partially determine subsequent yield changes over three to nine months. These yield misalignments tend to persist for a number of months. This persistence of the misalignments was explained by (a) the fact that the macro-economy influences asset markets only at lower frequencies, (b) the liquidity effect particularly during the times of capital inflows to Czech Republic, and (c) the fact that not all misalignments were greater than their historical one standard deviation.
March 1, 2012
BRICs’ Philosophies for Development Financing and their Implications for LICs
Description: Flows of development financing from the BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) to low income countries (LICs) have surged in recent years. Unlike aid from traditional donors, BRICs (excluding Russia) view their financing as primarily based on the principles of South-South cooperation, focusing on mutual benefits without attachment of policy conditionality. This paper provides an overview of the philosophies and modalities of BRIC financing and examines their implications for LIC economies and future LIC-BRIC engagement.
March 1, 2012
Exchange Rate Volatility Under Peg: Do Trade Patterns Matter?
Description: This paper assesses the role of trade patterns in shaping the volatility of the effective exchange rate under two alternative peg regimes: a hard peg to a single currency and a peg to a basket of currencies. I link the changes in the nominal effective exchange rate of a pegged currency to the fluctuations of its anchor vis-a-vis other major currencies, with an emphasis on the dynamics of trade patterns. In an application to the WAEMU (West African Economic and Monetary Union), I find that the nominal effective exchange rate of the union was twice as volatile under the hard peg to the euro as it would have been under a hypothetical basket peg over the past decade. This result was driven by the substantial shifts that occurred in WAEMU trade patterns, away from euro area countries and toward the ?"BICs" (Brazil, India, and China). These findings suggest that policymakers should pay as much attention to the type of peg as to pegging in itself, with a particular focus on the dynamics of trade patterns.
March 1, 2012
Are Foreign Aid and Remittance Inflows a Hedge Against Food Price Shocks?
Description: This paper explores the role of foreign aid and remittance inflows in the mitigation of the effects of food price shocks. Using a large sample of developing countries and mobilising dynamic panel data specifications, the econometric results yield two important findings. First, remittance and aid inflows significantly dampen the effect of food price shocks in the most vulnerable countries. Second, a lower remittance-to-GDP ratio is required in order to fully absorb the effects of food price shocks compared to the corresponding aid-to-GDP ratio.