Working Papers
2015
March 16, 2015
A Stock-Flow Accounting Model of the Labor Market: An Application to Israel
Description: The paper utilizes a theoretical stock-flow accounting model of the labor market, similar to Blanchard and Diamond (1989). Identifying restrictions are derived from the theoretical model and are imposed on a SVAR system. The estimation allows for decomposing fluctuations to their cyclical and structural components. The model is applied to the Israeli economy. The estimates suggest that non-cyclical factors account for at least half of the decline of the unemployment rate during the period between 2004-Q1, when unemployment peaked at 10.9 percent, and 2011-Q4, when it marked a trough at 5.4 percent; suggesting a shift inward of the Beveridge curve.
March 13, 2015
How Inclusive Is Abenomics?
Description: We assess the ongoing reform efforts in Japan in terms of inclusive growth. We use prefectural level panel data to regress a measure of inclusive growth, which incorporates both average income growth and income inequality, on macroeconomic and policy variables. Our analysis suggests that achieving the Bank of Japan’s 2 percent inflation target has a positive effect on average income growth, but an adverse effect on income equality. The package of structural reforms planned under Abenomics is found to be effective in increasing both average income growth and income equality. The main policy implication of our analysis is that full implementation of structural reforms– especially labor market reforms–is necessary to both foster growth and increase equality.
March 11, 2015
Pressing the Indian Growth Accelerator: Policy Imperatives
Description: India’s real GDP growth slipped substantially after the North Atlantic financial crisis. Return to a sustained high growth trajectory is feasible but it will need much more focused attention to the revival of manufacturing and to the acceleration of investment in transport and infrastructure. The immediate priority is to achieve the kind of fiscal quality and low inflation levels exhibited during 2003-08, with focused attention to increasing efficiency and compliance in tax revenue collection. Higher tax revenues can facilitate increases in public investment, which then crowd in private investment. The task ahead will be more difficult in view of the protracted slowdown in global growth and trade.
March 5, 2015
How Delaying Fiscal Consolidation Affects the Present Value of GDP
Description: We develop a simple model to examine the conditions under which delaying fiscal consolidation can affect the present value of GDP via the fiscal stance’s effects on the output gap and hysteresis. We find that the absolute size of the fiscal multiplier—the focus of much empirical investigation and policy debate—is likely inconsequential in this regard. Rather, what matters is the degree to which the multiplier during the initial period of fiscal stimulus differs from the multiplier when the stimulus is withdrawn. If the multiplier is constant over time, delaying consolidation is unlikely to significantly boost the present value of GDP via effects on the output gap and hysteresis. The potential success of such efforts relies instead on exploiting time-variation in multipliers.
March 4, 2015
Structural Transformation — How Does Thailand Compare?
Description: Thailand stands out in international comparison as a country with a high dispersion of productivity across sectors. It has especially low labor productivity in agriculture—a sector that employs a much larger share of the population than is typical for a country at Thailand’s level of income. This suggests large potential productivity gains from labor reallocation across sectors, but that process—which made a significant contribution to Thailand’s growth in the past—appears to have stalled lately. This paper establishes these facts and applies a simple model to discuss possible explanations. The reasons include a gap between the skills possessed by rural workers and those required in the modern sectors; the government’s price support programs for several agricultural commodities, particularly rice; and the uniform minimum wage. At the same time, agriculture plays a useful social and economic role as the employer of last resort. The paper makes a number of policy recommendations aimed at facilitating structural transformation in the Thai economy.
March 2, 2015
A Global Projection Model for Euro Area Large Economies
Description: The GPM project is designed to improve the toolkit for studying both own-country and cross-country linkages. This paper creates a special version of GPM that includes the four largest Euro Area (EA) countries. The EA countries are more vulnerable to domestic and external demand shocks because adjustments in the real exchange rate between EA countries occur more gradually through inflation differentials. Spillovers from tight credit conditions in each EA country are limited by direct trade channels and small confidence spillovers, but we also consider scenarios where banks in all EU countries tighten credit conditions simultaneously.
March 2, 2015
Remittances and Macroeconomic Volatility in African Countries
Description: This paper investigates the channels through which remittances affect macroeconomic volatility in African countries using a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) model augmented with financial frictions. Empirical results indicate that remittances—as a share of GDP—have a significant smoothing impact on output volatility but their impact on consumption volatility is somewhat small. Furthermore, remittances are found to absorb a substantial amount of GDP shocks in these countries. An investigation of the theoretical channels shows that the stabilization impact of remittances essentially hinges on two channels: (i) the size of the negative wealth effect on labor supply induced by remittances and, (ii) the strength of financial frictions and the ability of remittances to alleviate these frictions.
February 27, 2015
The Level of Productivity in Traded and Non-Traded Sectors for a Large Panel of Countries
Description: This paper explains in detail the construction of series for productivity in the traded and nontraded sectors for a panel of 56 countries spanning 1989–2012. The level of productivity in each sector is defined as real value added per worker in constant 2005 Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) U.S. dollars. To construct these series, we collect industry-level data from several sources, and classify individual industries as traded/non-traded using their ratio of exports to value added. Finally, we aggregate the industry data up to a traded sector and a non-traded sector, accordingly. This new dataset has two main advantages relative to existing datasets: (i) it defines more finely the traded/non-traded sectors, by drawing on much more disaggregated industry source data; and (ii) it allows for meaningful comparisons of the level of productivity across countries/sectors because sectoral productivity is adjusted by its own price level.
February 27, 2015
Interconnectedness, Systemic Crises and Recessions
Description: This relatively simple model attempts to capture and integrate four widely held views about financial crises. [1] Interconnectedness among financial institutions (banks) can play a major role in precipitating systemic financial crises. [2] Lack of information about the quality of bank portfolios also plays a role in precipitating systemic crises. [3] Financial crises, particularly systemic ones, are often followed by severe, lengthy recessions. [4] Loss of confidence in the financial system is partly responsible for the length and severity of these recessions. In the model, banks make decisions about initiating and liquidating risky loans. Interconnectedness among their asset portfolios can obscure information about these portfolios, causing them to make inefficient decisions about liquidation, and about retention of the managers who assess credit risk. These decisions can increase the depth of recessions, and they can produce systemic financial crises. They can also reduce the effectiveness of future bank risk assessment, increasing the probability of lengthy, severe recessions. The government, acting in the interest of current and future depositors, may wish to increase the transparency of bank portfolios by limiting interconnectedness. The optimal degree of regulation, which may depend on depositors’ degree of risk aversion, may not eliminate financial crises.
February 27, 2015
Made in Mexico: Energy Reform and Manufacturing Growth
Description: This paper assesses the real effects of the energy reform in Mexico by looking at its impact on manufacturing output through changes in energy prices. Using sub-sector and state-level manufacturing output data, along with past variation in energy prices, we find electricity prices––relative to oil and gas––to be more important in the manufacturing process, with a one standard deviation reduction in electricity prices leading to a 2.8 percent increase in manufacturing output. Our estimated elasticities together with plausible reductions in electricity tariffs derived from the energy reform, could increase manufacturing output by up to 3.6 percent, and overall real GDP by 0.6 percent. Larger reductions are possible over the long run if increased efficiency in the sector leads electricity prices to converge to U.S. levels. Moreover, including the impact of lower electricity tariffs on the services sector, could lead to significantly larger effects on GDP. Accounting for endogeneity of unit labor costs in a panel VAR setting leads to an additional indirect channel which amplifies the impact of electricity prices on output.