Working Papers
2016
July 11, 2016
South Africa: Labor Market Dynamics and Inequality
Description: This paper analyzes the determinants of high unemployment in South Africa by studying labor market dynamics using individual level panel data from the Quarterly Labor Force Survey. While prior work experience and gender are found to be important determinants of the job-finding rate, education attainment and race are important determinants of the job-exit rate. Using stock-flow equations, counterfactual exercises are conducted to quantify the role of these different transition rates on unemployment. The paper also explores the contribution of unemployment towards inequality. Reducing unemployment is found to be important for reducing inequality – estimates suggest that a 10 percentage point reduction in unemployment lowers the Gini coefficient by 3 percent. Achieving a similar reduction solely through transfers would require a 40 percent increase in government transfers.
July 11, 2016
The Dynamics of Sovereign Debt Crises and Bailouts
Description: Motivated by the recent European debt crisis, this paper investigates the scope for a bailout guarantee in a sovereign debt crisis. Defaults may arise from negative income shocks, government impatience or a "sunspot"-coordinated buyers strike. We introduce a bailout agency, and characterize the minimal actuarially fair intervention that guarantees the no-buyers-strike fundamental equilibrium, relying on the market for residual financing. The intervention makes it cheaper for governments to borrow, inducing them borrow more, leaving default probabilities possibly rather unchanged. The maximal backstop will be pulled precisely when fundamentals worsen.
July 11, 2016
Insolvency and Enforcement Reforms in Italy
Description: Italian banks are burdened with high levels of nonperforming loans, the cleanup of which depends in important part on the efficiency of insolvency and enforcement processes. Traditionally, these processes in Italy have taken very long, hampering the timely cleanup of balance sheets. In response, the authorities have legislated a number of measures. This paper explores the recent insolvency and enforcement reforms and the remaining challenges. These reforms introduce important positive changes that are expected to yield full benefits over the medium to long term. The efficacy of the reforms, including to deal with the current stock of high nonperforming loans, can be enhanced by introducing effective out-of-court enforcement mechanisms, supplemented by a more intensive use of informal and hybrid debt-restructuring solutions. Moreover, there is an urgent need to rationalize the system, which over the years has become very complex and intricate.
July 8, 2016
Fixed Base Year vs. Chain Linking in National Accounts: Experience of Sub-Saharan African Countries
Description: There are two approaches for producing volume estimates of GDP, fixed base year and annual chaining. While most advanced economies have adopted the chain-linked approach in the past twenty years, some African countries are hesitant to do so, in part because of the computation and data requirements, and resource constraints. What difference does this make for the accuracy of the growth rates? From detailed data provided by three Sub-Saharan African countries we run simulations and conclude that the differences of GDP growth using the two approaches are small and do not behave in the consistent way found in advanced countries. We also show that weak deflation techniques and overly aggregated classifications used to derive volume measures can lead to large distortions. We conclude that improved deflation techniques and detailed classification should be addressed before adopting chain linking.
July 6, 2016
Inflation, Financial Developments, and Wealth Distribution
Description: We find that from 1995 to 2002 in China, the dispersion of wealth decreased, the moneywealth ratio increased for all wealth levels and the aggregate money-output ratio increased. We develop a two-asset dynamic general equilibrium model in which households face a portfolio adjustment cost and a borrowing constraint. We find that financial development lowers the dispersion of wealth by reducing the precautionary motive of households. In addition, tight monetary policies increase the value of money and thus increase the moneywealth ratio for all wealth levels and the aggregate money-output ratio.
July 6, 2016
An Analysis of OPEC’s Strategic Actions, US Shale Growth and the 2014 Oil Price Crash
Description: In November 2014, OPEC announced a new strategy geared towards improving its market share. Oil-market analysts interpreted this as an attempt to squeeze higher-cost producers including US shale oil out of the market. Over the next year, crude oil prices crashed, with large repercussions for the global economy. We present a simple equilibrium model that explains the fundamental market factors that can rationalize such a "regime switch" by OPEC. These include: (i) the growth of US shale oil production; (ii) the slowdown of global oil demand; (iii) reduced cohesiveness of the OPEC cartel; (iv) production ramp-ups in other non-OPEC countries. We show that these qualitative predictions are broadly consistent with oil market developments during 2014-15. The model is calibrated to oil market data; it predicts accommodation up to 2014 and a market-share strategy thereafter, and explains large oil-price swings as well as realistically high levels of OPEC output.
July 6, 2016
A Network Model of Multilaterally Equilibrium Exchange Rates
Description: This paper proposes a network model of multilaterally equilibrium exchange rates. The model introduces a topological component into the exchange rate analysis, consistently taking into account simultaneous higher-order interactions among all currencies. The paper defines the currency demand indicator. On its base, it derives a multilateral exchange rate network, finds its dynamically stationary position, and identifies the multilaterally equilibrium levels of bilateral exchanges rates. Potentially, the model can be developed further to calculate the deviations of the observed bilateral exchange rates from their multilaterally equilibrium levels, which can be interpreted as their over- or undervaluation. For illustration, the model is applied to daily 1995-2016 exchange rates among 130 currencies sourced from the Thomson Reuters Datastream.
July 6, 2016
Outside the Band: Depreciation and Inflation Dynamics in Chile
Description: This paper examines inflation dynamics in Chile during the last peso depreciation episode 2013-15. The evidence is for substantial pass-through effects to inflation, given the large and persistent depreciation movement. Widespread indexation practices in non-traded goods markets are found to amplify the inflation response to the depreciation, while the role of wage indexation is less relevant to the inflation dynamics. Overall, inflation would have remained within the central bank’s target band absent the peso depreciation. The analysis also shows that tightening monetary policy in response to a depreciation shock can be costly in terms of output: the response of activity to rates is found to be strong, while the transmission from activity to inflation is found to be weak. Simulations under uncertainty about the extent of the pass-through also suggest that monetary policy can play a countercyclical role in the face of depreciation shocks at a moderate inflationary cost, as long as inflation expectations remain anchored.
July 5, 2016
U.S. Corporate Income Tax Reform and its Spillovers
Description: This paper examines the main distortions of the U.S. corporate income tax (CIT), focusing on its international aspects, and proposes a set of reforms to alleviate them. A bold reform to replace the CIT with a corporate-level rent tax could induce efficiency-enhancing reform of the international tax system. Since fundamental reform is politically difficult, this paper also proposes an incremental reform that would reduce tax expenditures, reduce the CIT rate to 25-28 percent, and impose a minimum rent tax on foreign earnings. Finally, this paper analyzes empirically the likely impact of the incremental on corporate revenues outside the U.S.: Though a U.S. rate cut would likely lower revenues elsewhere, implementation of a strong minimum tax could more than offset that effect for most countries with effective tax rates above 15 percent.
July 5, 2016
U.S. Dollar Dynamics: How Important Are Policy Divergence and FX Risk Premiums?
Description: We investigate the drivers of dynamics of major U.S. FX bilaterals. We first construct a novel measure of FX risk premiums using Consensus exchange rate forecasts. We then use VAR analysis to show that (i) risk premium shocks play a key role in driving dynamics of the major U.S. FX bilaterals; (ii) longer-term interest differentials also matter, especially for the Canadian $ and the Euro; (iii) oil price shocks play a particularly important role for the Canadian $ (an oil exporter); and (iv) risk appetite shocks (e.g., VIX shocks) generally lead to U.S. dollar appreciation. The importance of risk premium and longer-term interest differential shocks fit well with a simple theoretical model and are supported by recent event studies.