Working Papers
2016
March 8, 2016
Seeing in the Dark: A Machine-Learning Approach to Nowcasting in Lebanon
Description: Macroeconomic analysis in Lebanon presents a distinct challenge. For example, long delays in the publication of GDP data mean that our analysis often relies on proxy variables, and resembles an extended version of the “nowcasting” challenge familiar to many central banks. Addressing this problem—and mindful of the pitfalls of extracting information from a large number of correlated proxies—we explore some recent techniques from the machine learning literature. We focus on two popular techniques (Elastic Net regression and Random Forests) and provide an estimation procedure that is intuitively familiar and well suited to the challenging features of Lebanon’s data.
March 8, 2016
Inflation Targeting and Exchange Rate Management In Less Developed Countries
Description: We analyze coordination of monetary and exchange rate policy in a two-sector model of a small open economy featuring imperfect substitution between domestic and foreign financial assets. Our central finding is that management of the exchange rate greatly enhances the efficacy of inflation targeting. In a flexible exchange rate system, inflation targeting incurs a high risk of indeterminacy where macroeconomic fluctuations can be driven by self-fulfilling expectations. Moreover, small inflation shocks may escalate into much larger increases in inflation ex post. Both problems disappear when the central bank leans heavily against the wind in a managed float.
March 8, 2016
Has Globalization Really Increased Business Cycle Synchronization?
Description: This paper assesses the strength of business cycle synchronization between 1950 and 2014 in a sample of 21 countries using a new quarterly dataset based on IMF archival data. Contrary to the common wisdom, we find that the globalization period is not associated with more output synchronization at the global level. The world business cycle was as strong during Bretton Woods (1950-1971) than during the Globalization period (1984-2006). Although globalization did not affect the average level of co-movement, trade and financial integration strongly affect the way countries co-move with the rest of the world. We find that financial integration de-synchronizes national outputs from the world cycle, although the magnitude of this effect depends crucially on the type of shocks hitting the world economy. This de-synchronizing effect has offset the synchronizing impact of other forces, such as increased trade integration.
March 8, 2016
Caribbean Energy: Macro-Related Challenges
Description: High energy costs contribute to dampening Caribbean competitiveness and potential growth. This paper overviews power sector challenges and takes stock of national and regional strategies to address them. It presents recommendations to move the energy agenda forward based on analyses of macro-aspects of energy reform. These include: i) quantitative assessment of the impact of energy costs on growth and competitiveness; ii) evaluation of gains from implementing announced renewable energy and energy efficiency targets; and iii) analysis of the impact of energy investments on debt sustainability. The paper argues for a bigger role for the private sector in energy reform and discusses prerequisites for good public-private partnerships.
March 7, 2016
Singapore’s Export Elasticities: A Disaggregated Look into the Role of Global Value Chains and Economic Complexity
Description: Singapore is one of the world’s most open economies, with the size of its trade reaching about 350 percent of its GDP. With the rise of highly diversified cross-border production networks, Singapore has come to play an integral role in the global supply chain with heavy reliance on foreign contents in its exports and production. It has also successfully moved up the value chain, exporting goods with high sophistication and economic complexity. Against this backdrop, in this paper, using disaggregate industry/product level trade data, we revisit Singapore’s export elasticities and find that growing participation in global production chains and rising export complexity are important determinants.
March 7, 2016
China’s Imports Slowdown: Spillovers, Spillins, and Spillbacks
Description: The paper models international spillovers from a hypothetical drop of China’s imports as a result of China’s rebalancing of its growth model. A network-based model used in the paper allows capturing higher round network effects of the shock, which are largely unaccounted for in the existing literature. Such effects include direct spillovers from China on its trading partners, subsequent spillins among them, and spillbacks on China itself. The paper finds that the network effects most likely will be substantial, may amplify initial shock, and change the direction of its propagation. The impact on Asia and Pacific will be the strongest followed by the Middle East and Central Asia. The impact on sub-Saharan Africa would be noticeable only for some countries. Spillovers on Europe, including the Euro area, will be moderate, and spillovers on the Western Hemisphere, including the United States, would be very marginal. Metal and non-fuel commodity exporters may experience the largest negative impact.
March 7, 2016
Gender Diversity in Senior Positions and Firm Performance: Evidence from Europe
Description: This paper examines the link between gender diversity in senior corporate positions and financial performance of 2 million companies in Europe. We document a positive association between corporate return on assets and the share of women in senior positions and establish two potential channels through which gender diversity may affect firm performance. The positive correlation is more pronounced in, first, sectors where women form a larger share of the labor force (such as the services sector) and, second, where complementarities in skills and critical thinking are in high demand (such as high-tech and knowledge-intensive sectors).
March 7, 2016
Individual Choice or Policies? Drivers of Female Employment in Europe
Description: Female labor force participation has increased markedly in many European countries during the past decades. Nonetheless, participation rates remain low in some economies, and a significant gender gap persists in most countries. Using micro-level data to control for factors that influence personal choice, we re-examine the determinants of female employment in Europe. The results highlight the importance of positive attitudes towards women working and individual characteristics such as years of education and number of children. However, even after controlling for these factors, policies are also key drivers of female employment.
March 4, 2016
Sharing the Growth Dividend: Analysis of Inequality in Asia
Description: This paper focusses on income inequality in Asia, its drivers and policies to combat it. It finds that income inequality has risen in most of Asia, in contrast to many regions. While in the past, rapid growth in Asia has come with equitable distribution of the gains, more recently fast-growing Asian economies have been unable to replicate the “growth with equity” miracle. There is a growing consensus that high levels of inequality can hamper the pace and sustainability of growth. The paper argues that policies could have a substantial effect on reversing the trend of rising inequality. It is imperative to address inequality of opportunities, in particular to broaden access to education, health, and financial services. Also fiscal policy could combat rising inequality, including by expanding and broadening the coverage of social spending, improving tax progressivity, and boosting compliance. Further efforts to promote financial inclusion, while maintaining financial stability, can help.
March 2, 2016
Macroeconomic Impact of Product and Labor Market Reforms on Informality and Unemployment in India
Description: This paper investigates the implications of lowering formal regulations in labor and product markets on informality and macroeconomic outcomes in India. We estimate a DSGE model with an informal sector, and rigidities in the formal labor and product markets. Along with increasing GDP and employment, deregulation also leads to lower informality and greater product market competition. Slow reallocation of resources between the formal and informal sectors leads to some adverse impacts in the short run that can be minimized by implementing a combined package of reforms. These impacts are shown to be greater in an economy with a larger informal sector.