Working Papers
2018
August 2, 2018
Size Dependent Policies, Informality and Misallocation
Description: We examine the effect of size-dependent policies in developing economies by focusing on a set of regulations that are applicable to firms with 20 or more formal employees in Peru. Firms can adjust to the regulations by (a) reducing their size, (b) shifting employment composition, or (c) splitting into subunits that fall below the regulatory threshold. We show that these actions are consistent with observed discontinuities in the distributions of firm size and employment composition. We extend the framework proposed by Garicano et al. (2016) to model and estimate the Peruvian economy and perform counterfactual exercises. Size-dependent regulations are costly for the economy, especially in the presence of labor market rigidities, and lead to lower aggregate wages, profits, and output. We also find that access to informal labor does not mitigate the economic impact of the size-dependent regulations, as the increase in informal employment is largely offset by a decline in formal employment.
August 2, 2018
A Behavioral Approach to Financial Supervision, Regulation, and Central Banking
Description: This paper describes how behavioral elements are relevant to financial supervision, regulation, and central banking. It focuses on (1) behavioral effects of norms (social, legal, and market); (2) behavior of others (internalization, identification, and compliance); and (3) psychological biases. It stresses that financial supervisors, regulators, and central banks have not yet realized the full potential that these behavioral elements hold. To do so, they need to devise a behavioral approach that includes aspects relating to individual and group behavior. The paper provides case examples of experiments with such an approach, including behavioral supervision. Finally, it highlights areas for further research.
August 2, 2018
Inflation Expectations Anchoring Across Different Types of Agents: the Case of South Africa
Description: Inflation forecasts are modelled as monotonically diverging from an estimated long-run anchor point, or “implicit anchor”, towards actual inflation as the forecast horizon shortens. Fitting the model with forecasts by analysts, businesses and trade unions for South Africa, we find that inflation expectations have become increasingly strongly anchored. That is, the degree to which the estimated implicit anchor pins down inflation expectations at longer horizons has generally increased. Estimated inflation anchors of analysts lie within the 3–6 percent inflation target range of the central bank. However, the implicit anchors of businesses and trade unions, who are directly involved in the setting of wages and prices that drive the inflation process, have remained above the top end of the official target range. Possible explanations for these phenomena are discussed.
August 2, 2018
Legal Protection: Liability and Immunity Arrangements of Central Banks and Financial Supervisors
Description: This paper argues that central bank legal protection contributes to safeguarding a central bank and its financial supervisor’s independence, especially for conducting monetary and financial stability policy. However, such legal protection also entails enhanced accountability. To this end, the paper provides a selected overview of legal protection for central banks and financial supervisors (if the supervisor is part of the central bank), focusing on liability, immunity, and indemnification arrangements, and based on the IMF’s Central Bank Legislation Database. The paper also uses data from the IMF’s Article IV and FSAP Database, and the IMF MCM’s Technical Assistance Database. It lists selected country cases for illustrative purposes. It introduces the concepts of “appropriate legal protection” and “function-specific legal protection” as topics for further research.
August 2, 2018
Using Administrative Data to Enhance Policymaking in Developing Countries: Tax Data and the National Accounts
Description: Statistical agencies worldwide are increasingly turning to new data sources, including administrative data, to improve statistical coverage. Administrative data can significantly enhance the quality of national statistics and produce synergies with tax administration and other government agencies, supporting better decision making, policy advice, and economic performance. Compared to economic censuses and business surveys, administrative data are less burdensome to collect and produce more timely, detailed, and accurate data with better coverage. This paper specifically explores the use of value added tax and income tax records to enhance the compilation of national accounts statistics.
July 31, 2018
Universal Basic Income in Developing Countries: Issues, Options, and Illustration for India
Description: This paper discusses two common arguments for the adoption of a UBI; that it can be a more effective way of supporting low-income households when existing safety net programs are inefficient, and that it can generate broad support for structural reforms. Using India as an illustration, the paper discusses the trade-offs that need to be recognized in adopting a UBI in these contexts. It shows that replacing the 2011 Public Distribution System (PDS) with a UBI results in losses for many low-income households, although much of this can be reduced by recycling the “out-of-system” PDS losses and the fiscal savings from excluding the highest-income groups as higher UBI transfers. In contrast, replacing inefficient energy subsidies—raising energy prices to efficient levels to internalize the negative environmental externalities of energy consumption—could simultaneously deliver unambiguous distributional gains, help address fiscal pressures, and improve energy efficiency with associated environmental and health gains. Implementing such reforms would, of course, require careful communication and implementation to address political barriers to reform.
July 30, 2018
Monetary Policy Credibility and Exchange Rate Pass-Through in South Africa
Description: This paper investigates the key factors that explain the documented decline in the exchange rate pass-through in South Africa over the past two decades, which coincides with the adoption of the inflation-targeting regime. The paper conjectures, in line with the literature, that this outcome is largely due to improved monetary policy credibility. To do this, it first documents the factors that explain monetary policy credibility. Using the standard deviation of individual inflation forecasts as a measure of monetary policy credibility, its shows that the latter is negatively affected by the level of inflation itself, monetary policy uncertainty, and a measure of the unobserved stochastic volatility of inflation. The second phase proceeds by analyzing the determinants of the pass-through using the monetary policy credibility index derived from the first phase. The paper confirms the remarkable achievement that, despite the many shocks that the economy has witnessed, the declining pass-through is indeed explained by the improving monetary policy credibility.
July 27, 2018
Demographics and Interest Rates in Asia
Description: Demographic developments have been regarded as one important cause of the long-term movement in global interest rates. This paper provides empirical evidence of the relationship between demographics and interest rates over a wide sample of advanced and emerging market economies. It also finds that capital account openness limits the direct sensitivity of a country’s interest rates to its own demographics. The results suggest that future demographic developments will continue to apply downward pressure on the interest rates in Asia which foresees a rapid aging.
July 27, 2018
Heterogeneity and Persistence in Returns to Wealth
Description: We provide a systematic analysis of the properties of individual returns to wealth using twelve years of population data from Norway’s administrative tax records. We document a number of novel results. First, during our sample period individuals earn markedly different average returns on their financial assets (a standard deviation of 14%) and on their net worth (a standard deviation of 8%). Second, heterogeneity in returns does not arise merely from differences in the allocation of wealth between safe and risky assets: returns are heterogeneous even within asset classes. Third, returns are positively correlated with wealth: moving from the 10th to the 90th percentile of the financial wealth distribution increases the return by 3 percentage points - and by 17 percentage points when the same exercise is performed for the return to net worth. Fourth, wealth returns exhibit substantial persistence over time. We argue that while this persistence partly reflects stable differences in risk exposure and assets scale, it also reflects persistent heterogeneity in sophistication and financial information, as well as entrepreneurial talent. Finally, wealth returns are (mildly) correlated across generations. We discuss the implications of these findings for several strands of the wealth inequality debate.
July 27, 2018
Twin Deficits in Developing Economies
Description: This paper provides new evidence on the existence and magnitude of the “twin deficits” in developing economies. It finds that a one percent of GDP unanticipated increase in the government budget balance improves, on average, the current account balance by 0.8 percentage point of GDP. This effect is substantially larger than that obtained using standard measures of fiscal impulse, such as the cyclically-adjusted budget balance. The results point to heterogeneity across countries and over time. The effect tends to be larger: (i) during recessions; in countries (ii) that are more open to trade; (iii) that have less flexible exchange rate regimes; and (iv) with lower initial public debt-to-GDP ratios.