Working Papers
2014
September 17, 2014
Growth Surprises and Synchronized Slowdowns in Emerging Markets––An Empirical Investigation
Description: Output growth has slowed in several emerging markets since 2011—a remarkable feature for a non-crisis period in EMs. Such synchronized slowdowns were largely unanticipated by scholars and forecasters alike. In this paper we attempt to shed light on the main drivers of growth surprises and synchronized slowdowns in emerging markets post-global financial crisis. We find that lower trading partner demand was a key external factor in explaining these events during 2011–13, and that changes in external financing conditions have yet to play a role in EMs’ growth. On the domestic front, the withdrawal of the fiscal stimulus put in place right after the Lehman collapse is a relevant aspect in these episodes, compounding the effect of the weaker external demand. Idiosyncratic factors, such as structural bottlenecks with the potential to impair growth in a more lasting fashion, also seem to partly explain these events, as reflected in the larger residuals found in regression-based estimates for certain countries.
September 16, 2014
A Quality of Growth Index for Developing Countries: A Proposal
Description: This paper proposes a new quality of growth index (QGI) for developing countries. The index encompasses both the intrinsic nature and social dimensions of growth, and is computed for over 90 countries for the period 1990-2011. The approach is premised on the fact that not all growth is created equal in terms of social outcomes, and that it does matter how one reaches from one level of income to another for various theoretical and empirical reasons. The paper finds that the quality of growth has been improving in the vast majority of developing countries over the past two decades, although the rate of convergence is relatively slow. At the same time, there are considerable cross-country variations across income levels and regions. Finally, emprirical investigations point to the fact that main factors of the quality of growth are political stability, public pro-poor spending, macroeconomic stability, financial development, institutional quality and external factors such as FDI.
September 15, 2014
Bank Ownership and Credit Growth in Emerging Markets During and After the 2008–09 Financial Crisis — A Cross-Regional Comparison
Description: This paper examines bank credit growth in emerging markets before, during, and after the 2008-09 financial crisis using bank-level data, focusing on the role of bank ownership. Credit growth by foreign banks lagged behind that of domestic banks in 2009 in Asia, and in 2010 in Latin America and emerging Europe. State-owned banks instead played a counter-cyclical role during the crisis in particular in Latin America and emerging Europe, and credit by stateowned banks also grew faster than that of private banks after the crisis in Latin America. Expansionary monetary policy on average led to higher credit growth. Banks in Latin America and Asia that relied more on retail funding had higher credit growth, in particular during the crisis. Better-capitalized banks and banks with more liquid assets also had faster credit growth. Finally, banks in countries with stronger banking regulation had higher credit growth during the crisis.
September 15, 2014
Supervisory Roles in Loan Loss Provisioning in Countries Implementing IFRS
Description: Countries implementing International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) for loan loss provisioning by banks have been guided by two different approaches: International Accounting Standards (IAS) 39 and Basel standards. This paper discusses the different accounting and regulatory approaches in loan loss provisioning, and the challenges supervisors face when there are different perspectives and lack of guidance from IFRS. It suggests actions that supervisors can take to help banks meet regulatory and capital requirements and, at the same time, comply with accounting principles.
September 15, 2014
Reconsidering Bank Capital Regulation: A New Combination of Rules, Regulators, and Market Discipline
Description: Despite revisions to bank capital standards, fundamental shortcomings remain: the rules for setting capital requirements need to be simpler, and resolution should be an essential part of the capital requirement framework.We propose a new system of capital regulation that addresses these needs by making changes to all three pillars of bank regulation: only common equity should be recognized as capital for regulatory purposes, and risk weighting of assets should be abandoned; capital requirements should be assigned on an institution-by-institution basis according to a regulatory (s,S) approach developed in the paper; a standard for prompt, corrective action is incorporated into the (s,S) approach.
September 12, 2014
Optimal Maturity Structure of Sovereign Debt in Situation of Near Default
Description: We study the relationship between default and the maturity structure of the debt portfolio of a Sovereign, under uncertainty. The Sovereign faces a trade-off between a future costly default and a high current fiscal effort. This results into a debt crisis in case a large initial issuance of long term debt is followed by a sequence of negative macro shocks. Prior uncertainty about future fundamentals is then a source of default through its effect on long term interest rates and the optimal debt issuance. Intuitively, the Sovereign chooses a portfolio implying a risk of default because this risk generates a correlation between the future value of long term debt and future fundamentals. Long term debt serves as a hedging instrument against the risk on fundamentals. When expected fundamentals are high, the Sovereign issues a large amount of long term debt, the expected default probability increases, and so does the long term interest rate.
September 12, 2014
News and Monetary Shocks at a High Frequency: A Simple Approach
Description: We develop a simple approach to identify economic news and monetary shocks at a high frequency. The approach is used to examine financial market developments in the United States following the Federal Reserve’s May 22, 2013 taper talk suggesting that it would begin winding down its quantitative easing program. Our findings show that the sharp rise in 10-year Treasury bond yields immediately after the taper talk was largely due to monetary shocks, with positive economic news becoming increasingly important in subsequent months.
September 12, 2014
Financial Inclusion, Growth and Inequality: A Model Application to Colombia
Description: Financial inclusion has been one of the key pillars of Colombia’s development strategy for a number of years. Financial inclusion policies have aimed at channeling microcredit to poor, spreading formal banking system usage, fostering electronic payment acceptance, and making financial services more affordable. Using simulations from a general equilibrium model it is possible to identify the most binding financial sector frictions that preclude financial inclusion of enterprises, and study the effects on growth and inequality of efforts to remove these frictions. The study finds that lowering contraints on collateral promises higher growth while inequality is better tackled through measures that lower the financial participation cost.
September 12, 2014
Demand Patterns in France, Germany, and Belgium: Can We Explain the Differences?
Description: The need to revive Euro area growth highlights the importance of the evolution of domestic and external demand in the core. This paper puts recent demand patterns in France, Germany, and Belgium into historical perspective. We find that, first, dynamics for private consumption, non-residential business investment, and exports since 2008 is dominated by conventional determinants, with no discernible structural break as a result of the crisis. Second, although country-specific factors matter in some cases, demand patterns in these countries are largely driven by common determinants. Third, developments in common fundamentals tend to dominate demand dynamics, coupled, in a few cases, with structurally different elasticities across countries. Fourth, short-term analysis suggests a role for confidence and uncertainty factors in explaining temporary deviations of these variables from long-term fundamentals.
September 11, 2014
Budget Institutions in Low-Income Countries: Lessons from G-20
Description: This paper presents twelve budget institutions that can support planning and delivery of credible fiscal strategies in the fiscal policy-making process. The resulting framework is applied to seven low-income countries and the status of their budget institutions compared to the G-20 advanced and emerging market economies. The paper then presents recommendations for designing and implementing appropriate fiscal strategy for low- income countries. Particular attention is paid to prioritization and sequencing of reform efforts.